Thursday, March 31, 2011

Prediction of the Election

Here is my prediction of the results of this election based on most of the first week of the campaign

Conservatives - 147
Liberals - 75
Bloc - 50
NDP - 35
Independents - 1
Ultimately I see less movement than I had thought I would across the country.

Polls
Broadly, the Conservatives seem to be ahead of 2008, but so do the Liberals.   The biggest drop seems to be with the Greens, but I expect that to change in the polls released over the next week.  The Bloc and NDP seem to be roughly where they were in 2008

Campaign
Harper has been lacklustre and bland but with this vague nasty edge.
Layton continues to flounder around and not come across with a plan or sincerity.
Ignatieff seems slow out of the gate but seems to have had more positives than negatives
May will benefit from the debate issue for the next week, but beyond that the Greens are much weaker nationally than in 2008 or 2006.  The party seems to be in desperate need of the organizational skills of former leader Jim Harris
Duceppe - Parce que je parle un peu de francais mais et sa est tres mal, il est tres difficile pour moi de comprende les election.  Je lire Le Devoir et trois blog en francais mais je ne sais pas que passe en le election.

At this point I am giving the Liberals a bit of an edge on the others.  If over the weekend this continues I will be giving the Liberals more seats and those seats would seem to come from the NDP and Bloc more than the Conservatives.

My full regional estimates - I think I have an error in here, but I do not have the time to find it.
BC - Full details here
Cons - 22.93
NDP - 8.97
Lib - 3.94
Green - 0.16

Alberta
Cons - 27
NDP - 0.7
Ind - 0.3 - This is Edmonton Sherwood Park I am currently giving James Ford an outside chance of winning

Sask
Cons - 12.7
Lib - 1
NDP - 0.3

Man
Cons - 9.3
NDP - 3
Liberals - 1.7

North Ont
NDP - 6.6
Cons - 2.3
Liberals - 1.1

SW Ontario
Cons - 16.6
Liberals - 3.3
NDP - 3
Ind - 0.1 Helena Guergis has an outside chance right now

905
Cons - 20.4
Liberals - 10.1
NDP - 3.5

Toronto
Liberals - 19.1
NDP  - 2
Cons - 0.9

Ottawa and Eastern Ontario
Cons - 13
Libs - 3
NDP - 1

Quebec - I admit this is the province I have the most trouble with
Bloc - 50.3
Liberals - 14.3
Conservatives - 8.7
NDP - 1
Ind - 0.7

New Brunswick
Conservatives - 5.8
Liberals - 3.2
NDP - 1

PEI
Lib - 2.6
Cons - 1.4

Nova Scotia
Libs - 5.2
Cons - 3.6
NDP - 2.2

Newfoundland
Liberals - 4.8
NDP - 1.2
Cons - 1

North
Cons - 1
NDP - 1
Liberals - 1
Post a Comment