Thursday, May 30, 2013

First look at BC electoral redistribution

BC is due for a review of the populations of our ridings.   The average per riding is 51,765 according to the 2011 census.    The populations are not allowed to more than 25% larger or smaller than this and ideally more like only 10% above or below the average.

+25% is 64,706
+10% is 56,942
-10% is 46,589
-25% is 38,824

Here they are sorted by populations - blue are too large, red are too small.  Those in bold are beyond the legal limit of +-25%



Riding Population Percent of Avg
Surrey-Cloverdale 73570 142.12%
Surrey-Panorama 68995 133.29%
Richmond Centre 66035 127.57%
New Westminster 65955 127.41%
Fort Langley-Aldergrove 65800 127.11%
Richmond East 65310 126.17%
Langley 64020 123.67%
Comox Valley 63540 122.75%
Vernon-Monashee 61405 118.62%
Surrey-Whalley 60615 117.10%
Surrey-Newton 60115 116.13%
Vancouver-Fraserview 59775 115.47%
Vancouver-Kingsway 59345 114.64%
Richmond-Steveston 59125 114.22%
Kelowna-Lake Country 58785 113.56%
Surrey-Tynehead 58160 112.35%
Kelowna-Mission 58090 112.22%
Burnaby North 57945 111.94%
Vancouver-Kensington 57790 111.64%
Surrey-Green Timbers 57540 111.16%
Cowichan Valley 57530 111.14%
Westside-Kelowna 57480 111.04%
Burnaby-Edmonds 57340 110.77%
North Vancouver-Lonsdale 57090 110.29%
Vancouver-Point Grey 57065 110.24%
Vancouver-Langara 57040 110.19%
Surrey-Fleetwood 56550 109.24%
Vancouver-Quilchena 56440 109.03%
Saanich North and the Islands 56270 108.70%
Vancouver-False Creek 56205 108.58%
Maple Ridge-Mission 56045 108.27%
Vancouver-Hastings 55985 108.15%
Port Coquitlam 55965 108.11%
West Vancouver-Capilano 55950 108.08%
Coquitlam-Maillardville 55575 107.36%
Shuswap 55510 107.23%
Penticton 55490 107.20%
Vancouver-Fairview 55375 106.97%
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows 55325 106.88%
Burnaby-Deer Lake 54625 105.52%
North Island 54530 105.34%
Kamloops-South Thompson 54355 105.00%
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain 54325 104.95%
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant 54230 104.76%
Delta North 53945 104.21%
North Vancouver-Seymour 53405 103.17%
Abbotsford South 53375 103.11%
Burnaby-Lougheed 53315 102.99%
Abbotsford-Mission 53090 102.56%
Nanaimo-North Cowichan 52910 102.21%
Port Moody-Coquitlam 52745 101.89%
Nanaimo 52575 101.56%
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky 52575 101.56%
Kamloops-North Thompson 52545 101.51%
Surrey-White Rock 52285 101.00%
Chilliwack 52245 100.93%
Juan de Fuca 52170 100.78%
Parksville-Qualicum 51950 100.36%
Victoria-Beacon Hill 51570 99.62%
Saanich South 50830 98.19%
Abbotsford West 50790 98.12%
Chilliwack-Hope 50745 98.03%
Esquimalt-Royal Roads 50170 96.92%
Victoria-Swan Lake 50110 96.80%
Oak Bay-Gordon Head 48875 94.42%
Vancouver-West End 48595 93.88%
Powell River-Sunshine Coast 48325 93.35%
Prince George-Valemount 46920 90.64%
Delta South 46645 90.11%
Prince George-Mackenzie 44960 86.85%
Alberni-Pacific Rim 43430 83.90%
Kootenay West 40675 78.58%
Peace River North 39335 75.99%
Kootenay East 38875 75.10%
Boundary-Similkameen 38160 73.72%
Nelson-Creston 37045 71.56%
Cariboo North 32980 63.71%
Columbia River-Revelstoke 32205 62.21%
Fraser-Nicola 30535 58.99%
Skeena 29575 57.13%
Cariboo-Chilcotin 29415 56.82%
Nechako Lakes 27055 52.27%
Peace River South 26325 50.85%
North Coast 22320 43.12%
Stikine 20240 39.10%


As you can see from the list, the bottom 11 are all the rural parts of BC.   Meanwhile it is the suburbs of Vancouver that have all the ridings with too many people.   Unless there are more seats added to the legislature, rural BC will have to lose three seats to Metro Vancouver.

I suspect the Kootenaies are going to lose one of their four MLAs.   The North Coast and Stikine could be amalgamated and barely have enough people.   It will be hard to justify two MLAs coming from the Cariboo.  
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