Boundary Similkameen - the only three way race since 1996, is it the future?

In this election Boundary Similkameen was the closest thing to a three way race in this election. Even then the Conservative was a distant third.

• John Slater Liberal - 6439 - 37.58%
• Lakhvinder Jhaj MDP - 5626 - 32.84%
• Joe Cardoso Conservative - 3456 - 20.17%
• Bob Grieve Green - 1612 - 9.41%

In 1991 and 1996 there were numerous three way races for ridings.

There were also numerous ones in 1972. There is a pattern here, tight three way races help the NDP win seats.

NDP popular vote 1969 to 2009 with majorities in bold

• 1969 - 33.92%
• 1972 - 39.59%
• 1975 - 39.16%
• 1979 - 45.99%
• 1983 - 44.94%
• 1986 - 42.60%
• 1991 - 40.71%
• 1996 - 39.45%
• 2001 - 21.56%
• 2005 - 41.52%
• 2009 - 42.03%

Carole James managed to do better in percentage of the vote than the NDP did in 1972, 1991 and 1996 when they won government.

If there is a very serious Conservative party in 2013 that can take 15% to 20% of the vote province wide, the NDP is likely to win a majority government.