Wednesday, December 1, 2010

This is a very serious revolt

Jenny Kwan has said her piece and now has been backed by Harry Lali, Gary Coons, and Nicholas Simons.   Based on the public reasons for the expulsion of Bob Simpson, all four them should be expelled as well.    Reports are out there that Norm Macdonald is also in the same camp.

This means we could see six NDP MLAs out of caucus, more than enough to form their own caucus.  I can see the speaker agreeing to them being recognized as their own caucus.   This is very much reminiscent of the Canadian Alliance revolt against Stockwell Day.

Four of these MLAs are rural MLAs.  Of the other two, Nicholas Simons is from Powell River Sunshine Coast and Jenny Kwan from Vancouver Hastings.   The NDP started with nine rural MLAs and look to be losing four of them.   It would also mean six of the 15 rural MLAs in BC would no longer be with the NDP or Liberals.   There an rural/urban split in politics occurring in this province.

I am not sure who is in charge of the anti-Carole James campaign, if there is an organized campaign or if it is just an ongoing dissatisfaction with the Carole James that will not go away.   Why Jenny Kwan chose this moment to do this is something I would like to understand.

Carole James has to expel them quickly or else she will look like she is treating them differently that Bob Simpson even though they have been much more extreme in their critique of the leader.   If they are expelled tonight, they will be all be available for media comment for the last two days of this week.

If she does not expel them, her case for expelling Bob Simpson looks like a really bad decision that she has to back down from and apologize to him for what happened.

Is there a way for the Carole James faction within the NDP to get ahead of this?   I am not sure.   The voices closest to the leader sound like they are circling the wagons and entrenching themselves in a way that it is going to make very hard for anyone to back down.

With this big a public revolt the NDP has to either accept the loss of a significant part of the party or it needs to have the leader resign.

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