Sunday, October 2, 2011

I am shocked - Redford won in Alberta

The PCs in Alberta just chose their replacement for Ed Stelmach and I am utterly shocked that is was Alison Redford.

On September 17 the results of the first ballot came in and Gar Mar was leading up a huge amount

  • Mar - 40.76%
  • Redford - 18.74%
  • Horner - 14.55%
  • Morton - 11.73%
  • Orman - 10.12%
  • Griffiths - 4.10%

The only thing I found interesting was how much the right had abandoned the party - Ted Morton took 26.2% last time and the total vote in the 2006 election was 97,690 as compared to 59,359 in the first round this time.    It said to me the right wing of the PCs have largely left the party for the Wildrose Alliance.

With such a large lead I was certain there would be no chance that either Alison Redford or Doug Horner could catch Gary Mar.   This was further reinforced when all three candidates that dropped off after the first ballot endorsed Gary Mar.   OK, their decision looked rather self serving as I do not think anyone thought Mar would lose and the endorsement was an attempt to get in his good books.

The round two results were very surprising.

  • Mar 33,233 - 42.51% (+9,038)
  • Redford 28,993 - 37.09% (+17,866)
  • Doug Horner 15,950 - 20.40% (+7315)

The total vote went up by 18,817 - for whatever reason in 2006 and now in 2011 there was a significant increase in people that voted in the second round compared to the first.

If it were not for this large increase in second round voters, there is no chance Alison Redford could have come anywhere as close.

Vote after distributing second preferences of Doug Horner

  • Redford 37,104 - 51.11% (+ 8,111)
  • Mar 35,491 - 48.89% (+2,258)

Gary Mar lost - I am really stunned.   I also have to wonder what is going to happen to the PCs now.

Gar Mar went from 24,195 to 35,491 from the first to last count, an increase of 11,296.  Alison Redford went from 11,127 to 37,104, an increase of 25,977.

This says to me that Gary Mar has a solid base in the party and Alison Redford does not.   She was the "Not Gary Mar" candidate.  It is clear a lot of people voted for her on the second ballot in hopes of stopping Mar, but even then, there were a lot of people that chose Doug Horner who has no chance really of coming in second.

Ed Stelmach suffered for most of his whole term because he was not really the choice of any large segment of the party in 2006.   Other famous winners that came from third place in a leadership race as Joe Clark and BC NDP leader Bob Skelly.  Neither one of them did well as leaders.

Alison Redford was not in third, but her first ballot support and her final winning margin are really numbers that winners coming from third have achieved.  I have no idea how she will do, but she starts with a handicap.
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