Thursday, April 21, 2011

Just some numbers to think about

I have no idea if they matter, but I thought I would look at the total vote of the Liberals and NDP and the gap between the two parties.

  • Election Lib+NDP   Lib-NDP
  • 2008     44.44       8.08
  • 2006     47.71      12.75
  • 2004     52.41      21.05
  • 2000     49.36      32.34
  • 1997     49.51      27.41
  • 1993     48.12      34.36
  • 1988     52.30      11.54
  • 1984     46.83       9.21
  • 1980     64.11      24.57
  • 1979     57.99      22.23
  • 1974     58.59      27.71
  • 1972     56.25      20.59
  • 1968     62.33      28.41
  • 1965     58.09      22.27
  • 1963     54.76      28.28
  • 1962     50.54      23.40 NDP ran in 218 of 265 seats

Before the 1962 election the CCF did not run full slates.

So what trends can I see?

  • From Diefenbaker to Mulroney the Liberals lead the NDP by at least 20 points and the two combined topped 50% in each election and 60% twice
  • Since the 1984 election, the two elections where the combined NDP and Liberal vote exceeded 50% were in 1988, the best result in seats for the NDP, and 2004 when Jack Layton dramatically increased the NDP vote.
  • The margin between in the Liberals and NDP was smallest in 1984, 1988, 2006, and 2008.  All of them elections won by the Conservatives.
  • In 16 elections, Three of the six closest results between the NDP and Liberals have been since Jack Layton has been leader.  
  • In 16 elections, three of the five widest margins between the Liberals and NDP were during the interregnum between Broadbent and Layton

So what does this all say to me?  I am not sure yet, thoughts, comments?
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