Thursday, August 25, 2011

Election Round Up in Canada

Five provinces and one territory are voting in October and November, here are my current estimates of the results:

Prince Edward Island on October 3rd
  • Liberals 23
  • PC 4
I see nothing that says to me anything is changing in PEI from the last election.  Given the weakest of the NDP and the Greens on PEI, the new Island Party might come in third, but that is not saying much

Manitoba on October 4th
  • PC - 30
  • NDP - 26
  • Liberal - 1
The election really comes down to Winnipeg.   The North will vote NDP and the farmers PC.  What I would love to see is a poll for Winnipeg.    Actually, I would love to see any sort of recent polling to get a sense of the political winds.

Ontario on October 6th
  • PC - 55
  • Liberal - 38
  • NDP - 14
The gains for the PCs will come from the suburbs.  The NDP will make gains, but not nearly as many as most people are hoping for.   The Liberals suffer from the fact that 13 incumbents will not be running - it feels like rats leaving the ship, though one is not running because he died.

In general there will be 19 open seats in 2011 versus only 7 in 2007.

The campaign will matter and there is little to say that the Liberals will be able to make gains and are more likely to sink as the campaign goes on.

What I can not factor in is he Jack Layton effect - will he give the party a serious boost?   Even pushing the party up to 22%, and if most of that is Toronto, will have an effect on the NDP but they stall out at 18 seats unless the Liberal vote collapes.

Can the Greens win a seat?   In a well run strategic campaign they could win Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, but the possiblity of that is remote given the weak federal campaign the party ran earlier this year.   Knowing that a provincial election was coming, the party should have put 100% of their effort into this riding.

Newfoundland and Labrador on October 11th
  • PC 37
  • NDP 8
  • Liberals 3
There are few polls to go on so this a dead reckoning on my part with anecdotal opinion from the Rock.  Here are the factors at play:
The Liberal leader stepped down and Kevin Alyward was just chosen as the new leader
The NDP only ran 36 candidates in 2007 but are at about half their candidates chosen already for this election.
The NDP made gains federally and now has two MPs from the St John's area
NDP support is more concentrated and the Liberal support is more spread out.

Saskatchewan on November 7th
  • PC - 35
  • NDP - 23
There is little to indicate that there is much change in the political mood in the province from 2007, there have been very few polls and the latest one is close to the polling before the 2007 election.  I see the NDP gain three seats because they seem to be marginally ahead and the Saskatchewan Party won seven of their ridings by less than 308 votes.

added on August 26th - yes, I am aware I am going on a limb here and even the NDP in Saskatchewan thinks 20 is optimistic.  Here is some more of my thinking:
I honestly see the fall in the Liberal vote going to the NDP.  
I also believe that some of the 20,000 to 30,000 NDP voters that stayed home in 2007 will vote this time.  Finally, the Jack Factor - I see the Sask NDP getting a bump from Jack Layton.
Combined I see all of these factors adding 15K to 20K to the NDP vote.

Yukon date to be determined
  • NDP - 9
  • Yukon - 8
  • Liberal - 2
It is very hard to estimate what will happen in Yukon in the coming election, this is my pure guess at the moment.   There is one poll to go on from this summer and it is bad news for the Liberals.   Also, half the Yukon Party MLAs are not running again.   The other change is the seats, there are 19 now with Whitehorse gaining two and rural Yukon losing one.  The changes seem to work against the Yukon Party and in favour of the NDP or Liberals.

I see either the NDP or the Yukon Party winning government and neither one with much margin.

Other Elections:
BC is still in limbo as rumours swirl of a fall election.
There is an outside chance that the new premier of Alberta will go to the polls in November.
In Quebec, it is early for an election but the political turmoil could make Jean Charest interested in holding an election in early 2012.

1 comment:

Tim said...

One thing I'll point out is that winning 55 seats just gives the Ontario PC's a bare one seat majority. After October 6'th we may see discussion about some type of accord between the Liberals and NDP both in Ontario and Federally heat up considerable. All of this going when both the NDP and Liberals are facing huge leadership challenges at the federal level. I should note the Liberals in Ontario as the incumbant govt as always have the first opportunity to deliver a throne speech and I would not underestimate the possibility that McGuinty will attempt to force the NDP to choose between him or a Hudak minority.