Friday, September 30, 2011

Ontario Election - Who Knows Who Will Win

Looking at the polling numbers and how much they have increased from the last election:

  • Liberals 34% -8.3
  • Conservatives 36% + 4.4
  • NDP 24% +7.2

The NDP is looking at close to a 50% increase in their vote.   This is a large enough increase that it will be very hard to effectively judge how many seats they will win.   This is a large enough increase in their support that the normal sort of statistical and incremental analysis starts to fall apart.   Using the uniform swing approach, the NDP ends up wining around 17-20 seats.

The recent large Forum Research poll, about 400 respondents per riding, found the Liberals and Conservatives both winning 47 seats and the NDP 13.   I am not convinced that these are realistic numbers.  The Ontario Federation of Labour also was concerned about the numbers.   They got Forum to poll in nine ridings with larger samples and found different results.  

The OFL poll of the nine ridings showed that the NDP are leading in 8 and the Liberals in 1.  Last week it was NDP 4, Liberals 4, and Conservatives 1.  

What it says to me is that the results could very well surprise everyone specifically with the number of seats the NDP wins.   The shift in voter preferences is enough to likely put ridings in play no one was thinking were in play.  23-26 NDP seats on election day should not come as a shock to anyone and almost all those seats will come from the Liberals

So what is the likely result?   I think a Liberal minority is the most likely result at this time, but the chance of PC minority is possible.  Three way splits in races lead to odd results at times.  

Here is my prediction of the seats - take it with a grain of salt remembering I go out on the limb a lot more than most people do:

  • Liberals - 43 (38-55)
  • Conservatives - 40 (34-43)
  • NDP - 24 (18-26)
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