Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Liberal Leadership Race

With four candidates in the race now and only one major potential candidate left to join the race, we can see fairly clearly how the campaign will shape up.

Moira Stillwell - there is no evidence that she has any sort of campaign in place.   If you know of a website for her campaign, please let me know.

Mike de Jong has entered the race today and has all the social media one expects from a candidate these days, what I do not see is much evidence of any strong support on the ground for him.   If you want to enthuse people about a campaign, you need to show some widespread support.   There are only two endorsements that I can see.  

His campaign is in the hands of Joel Maclaughlin - I do not know how well connected he is and how many memberships he can sell to get his guy over the top.

George Abbott has a good selection of MLAs backing him and this should give him a network for him to be able to get support from around the province.    Once again in his case I can not find his website - if you know where it is at, please let me know.

Kevin Falcon has the slickest website and he looks to have the best organization in place.   He is well placed to get the membership sales needed.   So far he has sounded the most organized and seems to be campaigning the hardest of all the candidates.

The last person is Christy Clark and she has not yet declared.   Until she is in the race it is very hard to judge how good her campaign would be.   I do not know who would be running it and I do not know how good her current networks are within the party.

At this point given the four candidates in the race and the potential one, I am reasonable certain that Kevin Falcon will win.   Short of some ground swell for George Abbott or Christy Clark showing up with a very strong team, I really do not see much potential of anyone else winning.

I am discounting the campaign of Barry Penner's cat Ranger for the position for several reasons, I do not think he can raise the $25,000 to enter the race, he is not a convincing speaker, and finally I can not find any evidence that he is a Canadian citizen.  
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