Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Top Races in the 2013 BC Election

The Toss Up Seats
The following six seats are very close.   So close that the leading candidates are tied in my model.

Chilliwack
John Martin is running for the BC Liberals but when he ran in Chilliwack-Hope in the by-election last year he did not show any strong skill in campaigning.   The NDP candidate is Patti MacHonic executuve director of the Chillwack Chamber of Commerce, not where you would expect to find an NDP candidate.

Kootenay East
According to all manner of prediction models, Bill Bennett should have lost in the last election but he won.  Not only did he win, he increased his vote total when over all the Liberals lost 56,000 votes.   I think he will win but the polling numbers are not in his favour.

Nechacko Lakes
John Rustad is one of the Liberals that could lose because of the BC Conservatives pulling just enough votes from him to allow the NDP to win.

Oak Bay Gordon Head
This could be the break through for the BC Greens but with the NDP having come so close in 2009 and been competitive in 2005 this is a two race between Andrew Weaver and Jessica Van der Veen.   Sitting MLA Ida Chong is not likely to much of a factor other than to be used by the NDP to scare people to vote for the NDP.

Penticton
The NDP and Liberals both have strong candidates here.   It is not as right of centre an area like Kelowna.

Prince George Valemount
Given the polling numbers province wide, this riding is within reach for the NDP.

Close Races - In these 12 ridings I see the two leading candidates within 5% of each other

  • Abbotsford South - I think John Van Dongen will come second but I am not convinced he has the campaign team yet to win.
  • Abbotsford West - Moe Gill running here could open the way for the NDP to defeat Mike de Jong
  • Chilliwack Hope - The re-run of Gwen O'Mahoney (NDP) versus Laurie Throness (Lib).  I think Throness will win this time.
  • Parksville Qualicum - the safest of the Liberal seats on the Island will fall to the NDP in part because of the BC Conservatives
  • Peace River North - I believe that Arthur Hadland will win as an independent but I would not count out the BC Liberals
  • Saanich North and the Islands - I had originally thought this would be an easy win for the NDP, but the local strength of the Greens coupled with the weakness of the Liberals means I think this will be close on election night
  • Vancouver False Creek  - The decision on who runs for the BC Liberals could change how close I think this is.
  • Vancouver Langara - This is not a riding I normally think the Liberals should lose, but I think the NDP will prevail
  • Vancouver Point Grey - In round two of Christy Clark versus David Eby I think Eby will pull off a narrow win for the NDP
  • Vernon Monashee - I think we will see one of the strongest BC Conservative campaigns here but I still think they will come third and the NDP will win this seat with the lowest percentage of the vote of any seat in BC
  • Victoria Beacon Hill - I think this will be much closer than anyone is expecting.   I think Carole James is still likely to win, but I think Jane Sterk will be a strong second.
  • Westside Kelowna - A strong BC Conservative campaign here could do enough damage to the Liberals to allow the NDP to win with as little as 35% of the vote.



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