Friday, October 7, 2011

New Ipsos Poll for BC

Ipsos Reid surveyed 1000 people of which 80% expressed a political opinion which works out to a margin of error for a 95% confidence level of +- 3.4%.  There is an added margin of error due to rounding of +- 0.5% for a total margin of error on the reported results of +- 3.9%

Headline results

  • NDP 45%
  • Liberals 38%
  • Conservatives 12%
  • Greens 6%

We are a long way from the next election, so the results are in many ways not that meaningful at the moment.

The numbers are better for the Liberals than I had expected.   It also means that the BC Liberals are among the most popular Liberals in Canada, only the PEI Liberals are doing better in terms of popular support in Canada.

The NDP are in the range of where I thought they would be.   I honestly think the upper limit for the NDP is around 45%.  

The Greens are limping, but then they seem to be doing that in other parts of the country.   In yesterday's Ontario election the party was spanked badly.   The Ontario Green vote percentage was smaller than the margin of error in many polls.

I had thought there would be a stronger support for the Conservatives, but they seem to be stuck at high fringe party levels of support.   With 12% there is not much hope winning seats.   The party needs to north of 15% or have very clear regional areas of high support.

What is interesting to me is the low number of polls in 2011, only four so far.  In 2010 we saw 11, though three of them in November and December.
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