A PQ government elected with 33-34% of the vote would be one of the smallest popular mandates for a government in Canadian history.
This is the list I can find of parties that have won government in Canada with less than 40% of the vote. Left out of this list are the results in Manitoba from 1920-1949, 1952 in BC and 1921-1930 in Alberta because first past the post was not used in those elections. 1919 Ontario is also left out because the winning United Farmers were nowhere close to running a full slate. Also not on the list are a number of minority governments where the governing party achieved more than 40% of the vote such as the Federal Liberals in 1963 and 1965
- 31.34% - 1924 BC - Liberals win a minority with 23 of 48 seats - Conservatives won 29.45% and 17 seats and the Provincial Party (BC's UF or Progressives) won 24.16% and 3 seats
- 32.94% - 1941 BC - Liberals win a minority and form a coalition with the Conservatives
- 33.08% - 2007 Quebec - Liberals win a very small minority with 48 of 125 seats
- 35.34% - 1998 Nova Scotia - Liberals win a minority
- 35.7% - 1943 Ontario - PCs win a minority
- 35.89% - 1979 Federal - PCs win a minority
- 35.9% - 1992 Yukon - Yukon Party wins a minority
- 36.1% - 1975 Ontario - PCs win a minority
- 36.27% - 2006 Federal - Conservatives win a minority
- 36.32% - 2003 Nova Scotia - PCs win a minority
- 36.73% - 2004 Federal - Liberals win a minority
- 37.0% - 1985 Ontario - PCs win the most seats but the Liberals with 37.9% soon form a government with the cooperation of the NDP
- 37.1% - 1978 Yukon - PCs win a majority - it is Yukon and has a tiny electorate and tiny house, I really have trouble taking seriously
- 37.22% - 1962 Federal - PCs win a minority
- 37.34% - 1937 BC - Liberals win a majority - Conservatives managed 28.60% and the CCF 28.57%
- 37.57% - 1990 Ontario - NDP wins a majority
- 37.62% - 2011 Ontario - Liberals win a minority
- 37.65% - 2008 Federal - Conservatives win a minority
- 37.89% - 1920 BC - Liberals win a majority
- 38.02% - 1944 Quebec - Union Nationale under Duplessis wins a majority but lost the popular vote to the Liberals who scored 39.35%
- 38.27% - 1969 Manitoba - NDP wins a minority but govern with support of a Liberal MLA
- 38.37% - 1988 Manitoba - PCs win a minority
- 38.42% - 1972 Federal - Liberals win a minority
- 38.46% - 1997 Federal - Liberals win a majority
- 38.51% - 1957 Federal - PCs win a minority
- 38.73% - 1999 Saskatchewan - NDP wins exactly half the seats
- 39.20% - 1999 Nova Scotia - PCs win a majority
- 39.45% - 1996 BC - NDP win a majority but loses popular vote to the Liberals
- 39.57% - 2006 Nova Scotia - PCs win a minority
- 39.59% - 1972 BC - NDP wins a majority
- 39.62% - 2011 Federal - Conservatives win a majority
- 39.7% - 1977 Ontario - PCs win a minority
- 39.88% - 1996 Yukon - NDP wins a majority
- 39.96% - 1966 Manitoba - PCs win a majority
If the PQ were to win a majority with only 34% of the vote, that would dramatically lower than ever before. It is for that reason alone that I find the idea of them winning a majority unrealistic. They would need to be very efficient in their vote in the 100 to 105 non safe Liberal seats to for a majority government. The PQ support is strong enough among Francophones that they might be able to win a majority of francophone seats but not large enough to win an overall majority.
2 comments:
Very interesting and helpful. I sure hope that the PQ don't get a majority, especially with only about 1/3 of the vote.
Once the Quebec election is over, or when you get a chance, I'd love to read any thoughts you might have on Shane Simpson's musings that it is possible that an NDP government would remove the mandatory secret ballot in a union certification drive. I agree that there must be fairness in the process for all parties, including the unions and the workers, but simply can't understand the logic of even considering such a move. Can you?
Thank you, Bernard. Just what I was looking for.
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