Monday, October 19, 2009

Latest Federal Ekos poll

Ekos released their weekly federal poll last week. The results mirror the national trends that all the polls are showing - the Conservatives are up and the Liberals are down. What I did find was one interesting result.

In BC, admittedly a small sample to start with, the Green Party once again showed a much stronger level of support for the party outside of the Vancouver than in Vancouver. Outside of Vancouver the Greens tied the Liberals for second place with 21% of the vote (+- 6.7% at 95% confidence level). The NDP is behind them at 19% of the vote.

These results mean that the Greens could in theory win seats like Victoria and BC Southern Interior. 30-35% is a possible for a Green, and in Victoria that could be enough to win the seat as the votes will be split four ways. This is the riding Elizabeth May should have been running in if she wanted to win. Saanich and the Islands is not one where she will be able to get the numbers needed to defeat Gary Lunn.

Okanagan Shuswap is also not impossible if it becomes a serious race for all four parties. Provincially the Greens showed a higher level of strength in this area than in many others.
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