It is interesting that Magna Corp of Canada could be the new owner of Opel.
This means for the first time in generations, there will be a significant part Canadian owned car manufacturer. Magna would have a 20% stake it seems in Opel - GM Europe. I am not certain what all is the deal, which parts are now going to part owned by Magna and which may not be part of it, but Magna now has a major stake in a company that manufactures about 2 000 000 cars per year.
If at some point Opel comes under full control of Magna, this would make Magna about the 13th largest car manufacturer in the world.
Why would Magna do this? I expect because they know a lot about the costs of what goes into cars and see future for a new Opel as a global player. I can see expansion of Opel globally.
Many of the Opel models are not available in North America. Opel has a strong stable of small cars. The Opels that are sold in North America are sold by Saturn, specifically the Ion and the Vue. With the imminent closure of Saturn, it would seem there is a perfect opening for Opel to come to North America.
Canada is slipping in its importance globally as car manufacturer. In recent years we have been passed by China, Spain and Brazil. India will soon pass us as will Russia. We were once number six, but we are now ninth. With the loss of Chrysler, Canada will drop to below 2 000 000 vehicles per year for the first time in decades.
A smart Magna will buy up the empty Chrysler plants in Canada.....
Friday, May 29, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Just some more looking at elections in BC
What I will be posting here is something many people 'know' but no one has really spent a lot of time looking at the numbers and long term trends. The NDP can not win a two party race to be government in BC, they need there to be at least one strong third party to allow them to win the election.
In BC the NDP has managed to get above 40% of the vote in six elections since 1933. The five elections in which the NDP got its highest percentage of the vote it lost the elections.
In fact in the five elections the NDP managed to get the most votes in BC, 1979, 1983, 1986, 2005 and 2009 are all ones that they lost. The one thing these elections have in common is that the top two parties took over 87% of the vote. The elections were two party races. The evidence seems to say that the NDP can not win in BC in a two party race.
In the 26 elections since I was born in BC, provincial and federal, the NDP managed to win six elections, that is they were the party to win the most seats in BC in the election. The NDP won provincial elections in 1972, 1991 and 1996. They also won the majority of the seats in BC in the 1988 federal election and were the largest party federally in BC in 1972 and 1965. In these elections the NDP managed to get between 33% and 40% of the vote.
What these six election have in common is that there were at least three strong parties in the election and in several of them four.
What it comes down to in BC is that as long as there is only two parties realistically able to win seats, the NDP can not win the elections.
If in 2013 there are only two parties in the election, the NDP will lose again. It is as simple as that.
In BC the NDP has managed to get above 40% of the vote in six elections since 1933. The five elections in which the NDP got its highest percentage of the vote it lost the elections.
In fact in the five elections the NDP managed to get the most votes in BC, 1979, 1983, 1986, 2005 and 2009 are all ones that they lost. The one thing these elections have in common is that the top two parties took over 87% of the vote. The elections were two party races. The evidence seems to say that the NDP can not win in BC in a two party race.
In the 26 elections since I was born in BC, provincial and federal, the NDP managed to win six elections, that is they were the party to win the most seats in BC in the election. The NDP won provincial elections in 1972, 1991 and 1996. They also won the majority of the seats in BC in the 1988 federal election and were the largest party federally in BC in 1972 and 1965. In these elections the NDP managed to get between 33% and 40% of the vote.
What these six election have in common is that there were at least three strong parties in the election and in several of them four.
What it comes down to in BC is that as long as there is only two parties realistically able to win seats, the NDP can not win the elections.
If in 2013 there are only two parties in the election, the NDP will lose again. It is as simple as that.
Some implications of the election of Vicki Huntington
- This will be the first time since the end of the BC Reform party tenure in the Legislature that we will have had a right wing MLA.
- It will be the first time since the Liberals have been in power that they will have opposition from the right side of the spectrum.
- The NDP will no longer be the only opposition to the government.
The right in BC used to control BC politics for many, many years, but with the demise of Social Credit and then BC Reform, there has been no right wing representation in the BC Legislature. BC is province with a very strong right wing politically, but it has not been part of the mix in Victoria for ten years.
In this last election there were some very strong expressions of a desire to have a right wing in BC politics. The Conservatives managed to get 11% of the vote in the Okanagan, a right wing independent in the Peace got a third of the vote, and Vicki Huntington was elected. I am also certain that several hundred thousand right wing voters chose not to vote because they saw no real options for them on the ballot.
