Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Prediction of the May 12th 2009 Election

Playing around with some numbers at the UBC ESM website to see how the election might turn out. In this scenario I assumed voters returning to the Liberals from non-voting, one in 20 NDP voters in the 2005 choosing not to vote, and finally a small portion of NDP vote going to the Greens.

Keep in mind that this is global view and not micro adjusted - specifically I have not adjusted Delta South for a possible independent win.

Here is how that looks:

Prediction of 2009 election
(by constituency)

Safe seats are indicated in blue
Marginal seats are indicated in red.
Constituency Political Parties
LIBNDPGRPOTR
1. Abbotsford-Mission 56.3%31.8%10.1% 2.3%
2. Abbotsford South 61.9%27.6% 8.5% 3.2%
3. Abbotsford West 61.5%28.7% 7.4% 3.8%
4. Alberni-Pacific Rim 34.0%52.1% 8.7% 3.8%
5. Boundary-Similkameen 47.9%37.3%10.5% 4.0%
6. Burnaby-Deer Lake 49.9%37.2% 8.9% 5.0%
7. Burnaby-Edmonds 43.8%44.0%10.9% 1.7%
8. Burnaby-Lougheed 49.8%40.4% 9.0% 1.0%
9. Burnaby North 47.9%41.6% 8.9% 1.7%
10. Cariboo-Chilcotin 46.5%43.3% 6.5% 3.2%
11. Cariboo North 48.2%43.1% 6.4% 1.8%
12. Chilliwack 58.0%30.7% 9.2% 3.2%
13. Chilliwack-Hope 55.0%34.2% 9.4% 2.0%
14. Columbia River-Revelstoke 42.5%47.4% 9.7% 0.0%
15. Comox Valley 47.8%39.4%10.3% 2.0%
16. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain 57.4%34.2% 7.0% 2.1%
17. Coquitlam-Maillardville 47.1%43.0% 7.7% 2.1%
18. Cowichan Valley 44.4%43.3% 8.6% 2.8%
19. Delta North 45.4%43.4% 8.9% 1.9%
20. Delta South 39.3%21.9% 5.3%33.9%
21. Equimalt-Royal Roads 39.5%46.9%11.5% 1.6%
22. Fort Langley-Aldergrove 61.5%26.6%10.4% 2.1%
23. Fraser-Nicola 44.5%43.2% 9.4% 2.1%
24. Juan de Fuca 38.3%43.6%11.8% 5.4%
25. Kamloops-North Thompson 45.7%41.5% 8.2% 4.4%
26. Kamloops-South Thompson 54.7%33.6% 8.1% 3.7%
27. Kelowna-Lake Country 55.1%27.5%10.3% 8.7%
28. Kelowna-Mission 57.9%28.6%13.3% 1.5%
29. Kootenay East 50.8%40.1% 9.4%
30. Kootenay West 28.5%57.1% 9.2% 3.5%
31. Langley 54.9%30.8%13.2% 1.9%
32. Maple Ridge-Mission 46.7%40.8% 9.9% 2.5%
33. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows 46.1%41.5% 8.6% 3.5%
34. Nanaimo 45.0%41.5%11.0% 2.2%
35. Nanaimo-North Cowichan 39.0%46.5%11.1% 2.3%
36. Nechako Lakes 52.5%33.2% 8.9% 5.5%
37. Nelson-Creston 29.1%53.9%13.8% 2.0%
38. New Westminster 40.0%47.0%10.7% 1.9%
39. North Coast 42.6%47.8% 7.5% 1.9%
40. North Island 45.0%41.3% 8.5% 4.6%
41. North Vancouver-Lonsdale 47.9%35.8%13.3% 3.1%
42. North Vancouver-Seymour 58.8%26.9%12.5% 1.5%
43. Oak Bay-Gordon Head 48.2%39.6% 9.6% 1.6%
44. Parksville-Qualicum 54.0%35.2% 9.1% 1.5%
45. Peace River North 64.6%24.6% 7.7% 5.8%
46. Peace River South 59.8%31.1%10.5%
47. Penticton 52.2%34.0%11.3% 2.8%
48. Port Coquitlam 45.9%44.3% 8.1% 1.3%
49. Port Moody-Coquitlam 51.3%38.4% 7.9% 2.4%
50. Powell River-Sunshine Coast 32.0%39.8%26.8% 0.6%
51. Prince George-Mackenzie 51.9%33.5% 8.5% 6.6%
52. Prince George-Valemount 48.7%32.3% 8.7%11.2%
53. Richmond Centre 62.9%29.7% 8.5% 1.2%
54. Richmond East 61.0%30.4% 8.4% 2.0%
55. Richmond-Steveston 62.2%28.5% 9.0% 1.2%
56. Saanich North and the Islands 45.4%34.3%16.3% 3.4%
57. Saanich South 47.3%41.4% 8.3% 2.1%
58. Shuswap 49.0%32.3% 6.8%12.1%
59. Skeena 46.8%45.3% 5.9% 1.8%
60. Stikine 48.4%39.8% 6.6% 4.4%
61. Surrey-Cloverdale 62.7%27.5% 9.1% 1.2%
62. Surrey-Fleetwood 47.4%43.6% 5.7% 3.3%
63. Surrey-Green Timbers 32.8%58.2% 5.6% 2.7%
64. Surrey-Newton 36.4%54.7% 6.8% 1.8%
65. Surrey-Panorama 53.1%36.8% 8.8% 1.2%
66. Surrey-Tynehead 52.0%38.0% 6.5% 4.2%
67. Surrey-Whalley 34.1%51.7% 8.4% 6.0%
68. Surrey-White Rock 60.0%24.1%11.2% 5.1%
69. Vancouver-Fairview 46.0%42.8%10.2% 1.2%
70. Vancouver-False Creek 52.4%34.3%12.3% 2.3%
71. Vancouver-Fraserview 50.9%39.1% 7.6% 3.0%
72. Vancouver-Hastings 35.7%50.1%10.3% 4.2%
73. Vancouver-Kensington 46.1%45.1% 7.2% 1.8%
74. Vancouver-Kingsway 44.1%47.1% 7.5% 1.9%
75. Vancouver-Langara 60.3%30.2% 8.9% 2.4%
76. Vancouver-Mount Pleasant 24.9%59.5%11.9% 4.3%
77. Vancouver-Point Grey 49.1%34.4%15.8% 1.2%
78. Vancouver-Quilchena 69.8%19.2%10.9% 1.4%
79. Vancouver-West End 41.1%42.3%14.9% 2.6%
80. Vernon-Monashee 46.2%30.6% 7.9%16.1%
81. Victoria-Beacon Hill 32.6%52.4%12.7% 1.5%
82. Victoria-Swan Lake 32.8%51.3%12.9% 2.2%
83. West Vancouver-Capilano 69.4%16.4%13.8% 1.6%
84. West Vancouver-Sea to Sky 50.9%20.7%27.7% 2.0%
85. Westside-Kelowna 55.7%28.0%12.5% 5.4%


Provincewide result is
Liberals - 48.4% and 65 seats
NDP - 37.9% and 20 seats
Greens - 10.2% and 0 seats
Post a Comment