Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Boundary Similkameen - the only three way race since 1996, is it the future?

In this election Boundary Similkameen was the closest thing to a three way race in this election. Even then the Conservative was a distant third.

  • John Slater Liberal - 6439 - 37.58%
  • Lakhvinder Jhaj MDP - 5626 - 32.84%
  • Joe Cardoso Conservative - 3456 - 20.17%
  • Bob Grieve Green - 1612 - 9.41%

In 1991 and 1996 there were numerous three way races for ridings.

There were also numerous ones in 1972. There is a pattern here, tight three way races help the NDP win seats.

NDP popular vote 1969 to 2009 with majorities in bold

  • 1969 - 33.92%
  • 1972 - 39.59%
  • 1975 - 39.16%
  • 1979 - 45.99%
  • 1983 - 44.94%
  • 1986 - 42.60%
  • 1991 - 40.71%
  • 1996 - 39.45%
  • 2001 - 21.56%
  • 2005 - 41.52%
  • 2009 - 42.03%

Carole James managed to do better in percentage of the vote than the NDP did in 1972, 1991 and 1996 when they won government.

If there is a very serious Conservative party in 2013 that can take 15% to 20% of the vote province wide, the NDP is likely to win a majority government.
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