First look at BC electoral redistribution

BC is due for a review of the populations of our ridings.   The average per riding is 51,765 according to the 2011 census.    The populations are not allowed to more than 25% larger or smaller than this and ideally more like only 10% above or below the average.

+25% is 64,706
+10% is 56,942
-10% is 46,589
-25% is 38,824

Here they are sorted by populations - blue are too large, red are too small.  Those in bold are beyond the legal limit of +-25%

Riding	Population	Percent of Avg
Surrey-Cloverdale	73570	142.12%
Surrey-Panorama	68995	133.29%
Richmond Centre	66035	127.57%
New Westminster	65955	127.41%
Fort Langley-Aldergrove	65800	127.11%
Richmond East	65310	126.17%
Langley	64020	123.67%
Comox Valley	63540	122.75%
Vernon-Monashee	61405	118.62%
Surrey-Whalley	60615	117.10%
Surrey-Newton	60115	116.13%
Vancouver-Fraserview	59775	115.47%
Vancouver-Kingsway	59345	114.64%
Richmond-Steveston	59125	114.22%
Kelowna-Lake Country	58785	113.56%
Surrey-Tynehead	58160	112.35%
Kelowna-Mission	58090	112.22%
Burnaby North	57945	111.94%
Vancouver-Kensington	57790	111.64%
Surrey-Green Timbers	57540	111.16%
Cowichan Valley	57530	111.14%
Westside-Kelowna	57480	111.04%
Burnaby-Edmonds	57340	110.77%
North Vancouver-Lonsdale	57090	110.29%
Vancouver-Point Grey	57065	110.24%
Vancouver-Langara	57040	110.19%
Surrey-Fleetwood	56550	109.24%
Vancouver-Quilchena	56440	109.03%
Saanich North and the Islands	56270	108.70%
Vancouver-False Creek	56205	108.58%
Maple Ridge-Mission	56045	108.27%
Vancouver-Hastings	55985	108.15%
Port Coquitlam	55965	108.11%
West Vancouver-Capilano	55950	108.08%
Coquitlam-Maillardville	55575	107.36%
Shuswap	55510	107.23%
Penticton	55490	107.20%
Vancouver-Fairview	55375	106.97%
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows	55325	106.88%
Burnaby-Deer Lake	54625	105.52%
North Island	54530	105.34%
Kamloops-South Thompson	54355	105.00%
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain	54325	104.95%
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant	54230	104.76%
Delta North	53945	104.21%
North Vancouver-Seymour	53405	103.17%
Abbotsford South	53375	103.11%
Burnaby-Lougheed	53315	102.99%
Abbotsford-Mission	53090	102.56%
Nanaimo-North Cowichan	52910	102.21%
Port Moody-Coquitlam	52745	101.89%
Nanaimo	52575	101.56%
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky	52575	101.56%
Kamloops-North Thompson	52545	101.51%
Surrey-White Rock	52285	101.00%
Chilliwack	52245	100.93%
Juan de Fuca	52170	100.78%
Parksville-Qualicum	51950	100.36%
Victoria-Beacon Hill	51570	99.62%
Saanich South	50830	98.19%
Abbotsford West	50790	98.12%
Chilliwack-Hope	50745	98.03%
Esquimalt-Royal Roads	50170	96.92%
Victoria-Swan Lake	50110	96.80%
Oak Bay-Gordon Head	48875	94.42%
Vancouver-West End	48595	93.88%
Powell River-Sunshine Coast	48325	93.35%
Prince George-Valemount	46920	90.64%
Delta South	46645	90.11%
Prince George-Mackenzie	44960	86.85%
Alberni-Pacific Rim	43430	83.90%
Kootenay West	40675	78.58%
Peace River North	39335	75.99%
Kootenay East	38875	75.10%
Boundary-Similkameen	38160	73.72%
Nelson-Creston	37045	71.56%
Cariboo North	32980	63.71%
Columbia River-Revelstoke	32205	62.21%
Fraser-Nicola	30535	58.99%
Skeena	29575	57.13%
Cariboo-Chilcotin	29415	56.82%
Nechako Lakes	27055	52.27%
Peace River South	26325	50.85%
North Coast	22320	43.12%
Stikine	20240	39.10%

As you can see from the list, the bottom 11 are all the rural parts of BC.   Meanwhile it is the suburbs of Vancouver that have all the ridings with too many people.   Unless there are more seats added to the legislature, rural BC will have to lose three seats to Metro Vancouver.

I suspect the Kootenaies are going to lose one of their four MLAs.   The North Coast and Stikine could be amalgamated and barely have enough people.   It will be hard to justify two MLAs coming from the Cariboo.