Monday, May 2, 2011

Vancouver Point Grey By-election

Now that people are voting federally, time to drop in and look at the Vancouver Point Grey by-election.

The main candidates are our premier Christy Clark for the Liberals and David Eby for the NDP.  The odds are clearly in Christy Clark's favour, though this is not a safe slam dunk for her.

The federal rises of the NDP will give a boost to David Eby, but will it be enough for him to win?   I currently think we will see Christy Clark take 50% of the vote and Eby 40%, but that is pure speculation on my part without any data to back up other than past election results

There are other candidates and here is a run down of them in the order they will finish.

Fran├žoise Raunet for the Green Party - I expect her to take about 4-5% of the vote, I see a lot of people that voted Green in the last three elections voting for the NDP.   In 2009 the Greens managed 8.78%, down from 15.12% in 2005.

Danielle Alie for the Chris Delaney political vehicle the BC First Party.  BC First was created by a number of the Anti-HST activists that did not play with other right wingers, the core of the party were previously part of the BC Conservatives.   Chris Delaney may have done well in the Anti-HST petition, but his track record with political party organizing in BC is not very impressive.  The party does not have a leader and has no one declaring they want the job, but I suspect Chris Delaney will be the one.

As to the Danielle Alie campaign, I can not find any social media stuff for her, not even a campaign website.   I have no idea if she is putting a lot of effort in or not, if a lot of money is being spent or not.

I suspect she will manage to get 2-3% of the vote.   Since BC First has no major media credibility at the moment, the result does not harm them.

Eddie Petrossian as an Independent.   He ran in the 2009 election as a BC Conservative in West Vancouver-Capilano and came a distant fifth.   Indepedent conservative and democratic reform activist David Marley placed ahead of him.   I honestly would be surprised if he got much more than 1.5% of the vote.

What is really interesting about him is that he joined BC First in December as their Constituency Development Director.   They may erase that press release, so I will have the text of it at the end of this post.   You have got to wonder what is going in in BC First that two of their members decide to run in this by-election.   According this this article, he has temporarily resigned from BC First.

William Gibbens as an Independent.  All I can say is read his website, maybe you can make some sense of who he is, if he is serious or it some bizarre performance art piece, and what he actually believes in.

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PETROSSIAN JOINS BC FIRST AS CONSTITUENCY DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR 
Posted on: December 14th, 2010 
EDDIE PETROSSIAN JOINS BC FIRST AS CONSTITUENCY DEVELOPMENT AND ELECTION READINESS DIRECTOR 
21 new Constituency Organizers from across province begin wave to establish BC First as alternative to BC Liberals and NDP 
NORTH VANCOUVER (December 14, 2010) - Fight HST activist and former BC Conservative Party constituency vice-president for West Vancouver-Capilano, Eddie Petrossian, has joined BC First in the role of Constituency Development and Election Readiness Director says party spokesman, Chris Delaney. 
Delaney says an additional 21 new Regional Directors and Constituency Organizers (COs) from across BC have recently joined the party to begin developing Constituency Associations for BC First. He says the addition of Mr. Petrossian as both the party’s Regional Director for North Shore and as Constituency Development Director will provide the support and expertise needed by BC First COs. 
Mr. Petrossian was a former candidate for the BC Conservatives in the last election but left to join BC First because he believes British Columbians want an alternative that is not tied to special interests or establishment parties. 
“Fighting against the HST made me realize that the establishment parties are part of the problem. The political divide in BC is no longer between left and right. It’s between creeping dictatorship and the economic and political interests of British Columbians. We need a centrist party that can pull people of every kind together to save our province. BC First is that party, and I’m honoured to be able to help build it,” said Petrossian. 
Petrossian is a former financial advisor and is currently the Business Development Manager for BNE Auto Supply. He has a BA in Economics with a Masters Degree in Leadership and Management. He is planning to complete his PhD at UBC in political science with a primary focus on international trade. 
Eddie will work with the following newly appointed Constituency Organizers from across the province to develop BC First Constituency Associations in all 85 ridings in BC:

(list of names and phone numbers taken off by me, the orginal BC First Press Release has names and phone numbers)

Delaney says the addition of Petrossian to the BC First team is critical for the party’s success. 
“I have come to know Eddie really well during the fight to end the HST. Many people may not be aware, but Eddie worked tirelessly behind the scenes to collect signatures on the North Shore, organize canvassers there, and to ensure our press conferences and public rallies were organized and successful. He is an amazingly hard worker, and we are thrilled to have his help in this instrumental role for developing the party.” 
“As BC First grows in leaps and bounds, British Columbians will become more aware that they are no longer hostages to the BC Liberals or the NDP. There is a positive choice now that will change the system to empower MLAs and to chart a new course for BC,” Delaney concluded.
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