Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Christy Clark front runner?

I am not at all convinced of this.    There are several reasons for this:

1) She has very limited support among members before November 2010.  These members are strongly Abbott and then Falcon

2) Her signups were not miles ahead of Falcon and in fact she did not even bring in half of the new members.  She did not even double Mike de Jong in new members.

3) She has some large concentrations in a few ridings and as far as I can tell does not have any support in about half the ridings in BC.

What this leads me to is that she is will at best get 1/3 of the total riding points.   I have run the math over and over again and I can not get it to work where Christy Clark has any significant lead over Falcon, let alone get her to 40% of the points out there.

For her to be at 40%, she needs to at a much larger level of support among existing members and either de Jong or Falcon lied about sign ups.  I have no evidence that points to either.

A new factor in the race is that 6,000 people have been removed from the membership rolls, if they are evenly assigned to the campaigns, Clark loses the most voters.   Losing 10% of the new members will benefit George Abbott the most - I see this as a shift of about 350 points to Abbott from the other campaigns.  If I assign the loses as Clark 150, Falcon 125 and de Jong 75, we end up with the following estimate:

  1. Falcon - 2975
  2. Clark - 2600
  3. Abbott - 2100
  4. de Jong - 825

This shift makes it possible for Abbott to pass Clark on the second count if he gets a strong transfer from de Jong, but still improbable.  Only a in best scenario could Abbott pass Clark.
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