Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Looking at voting splitting in 5 Interior Ridings

I am looking at five ridings the BC Liberals won this election to see if there any interesting patterns.  Note that only 2013 and 2009 are one set of  boundaries and 2005 and 2001 are another.

What I find interesting in looking at this data is that whole idea of vote splitting is not going anywhere in the numbers I am looking at.   If the Greens are a problem for the NDP, they should have done better in a number of the following races.

Kootenay East - Liberal Hold - held by Bill Bennett since 2001(called Kootenay East in 2001 and 2005)
Elect Vote     NDP         Liberals    Green         BCCP/Unity
2013  16,146 5,973 36.99% 10,173 63.01%
2009  15,531 5,516 35.52%  7,973 51.34%   506 3.26% 1,536 9.89%
2005  15,855 6,939 43.77%  7,618 48.05% 1,298 8.19%
2001  15,793 3,502 22.17%  9,771 61.87% 1,229 7.78%   621 3.93%  

This riding should clearly show to people that the NDP is not the natural home for the Greens.  The NDP vote did not rise in this election even though there was no Green candidate.   Even in 2009 with BC Conservative leader Wilf Hanni running in the riding and a dramatic drop in the Green vote, the NDP vote not only did not rise, it fell.  

The Green vote was consistent from 2001 to 2005 even though the NDP vote rose dramatically

Peace River North - Liberal Hold - held by Patt Pimm since 2009
Other in 2013 is a BC Conservative, in 2009 and 2005 it was a Green

Elect Vote     NDP         Liberals      Ind           Other
2013  13,411 1,319  9.84% 7,905 58.94% 3,287 24.51% 900  6.71%
2009   8,315 1,139 13.70% 3,617 43.50% 2,657 31.95% 902 10.85%
2005   8,768 2,375 27.09% 5,223 59.57%   578  6.59% 592  6.75%

This riding is mainly interesting because Arthur Hadland with half a campaign in 2009 came within 1,000 votes of Pat Pimm.   This time around he ran a full campaign and he did increase his vote by almost 400 but the vote for the Liberals skyrocketed by close to 3,300 votes.  The turn out in Peace River North hit an all time record for voters and had one of their best percentages as well.

Fraser Nicola - Liberal Gain - was held by Harry Lali of the NDP from 2005 to 2013 and from 1991 to 2001 Harry did not run in the 2001 election (in 2005 this was Yale-Lillooet and included Hope and the Similkameen but did not include Cache Creek, Ashcroft, Clinton or Savona)

Elect Vote     NDP         Liberals      Green     Other(BCCP 2013)
2013  13,599 5,388 39.62% 6,002 44.14% 1,314  9.66%   895  6.58% 
2009  12,817 6,275 48.96% 5,494 42.86%   834  6.51%   214  1.67%
2005  16,689 8,137 48.76% 6,734 40.35% 1,529  9.16%   289  1.73%
2001  15,984 2,743 17.16% 9,636 60.29% 1,126  7.04% 1,983 12.41%

So is this a place the NDP can claim the Greens split the vote?  Not really.   The Liberals had a Conservative to content who took 895 votes meanwhile the Green vote only rose by 480 votes.  Based on the common assumptions of vote splitting logic the Liberals should have suffered and not the NDP.   Even with a rise of total increase of 782 votes the NDP vote went down by 887.

You can also see in 2005 the dramatic comeback of the NDP but at the same time the Green vote increased as well.   Harry Lali was elected in 2005 without the Greens.  

Kamloops North Thompson - Liberal Hold - held since 2009 by Terry Lake - In 2013 there were 436 other other votes, in 2009 324 in 2005  302 and in 2001 970

Elect Vote     NDP         Liberals       Green      BCCP/Unity 
2013  23,408 9,139 39.05% 12,183 52.06%     0 0.00%  1,644 7.03% 
2009  19,808 8,798 44.42%  9,351 47.21% 1,317 6.65%    
2005  23,196 9,264 43.47% 11,228 48.40% 1,608 6.93%    764 3.29%
2001  20,899 2,985 14.28% 12,128 58.03% 2,985 14.28%   790 3.78% 

In 2013 in Kamloops we had no Green candidate but there was a Conservative candidate.  The 1,317 Green votes from 2009 did not go to the NDP in 2013.  The NDP vote was only up by 341 .  Meanwhile even though there was a BC Conservative candidate taking 1,644 votes the BC Liberal vote rose 

Kamloops South Thompson Liberal Hold - Todd Stone elected for the first time - NDP ran their 2009 candidate Tom Friedman again  This was called Kamloops in 2005.  In 2013 others took 428, 

Elect Vote     NDP         Liberals      Green     BCCP/Unity
2013 26,434 9,291 35.15% 15,092 57.09%     0  0.00% 1,623 6.14%
2009 21,997 7,640 34.73% 11,917 54.18% 1,403  6.38% 1,037 4.71%
2005 22,665 9,418 41.55% 10,852 47.88% 1,632  7.20%   763 3.37% 
2001 19,289 4,389 22.75% 12,258 63.55% 2,180 11.30%   407 2.11%

The NDP gains 1,651 votes but the Liberals gained 3,175.   This while at the same time as the Conservatives gained 586 votes.   

Overall the Greens and BC Conservatives seem to have little or no impact on the votes of the NDP or the Liberals in this election. Vote splitting does not exist in reality.   

The NDP need to look at their own ground campaigns and ask why they did not have the 300+ volunteers needed to properly canvas a riding and get the vote out.  It is not the fault of Greens if people are unwilling to actively work on NDP campaigns. It is also not the fault of the Greens if the NDP runs a campaign that is lackluster and without any real vision.   To run a positive campaign you need to engage people's hope.  As Jane Sterk pointed out, a $20 a month increase in welfare is hardly a visionary approach.


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