Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Comparing results in various Victoria area ridings in 2013, 2009 and 2005

In looking at the results, in this region the Greens took vote almost in equal proportions from the NDP and the Liberals.   In the strongest three Green races the party took an almost equal number of votes from the NDP and Liberals.   Vote splitting is not going on here.

CRD Results overall
Elect. Vote      NDP        Liberals       Greens      
2013  178,205 77,913 43.72% 50,263 28.21% 47,450 26.62% 
2009  158,042 80,696 51.06% 58,695 37.14% 17,969 11.37%

Oak Bay Gordon Head - Green gain from the Liberals
Elect. Vote      NDP        Liberals       Greens      Others
2013  23,953  7,563 28.42%  7,767 29.29% 10,722 40.43%  492 1.86%
2009  24,154 10,736 44.45% 11,266 44.79%  2,152  8.91%
2005  27,012 11,430 42.15% 12,911 47.80%  2,232  8.26%  439 1.63%

Andrew Weaver pulled more from Liberals than the NDP.   If the NDP could have managed to get their identified vote from 2009 and 2005 out to vote, they would have won.

He also won convincingly.  I put this down to one major factor I saw in few other places, a large team of active volunteers.

Victoria Beacon Hill - NDP hold
Elect. vote       NDP         Liberals      Greens      Other
2013  25,585  12,560 48.65%  4,378 16.96% 8,747 33.88%  130 0.50% 
2009  22,649  12,592 55.60%  5,998 26.48% 3,768 16.64%  291 1.28%
2005  26,322  15,064 57.21%  8,091 30.73% 2,783 10.57%  394 1.50%

In Victoria Beacon Hill the NDP vote held while the Liberals lost 1,600 votes.   The Greens gained from the Liberals but more so from the close to 3,000 increase in turnout.

Saanich North and the Islands - NDP gain from the Liberals
Elect. Vote      NDP       Liberals      Greens       Others
2013 31,562 10,515 33.27% 10,352 32.76% 10,136 32.07%   599 1.99%
2009 27,668 12,129 43.84% 12,526 45.27%  3,013 10.89% 
2005 30,143 11,265 37.37% 13,265 44.01%  4,557 15.12% 1,056 3.50%

The NDP vote fell by 1,614 whereas the Liberal vote fell by 2,174 but the Green vote rose over 7,000.   The Greens gained more from non voters than either of the other parties

Victoria Swan Lake - NDP hold (Victoria Hillside in 2005)
Elect. Vote      NDP       Liberals     Greens      Others
2013 22,655 12,350 54.49% 5.055 22.30% 5,250 23,21%
2009 20,467 12,389 60.53% 5,456 26.66% 2,459 12.01% 163 0.80%
2005 22,505 12,847 57.09% 7,042 31.29% 2,657 11.81% 480 2.13%

The NDP vote held, Liberals lost 400 votes - most of the Green increase came from the new voters

Saanich South - NDP Hold
Elect. Vote      NDP         Liberals     Greens      Others
2013  26,228 11,946 45.55%  9,256 35.29% 4,011 15.29% 1,015 3.87%
2009  23,650 11,134 47.08% 10,727 45.36% 1,561  6.60%   228 0.96%
2005  26,720 12,809 47.94% 11,958 44.75% 1,902  7.12%   565 2.11%

NDP vote was up by 800 and the Liberal vote was done by over 1,500.   The Greens also made gains from non voters.
   
Esquimalt Royal Roads - NDP Hold - the riding changed too much to allow a comparison to 2005

Elect. Vote      NDP         Liberals     Greens      Others
2013  22,745 10,963 48.20% 6,511 28.63% 4,928 21.67% 343 1.51%
2009  20,176 10,708 53.07% 6,098 30.22% 3,370 16.70% 

Here the drift seems to be from the NDP to the Greens, though nothing dramatic.   

Juan de Fuca - NDP Hold - the riding has changed too much to allow a comparison to 2005

Elect. Vote      NDP         Liberals     Greens      
2013  23,140 12,388 53.32% 7,120 30.27% 3,682 16.91%
2009  19,278 11,008 57.10% 6,624 34.36% 1,646  8.54%

All three parties vote went up but the lowest rise was for the Liberals and the largest for the Greens.

When you look at the CRD overall there is no evidence that Greens are more of a threat to the NDP than the Liberals.   There is also clear evidence that the Greens have the capacity to win more than one seat here in 2017.  
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