Wednesday, May 5, 2010

UK Election, Final Prediction - likely Conservative Majority

The Conservatives are clearly in the lead now and some more detailed polling shows they could gain more Labour seats than I had been finding in my work.  I am not reasonably certain that Cameron will manage to get a majority.

I am still not convinced that anyone is making accommodation for issues related to turn out in the election.  I still am convinced that you will see a higher degree of fall in Labour support in Labour held 'safe' seats than people expect.  I also still see the LibDems picking some of these up.


  • Conservatives  - 337 (300 - 353)
  • Labour - 151 (85 - 192)
  • Liberal Democrats 133 (110-160)
  • Scot Nat - 7 (6-9)
  • Plaid - 4
  • Ind/Speaker  -  3 (one in Northern Ireland)
  • Unionists - 9
  • SF - 5
  • SDLP - 3

In Northern Ireland I see SF taking five seats and therefore the effective number of MPs is 645 meaning 323 is enough for a majority.

I believe that the LibDems will have more votes than Labour, but I think there are better odds of Labour finishing with a few more seats than the LibDems.

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