Thursday, July 8, 2010

New Ekos Poll - not much change

Yeah, the headline is that the Liberals are at all time lows with Ignatieff, but unless there is a trend seeing the Conservatives rising to more than 37% and holding there, I am not at all impressed with the numbers.

Compared to the last election, the Bloc and NDP are roughly where they were in support and the Conservatives and Liberals are both down.   Only the Greens are up in the polls compared to the election 2008 and everyone assumes that a good third of their vote will evaporate on election.

The only part of the polls that continue to interest are the numbers in BC because the Green party has been showing long term significant strength.  When I extrapolate the results from outside of Vancouver, they are close to 20% support.  Outside of Vancouver the NDP are at 22% and the Liberals at 15%.   This trend has been going on for months now and seems to indicate that the Greens outside of Vancouver could realistically expect 20% of the vote and if there is any regional clustering, they could get more than 30% in some ridings, though this may still not be enough to win anything.

As I said, this higher level of Green support in BC is about the only significant change the Ekos polling is showing from the last election.

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