Tuesday, July 13, 2010

New Federal Polls

In the last week we have seen new federal polls from Angus Reid, Ipsos Reid, and EKOS.

Broadly the three polls give us the following:

  • Conservatives - 35%
  • Liberals - 26.5%
  • NDP - 17.5%
  • Bloc - 10%
  • Greens - 9%

This is at best a marginal change from the last federal election 2008.  The biggest losers are the Conservatives, down from 37.6% in the last election.   Greens are up from 6.8%.

So what does it mean?   In the absence of something dramatic in an election, these results would indicate a parliament almost the same as the current one.

My prediction changes a bit from May and comes back closer to the 2008 election result.

  • Conservatives - 36% - 138 seats (130-147)
  • Liberals - 27% - 81 seats (78 - 94)
  • NDP 17% - 35 seats (31 - 40)
  • Bloc 10% - 51 seats (47-53)
  • Greens 8% - 0 seats (0-1)
I can not see an election happening unless the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives in polling for at least two months or the Conservatives poll over 38% for the same sort of time period.   
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