Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Is there an sanity in the US Republican Party?

So the Iowa caucuses happened last night and no one managed to do well.

  • Mitt Romney - 24.55% 30,015 votes, likely 13 delegates
  • Rick Santorum - 24.54% 30,007 votes, likely 12 delegates
  • Ron Paul - 21.45% 26,219 votes
  • Newt Gingrich - 13.29% 16,251 votes
  • Rick Perry - 10.31% 12,604 votes
  • Michelle Bachmann - 4.98% 6,073 votes 
  • Jon Huntsman - 0.61% 745 votes
  • The Rest - 0.28% 341 votes

Iowa has a long process between the caucus vote and the actual designation of the delegates.  In theory Ron Paul could get some delegates, but seeing that the support for Romney and Santorum split the state so nicely, they could have all the delegates.

Michelle Bachmann has dropped out of the race, something she have done ages ago because she has no business being in the race.  I assume that her support will flow to Rick Santorum.

Sounds like Rick Perry may also be gone, this is also a good thing as he also had no business in the race.

With the declared support of super delegates, the totals are:

  • Romney - 26
  • Santorum - 13
  • Perry - 3

1144 delegates needed to win.

Can anyone beat Mitt Romney?  I can not see Ron Paul winning the nomination.  Jon Huntsman, no matter how much better he is than the rest of the field, is not a threat to anything.   That leaves Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich as the only competitors to Mitt Romney.

Should through some bizarre total hijacking of the GOP Rick Santorum win the nomination, he will guarantee a Barak Obama win.  

If Newt Gingrich were to win, which I think is a very long shot, we will see the nastiest presidential election in many years.    I can not see how Newt can win against Barak Obama.

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