Sarah Palin not Experienced Enough?

I am trying to figure out how anyone can claim Sarah Palin is not experienced enough to be the VP. If you compare here to the other people that were the front runners out there, she is not doing too bad.

• Mitt Romney - one term as a governor, though he is an old white guy.
• Bobby Jindal - less than nine months as governor and two terms as a congressman. He is younger than Sarah Palin and his third child is only two years old
• Tim Pawlenty - One term as governor and several terms in the Minnesota state house. He is only a bit older than Sarah Palin

A lot of people are also focusing on the fact she has kids and one of them very young. Oddly enough no one has raised the issue that Barak Obama has young childern at home, if he can do it and run for President, then I can not see why anyone would comment about Sarah Palin.

The other angle is that Alaska is somehow not a real state because it has less people living in it when compared to most states. Last time I checked, each state has the same powers and legislates over the same things. The number of people in the state makes very little difference in governance. The same is true of a mayor, a town of 8000 has to deal with most of the same legsilative issues that a town of 500 000 has to.

Will McMartin hits the issue square on in this article in the Tyee, the US is still not beyond considering women and non-whites equal in elections. In Canada no one asks about kids or makes an issue of sexual orientation or skin colour, in the US it still matters and it is odd how much it is still an issue for the left.

Sept 5 2008 Election Seat Prediction

With some recent polls coming in showing there is about an 8 point gap between the Conservatives and Liberals and with the continued low numbers of the BQ in Quebec, time for a new seat update

• --------------CPC--- LP--- NDP--- BQ ----IND
• National --148 ----98 -----23 ------38 -----1
• Atlantic -------8 ----22 ------2
• Quebec ----20 ----15 -------1 ------38 -----1
• Ontario -----48 ----50 -------8
• Man/Sask -20 ------3 -------5
• Alberta -----27 ------1 -------0
  
• BC ----------25 ------5 -------6
• North ---------0 ------2 -------1

Comments on this projection:

1. A Conservative shut out in Newfoundland is possible
2. Bill Casey is not likely to win at this time, though my projection could change
3. At the moment the Bloc gains from the federalist split, but if things change like in 1984, there could be a large number of seats going to the Conservatives in Quebec. Though I believe the NDP will hold their one seat in Quebec this time.
   
4. The NDP is going to be squeezed in Ontario
5. The NDP will gain in Sask and Man this time at the expense of the Liberals
6. Yes, I do believe the Liberals will be able to take one of the Edmonton ridings
7. The north could change to a much stronger Conservative vote, but much depends on the candidates, Harper has made the north more of a priority than any other PM in a generation or more.

While we do not know where the election is headed, there is a moderately reasonable chance of a Conservative majority government.

Comments on the Polls

Superficially the numbers of the Conservatives and Liberals look the same as the result in 2006, but there are some important differences.

1) The support for the Greens is running at about twice what it was in 2006 - that is about 650 000 more votes the other parties can not get. Everything will depend on where these votes are coming from.

2) The support for the Bloc has fallen dramatically in Quebec - they are consistently polling at about 1/3 of the voters in Quebec, down significantly from 42% in 2006 and 49% in 2004. This result means that about another 25 or seats into play in Quebec for the federal parties. The drop of the Bloc is masking a drop of the Liberals and Conservatives in the rest of the country. If there is a move to the Conservatives in Quebec, Harper gains up to 15 more seats in le Belle Province. So why is Dion disliked there?

3) Liberal support seems to be concentrating in Newfoundland and in the upper class urban areas. They are not gaining where they need supporters. Getting more votes in ridings you already hold is not going to beneficial.

4) The NDP are polling higher then before, but this masks the fact that the NDP is spreading their support thinner across the country. When Ed Broadbent was leader of the party the NDP could count on more than 30% of the vote in BC, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Now the support for the NDP is spread out more evenly across the country. If the polls are accurate that the NDP is at around 17% nationally and 15% in Quebec, this means the party is down 2% in the rest of Canada from the 2006 election results. The NDP is in danger of losing seats in the election.