Meanwhile, all the opposition to the government has been from the left, there has been no active or strong voice from the right pushing against the government program. With Vicki Huntington in Victoria, there will be a voice from the right pushing against the Liberal program. The government will now be pulled in two directions. The last time BC had a government with representation to the left and to the right of it was in the 1930s and Duff Patullo was premier.
Meanwhile the NDP has a potential serious problem. For the last eight years they have been the only opposition. However badly they did, they still remained the only game in town. What happens if Vicki Huntington is better as an opposition member than most of the New Democrats? What if she is seen as being equal to the NDP in giving the government grief? The NDP can not coast through another term like they did for the last four years. They need to dramatically step up their game immediately or they will be over shadowed by the one member opposition from the right wing.
I suspect the Carole James is going to quickly be compared to Vicki Huntington and people are going to be less impressed with Carole than they have been. Vicki Huntington comes to Victoria with real and significant federal political experience from the backrooms. She knows how politics is played, she knows what it takes to make the news and how to find the stories that will take the government to task.
BC politics will be much better for the election of Vicki Huntington. She may be the catalyst for a dramatic political shift in the election in 2013, the sort that was seen in 1991 or 1952. Both the Liberals and the NDP have to step up their game now or they will be in serious trouble when that election comes around.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Looking at the final results
In no order here, just a few interesting results:
Pat Pimm, new Liberal MLA for Peace River North has the distinction of being the person elected by the fewest votes - 3992 in total. Province wide 164 candidates managed to get more votes than he did, 80 of whom did not get elected. Three members of the Greens managed to get more votes than he did.
Colin Hansen top the polls province wide with 15731 votes, this is more votes than the bottom four MLAs achieved - Pimm (Lib) 3992, Donaldson (NDP) 4274, Lekstrom (Lib) 4801, Rustad (Lib) 4949.
52 candidates managed to get more than 10 000 votes, five of them did not manage to get elected - Holman (NDP) 12875, McNabb (NDP) 12508, Van der Veen (NDP) 11316, Adair (Lib) 11215, Salter (NDP) 10136. All of five of them are from Vancouver Island.
Of our 85 MLAs that were elected, 60 of them managed to convince a majority of the people in their riding to vote for them, 25 of our MLAs had more people vote for someone other than the person elected. In 2005 43 of the 79 MLAs were elected by a majority. 14 MLAs managed to get more than 60% of the vote, in 2005 that was only six.
New Liberal Eric Foster has the distintion of being elected with the lowest percentage of the vote, 37.27%. 33 candidates managed a higher percentage of the vote than he did and were not elected.
New Democrat Charlie Wyse had the highest percentage of the vote and lost. He managed 47.18% of the vote and still lost. 14 people elected as MLAs did worse than this.
Even though we saw the election of Vicki Huntingdon, this was not a good election for candidates not with the NDP or the Liberals. Only eight candidates not with one of the two major parties broke through the important 15% barrier - two independents, one Conservative and five Greens. But this is in fact an improvement over 2005 when only six candidates managed to do the same and one of them was a sitting MLA (Paul Nettleton) that ran as an independent.
Three New Democrats did not manage to break 15%, they had no one go below that mark in 2005.
The Conserative Party clear has some strength in the Okanagan. They managed to take 11.13% of the vote in the Okanagan's seven ridings, enough to edge out the Greens for third place in the valley. The Greens managed 11.07%. In total 23.98% of the vote in the Okanagan did not go to one of the major parties, that is double the provincial average.
Topping the polls in percentage of the vote was Sue Hammell of the NDP with 72.73% of the vote.
The seven Conservatives took close to half the votes of the Conservative party in the election. I would be very surprised if the seven Okanagan ridings had some strong three and four way races in 2013. When that happens, odd results can happen and people win with as little as one third of the vote.
The Greens were down in support in this election, but when you look closer at the results, they do not look as bad I thought at first glance, though still not great. If one takes out the Adrianne Carr vote in Powell River Sunshine Coast, the fall in vote is marginal, but more important is that party seems to building some actual regional strengths, something fundamentally important if you are going to win in First Past the Post. The Greens seem to have an emerging core on the south island, the Okanagan, and the North Shore. None are easy places to win, but building regional strength is the first step towards winning.
