Monday, April 25, 2011

My final prediction

I am still crunching all the numbers, but here is the rough first draft

Conservatives - 153  (148-157)
NDP  - 75 (65 - 85, yes, I know this is a huge range, I am working on it)
Liberals - 54 (45-65)
Bloc - 30 (30-35)
Ind - 1

I have been looking for all manner of local clues and information on the campaigns, I am putting in the latest polling data, and I am looking at various possible scenarios.

I feel confident on the Bloc seat total.  

I am not nearly as confident on the Conservative total, the small range belies the fact that in different scenarios, different seats go Conservative.   I have about a 130 seat hard floor for the Conservatives.  Upper limit could be as much as 180 or more if everything aligns perfectly for them, if the impact of the NDP surge is to allow many Conservatives to win with as little as 32% of the vote.

The NDP - they could win a dozen seats in Quebec or three dozen.  I defy anyone to have any certainty of how it will play out in the province.  What I am certain of is the bleed of Liberal support in Montreal to the NDP, I see Montreal going orange.   Justin Trudeau could very likely have his political career ended early.

In Ontario if the public believes the NDP is the best chance to defeat the Conservatives could draw a lot of Liberals voters to strategically vote NDP this time around.    It is close races, or I should say the races that were perceived to be close before the election started, the NDP vote I suspect is going to spike strongly.

This is only a draft.
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