Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Federal and Provincial Party support analysis

Ekos has recently done a poll of the political landscape in Ontario.   One of the questions they asked is federal voting intention and the results are interesting

Fed      Fed % Prov Lib  NDP   PC   Green  
Liberal  35.1%    68.7% 16.1% 10.9%  3.7%  
CPC      31.6%    11.5%  9.2% 75.8%  0.7%  
NDP      22.9%    14.1% 69.7%  5.8%  7.8%  
Green     7.9%    17.4% 14.1%  6.3% 62.2%  
The rows are federal voting intention, the columns after the first one are how that translates into provincial voting intention in Ontario.

The first figure that stands out to me is that 75.8% of people saying they would vote for the Harper government are planning on voting for the Ontario PCs, this is the highest part loyalty between levels of government.   

Next I find it interesting that 16.1% of federal Liberal voters intend to vote for the Ontario NDP - is this a Trudeau effect?   These federal Liberals/provincial New Democrats are the largest single vote shifting block on the whole table.  

I also find it astonishing that 9.2% of people intending to vote for Harper federally intend to vote for the Ontario NDP.   This is not dramatically lower than CPC supporters willing to support the Ontario Liberals.

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