The 65 seats I am 90% certain will be lost by Labour to the Liberal Democrats

Working with the model I am using which assumes the the biggest swing in the election is by 2005 Labour supporters choosing not to vote in 2010 and many of the new voters this time voting Liberal Democrats.  It also assumes that the 2005 Labour supporters that are voting but not Labour are equally splitting between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.

There were about 15 seats that in the big picture of the model were won by the Liberal Democrats, but given the 2005 results and how close the Conservatives were, I assigned those seats to the Conservatives.

All the seats are in England, I am not confident of the data from Wales or Scotland to make predictions for those seats.

Here are the 65 seats I am 90% certain will fall to the Cleggista Revolution:

1. Briminghan Hodge Hill
2. Brimingham Ladywood – the low turn out is a big factor here
3. Brimingham Perry Barr
4. Bishop Auckland
5. Blackburn
6. Blaydon 
7. Blyth Valley
8. Bradford East 
9. Brent Central
10. Bristol East
11. Bristol North West 
12. Bristol South
13. Burnley 
14. Colne Valley 
15. Cotswolds
16. Coventry North West
17. Derby North 
18. Derby South
19. Derbyshire North East
20. Doncaster Central
21. Dulwich and West Norwood
22. City of Durham 
23. Exeter
24. Feltham and Heston– the low turn out is a big factor here
25. Great Grimsby – the low turn out is a big factor here
26. Hackney North and Stoke Newington – the low turn out is a big factor here
27. Hartlepool 
28. Holborn and St Pancras – the low turn out is a big factor here
29. Huddersfield
30. Hull North 
31. Hull West and Hessle 
32. Ilford South
33. Ipswich
34. Islington North
35. Islington South and Finsbury 
36. Lancaster and Fleetwood
37. Leicester South 
38. Lewisham West and Penge
39. Leyton and Wanstead
40. Liverpool Riverside – the low turn out is a big factor here
41. Liverpoll Wavertree 
42. Luton South
43. Manchester Gordon – the low turn out is a big factor here
44. Newcastle upon Tyne Central
45. Newcastle upon Tyne East 
46. Newcastle upon Tyne North 
47. Northhampton North 
48. Norwich South 
49. Nottingham East
50. Nottingham South
51. Oldham East and Saddleworth 
52. Oxford East 
53. Plymouth Moor View
54. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
55. Preston
56. Sheffield Central 
57. Southampton Itchen
58. Southampton Test
59. St Helens South and Whiston
60. Streatham
61. Vauxhall – the low turn out is a big factor here
62. Wakefield
63. Walthamstow
64. Wansbeck
65. Watford 

Potential Conservative held seats that the Liberal Democrats could win.

1. Bournemouth West 
2. Broadland 
3. Dorset North 
4. Dorset West
5. Eastbourne

I am not certain what will happen in any of these five as I can not be certain of what voters will do in seats where Labour is not a factor.   Let us call it 2 LibDem and 3 Conservative.

On the above alone, Nick Clegg would be over 130 seats in Westminster and this is the absolute minimum seats for them.   

I am off camping this weekend and may not get another post in - I have to finish laying a floor before I can go.  If I do, or on Monday, I will detail 76 more Labour seats that are under threat to be lost to the Liberal Democrats.   My estimate is that Labour will lose at least 50 of those seats to one of the other parties.