Pat Pimm, new Liberal MLA for Peace River North has the distinction of being the person elected by the fewest votes - 3992 in total. Province wide 164 candidates managed to get more votes than he did, 80 of whom did not get elected. Three members of the Greens managed to get more votes than he did.
Colin Hansen top the polls province wide with 15731 votes, this is more votes than the bottom four MLAs achieved - Pimm (Lib) 3992, Donaldson (NDP) 4274, Lekstrom (Lib) 4801, Rustad (Lib) 4949.
52 candidates managed to get more than 10 000 votes, five of them did not manage to get elected - Holman (NDP) 12875, McNabb (NDP) 12508, Van der Veen (NDP) 11316, Adair (Lib) 11215, Salter (NDP) 10136. All of five of them are from Vancouver Island.
Of our 85 MLAs that were elected, 60 of them managed to convince a majority of the people in their riding to vote for them, 25 of our MLAs had more people vote for someone other than the person elected. In 2005 43 of the 79 MLAs were elected by a majority. 14 MLAs managed to get more than 60% of the vote, in 2005 that was only six.
New Liberal Eric Foster has the distintion of being elected with the lowest percentage of the vote, 37.27%. 33 candidates managed a higher percentage of the vote than he did and were not elected.
New Democrat Charlie Wyse had the highest percentage of the vote and lost. He managed 47.18% of the vote and still lost. 14 people elected as MLAs did worse than this.
Even though we saw the election of Vicki Huntingdon, this was not a good election for candidates not with the NDP or the Liberals. Only eight candidates not with one of the two major parties broke through the important 15% barrier - two independents, one Conservative and five Greens. But this is in fact an improvement over 2005 when only six candidates managed to do the same and one of them was a sitting MLA (Paul Nettleton) that ran as an independent.
Three New Democrats did not manage to break 15%, they had no one go below that mark in 2005.
The Conserative Party clear has some strength in the Okanagan. They managed to take 11.13% of the vote in the Okanagan's seven ridings, enough to edge out the Greens for third place in the valley. The Greens managed 11.07%. In total 23.98% of the vote in the Okanagan did not go to one of the major parties, that is double the provincial average.
Topping the polls in percentage of the vote was Sue Hammell of the NDP with 72.73% of the vote.
The seven Conservatives took close to half the votes of the Conservative party in the election. I would be very surprised if the seven Okanagan ridings had some strong three and four way races in 2013. When that happens, odd results can happen and people win with as little as one third of the vote.
The Greens were down in support in this election, but when you look closer at the results, they do not look as bad I thought at first glance, though still not great. If one takes out the Adrianne Carr vote in Powell River Sunshine Coast, the fall in vote is marginal, but more important is that party seems to building some actual regional strengths, something fundamentally important if you are going to win in First Past the Post. The Greens seem to have an emerging core on the south island, the Okanagan, and the North Shore. None are easy places to win, but building regional strength is the first step towards winning.
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Final BC Election Results
The final count is coming in at Elections BC, and it has changed two results from election night.
Vicki Huntingdon defeated Wally Oppal in Delta South by 32 votes, 9977 to 9945. Vicki Huntingdon is the first person elected to the BC Legislature since 1996 that is not a Liberal or New Democrat.
In Cariboo Chilcotin Liberal Donna Barnett defeated New Democrat Charlie Wyse 6259 to 6171.
This means the legislature will be:
The changes from the final count also changes the number of women in the legistlature, I took a look at this right after the election and I honestly did not think there would be changes. We move from 22 women to 24 women. This works out to 28.2% of the MLAs.
The two new MLAs also displace two incumbents. The election will see 25 new MLAs going to Victoria, not 23 as I had orginally thought. The Liberals have 31 returning MLAs and 28 New Democrats.
The percentage of vote for the parties in the final count has so far shown a small shift away from the Liberals to the NDP and Greens. Interesting is how well the Greens have done in the final count.
Vicki Huntingdon defeated Wally Oppal in Delta South by 32 votes, 9977 to 9945. Vicki Huntingdon is the first person elected to the BC Legislature since 1996 that is not a Liberal or New Democrat.
In Cariboo Chilcotin Liberal Donna Barnett defeated New Democrat Charlie Wyse 6259 to 6171.
This means the legislature will be:
- Liberals 49 (+3)
- NDP 35 (+2)
- Ind 1 (+1)
The changes from the final count also changes the number of women in the legistlature, I took a look at this right after the election and I honestly did not think there would be changes. We move from 22 women to 24 women. This works out to 28.2% of the MLAs.
