Friday, October 7, 2011

Newfoundland Election

I am primarily interested in this election because Steve Kent is running for re-election in Mount Pearl North.  He should do well as he took over 85% of the vote in 2007 election.  Good Luck Steve!

So there have been two polls for Newfoundland released this week and one last week.

  • Pollster              PCs NDP Libs Date    MOE
  • Environics            54  33  13   Oct 4   3.7%
  • CRA                   59  25  16   Oct 3   3.5%
  • MarketQuest Omnifacts 54  33  13   Sept 30 4.6%
Looking at all three bell curves of the polls, the numbers for all the parties that fit within them are:
  • PCs 56.5%
  • NDP 29.5%
  • Libs 14%
With only three data points, these numbers have to be seen as rough estimates of support.

So what does this mean for the election?   The numbers are close to what I looked at for possible outcomes in the election on September 20th.   The biggest change is that the Liberals are slightly lower in support and the PCs slightly higher.

The Liberals seem to be uniformly in trouble through out the province, all that could save them at this point is having their two incumbent MHAs running for re-election win again, though one of them was elected in a by-election.   You can also never count out a leader of a party, especially one that has won his seat in past elections.  

The few data entrails I can glean from the polls seems to say to my that the NDP has picked up most of the Liberal support in St John's and the Avalon.  Of the 23 ridings in the region, the NDP could be a threat in about eight seats.  They are also a threat in Labrador West.

My prediction at the moment of this election, which is close to last week's, is as follows:
  • PCs 41 (38-43)
  • NDP 6 (5-9)
  • Liberals  1 (0-3)
The only change is that I think the NDP range has risen from 3-8 seats to 5-9 seats.  The PCs will do well in the suburbs of St John's, but looking at the polling the NDP seems to be a strong second in St John's itself and in parts of the Avalon and Burin peninsulas.

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