Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Current estimate of 1st ballot support for Liberal leadership candidates

This is my current estimate of first count support in points for each of the candidates:
  1. Kevin Falcon - 3100 (2950- 3250)
  2. Christy Clark - 2750 (2600 - 2900)
  3. George Abbott - 1750 (1550 - 1900)
  4. Mike de Jong - 900 (800-1000)
4251 is needed to win.

Factors that go into my analysis:
  • Existing membership in ridings of MLAs backing candidates and of former MLAs, I weight MLA and former MLA ability to bring their riding to their candidate based on how recently they were elected and how recently they were in a nomination battle.   A one term MLA from 2001-2005 is given a low weight versus an MLA that was elected in 2009 for the first time after a contested nomination.  
  • Existing members are assumed to be less likely to vote than the new sign ups
  • Existing members are also reduced by 10% because there are members the party does not have a current address for.
  • The reported number of members each campaign signed up - I am assuming 5000 lapsed members (like I was) and 5000 spontaneous sign ups as part of these numbers.   Lapsed members are most likely to be in competitive ridings and the spontaneous ones are equally distributed through out BC due to a lack of information on where they might be.  I am treating as voting like the old members.
  • I am assuming old members are more likely to be swayed than new members signed up by the campaigns
  • Distribution of the new members compared to old members - I am working from partial information here, I only have accurate numbers for about a dozen ridings and estimates for another two dozen.  I am extrapolating for the rest.
  • The dropping of Moria Stilwell and Ed Mayne from the race and the loss of the ability to defacto make a single vote choice by choosing one of them second.
  • I am giving Abbott a small boost for several days of media momentum
If/when I get more data, I will update the prediction

Second Count - assuming de Jong support goes 200, 200, and 500 respectively
  1. Kevin Falcon - 3300
  2. Christy Clark - 2950
  3. George Abbott - 2250
This distribution is not enough for Abbott to get ahead of Clark and stay in the race.

Third Count
  1. Kevin Falcon - 4700
  2. Christy Clark -  3800
My prediction is that Kevin Falcon will win on the third count.

What would it take for Abbott to get ahead of Clark?   If we have a first count where Clark is at a minimum and Abbott at maximum, we have the following:
  1. Falcon - 3100
  2. Clark - 2600
  3. Abbott - 1900
  4. de Jong - 900
This is still too far behind for Abbott to pass Clark on the second count.

If we do the same and max out de Jong we get:
  1. Falcon 3100
  2. Clark - 2600
  3. Abbott - 1900
  4. de Jong - 1000
In this scenario, if Abbott can get 70% of the de Jong support on the second ballot, he could pass Christy Clark, barely if she got no support from de Jong, that is not realistic.  Abbott needs 80% of de Jong's support to flow through to him, I do not think that is a realistic assumption.

I would like to see George Abbott win, but I do not think it is realistic at this point.  Something dramatic would have to happen to push up his numbers, something like a major defection to his campaign.

Can Clark win?   The only way she can win is if she picks up a lot of second ballot support from George Abbott and Mike de Jong.   She needs a combined 57% of their support to come her way.   I do not see her being able to get more than 45% of the Abbott supporters, even that is highly unlikely.

Factors that could mean I am way off:
  • Campaigns lied through their teeth
  • Abbott managed to quietly sign up 10,000 people strategically across BC
  • One of the others was really inefficient and signed up more than half their members in one riding
  • The party has found several thousand ineligible members and has tossed them out of the party
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