The two new MLAs also displace two incumbents. The election will see 25 new MLAs going to Victoria, not 23 as I had orginally thought. The Liberals have 31 returning MLAs and 28 New Democrats.
The percentage of vote for the parties in the final count has so far shown a small shift away from the Liberals to the NDP and Greens. Interesting is how well the Greens have done in the final count.
Standings in the Senate
There are three more vacancies in the Senate as Senators reached mandatory retirement. The Liberals are now down to 55 Senators, 56 if you count the Liberal outside of the caucus. By the end of August the Liberal caucus will no longer be a majority of the Senate. By October 6th they will not have a majority even with the Liberal outside of the caucus.
If the PM appoints Conservatives to the Senate, the standings after October 6th will be:
If the PM appoints Conservatives to the Senate, the standings after October 6th will be:
- Liberals - 51
- CPC - 47
- Independent - 4
- PC - 2
- Liberal outside of caucus - 1
The state of the federal parliament
In the last few weeks there have been three resignations from the federal parliament.
You need 153 votes for a majority at the moment. The Conservatives are slightly closer to having the votes to pass bills without anyone else. If ten members of the opposition are out of Ottawa, the Conservatives have a bare majority.
Eventually there will be by-elections for these three sets.
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup
Realistically this seat will be won again by the Bloc. The Conservatives came second in the last two elections with this being one of the few places in Quebec where they showed a significant improvement in 2008 from 2006. But given current polling, I see the Liberals coming second.
Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley
With Bill Casey's resignation this seat will most likely return to the Conservatives. There is an outside chance of the Liberals winning. Elizabeth May might run here but is unlikely to win.
New Westminster - Coquitlam
This riding will most likely won by the Conservatives. I expect the Liberals to have a strong resurgence but not to be able to win. I see the NDP and Liberals fighting for second place.
After these by-elections the house of commons will be as follows:
155 votes needed for a majority with the Conservatives ten seats short. In the 39th parliament the Conservatives went from being 31 seats short of a majority to 26 seats short.
I doubt that the Conservatives will be able to entice any more people to cross the floor.
I do expect to see between five and ten Liberals to retire in the next year to 18 months. There is a reasonable statistical chance of some deaths, most likely a Liberal and a BQ MP.
I do not see the Liberals pushing for another election, the party needs to do a lot more building to be ready and the polling numbers are not good enough to indicate a strong possibility of winning an election. I do not see the issue out there that will fire up the public and that would lead to a boring and status quo election. That sort of election works well for incumbents being re-elected.
- Dawn Black of the NDP, now a provincial MLA
- Bill Casey Independent
- Paul Crete - Bloc Quebecois - he is running in the provincial election
- CPC 143
- Liberals 77
- Bloc - 48
- NDP - 36
- Ind - 1
You need 153 votes for a majority at the moment. The Conservatives are slightly closer to having the votes to pass bills without anyone else. If ten members of the opposition are out of Ottawa, the Conservatives have a bare majority.
Eventually there will be by-elections for these three sets.
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup
Realistically this seat will be won again by the Bloc. The Conservatives came second in the last two elections with this being one of the few places in Quebec where they showed a significant improvement in 2008 from 2006. But given current polling, I see the Liberals coming second.
Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley
With Bill Casey's resignation this seat will most likely return to the Conservatives. There is an outside chance of the Liberals winning. Elizabeth May might run here but is unlikely to win.
New Westminster - Coquitlam
This riding will most likely won by the Conservatives. I expect the Liberals to have a strong resurgence but not to be able to win. I see the NDP and Liberals fighting for second place.
After these by-elections the house of commons will be as follows:
- CPC - 145
- Liberals - 77
- Bloc - 49
- NDP - 36
- Ind -1
155 votes needed for a majority with the Conservatives ten seats short. In the 39th parliament the Conservatives went from being 31 seats short of a majority to 26 seats short.
I doubt that the Conservatives will be able to entice any more people to cross the floor.
I do expect to see between five and ten Liberals to retire in the next year to 18 months. There is a reasonable statistical chance of some deaths, most likely a Liberal and a BQ MP.
I do not see the Liberals pushing for another election, the party needs to do a lot more building to be ready and the polling numbers are not good enough to indicate a strong possibility of winning an election. I do not see the issue out there that will fire up the public and that would lead to a boring and status quo election. That sort of election works well for incumbents being re-elected.
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