Biggest change from the poll on March 24th is the dramatic drop in Green support and the shift of that support to the NDP.
- Liberals - 47%(+1)
- NDP - 39%(+4)
- Greens - 10%(-4)
- Others - 4(-1)
- Liberals - 46%
- NDP - 37%
- Greens - 11%
- Others - 6%
The Innovative Research Group poll is an online survey of 753 panelists conducted from March 20 to April 15, with a second major survey of 610 panelists conducted from May 6 to May 9. A random sample of 600 with a 100 per cent response rate would have a margin of error of four percentage points, 19 times out of 20.Factoring in both polls brings me to:
- Liberals - 46.4%(+1.2)
- NDP - 38.8%(-0.6)
- Green - 10.8(-0.9)
- Others - 4.3(+0.4)
I am feeling reasonably confident that these numbers will be an accurate reflection of the public will at the ballot box. As to the seats that the parties would win, I stand behind my prediction of the other day - 57 Liberal and 28 NDP
2 comments:
One interesting finding from the Ipsos poll. It asked a question on "likely voters" and 66% stated that they were "absolutely certain" to vote.
Turnout in my guestimation will probably also be in the 63% - 65% range based upon historic figures.
And the 8% lead for the Libs increases to 11% with these "absolutely certain" voters:
Liberal - 49%
NDP - 38%
Green - 11%
I think you are somewhat optimistic. Liberals will probably win, but it will be a very narrow victory affecting their mandate.
There is also a chance that NDP could come on top due to the systemic bias favoring the NDP.
The spread may be is little as 3% and the seat spread as little as 5 or 3 seats.
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