Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Who will replace Adrian Dix as NDP leader?

I know Adrian Dix has not yet announced his resignation but it will come and the NDP will be lead by a new person in the 2017 election.   So who is likely to be the next leader?   Here is my attempt to try and think of who might run and have some chance of winning:

Current MLAs

  • John Horgan - personally popular but can he win this time when he came third last time?
  • Mike Farnworth - he came a close second in the last race but will he be getting too old to be leader?   He has also been an MLA from 1991-2001 and then since 2005.  That will be 22 years in the Legislature by the 2017 election. 
  • Rob Flemming - I believe he has aspirations to be leader of the party and premier, he has organizational skills but might sit this race out and wait for the next one as he is 40 years old.
  • Bruce Ralston - I think he harbours a desire to be leader and this would have to be the time he makes a run for it
  • Geroge Heyman - strong ties to the public sector unions will be not be a positive but on the other hand the NDP might want to use his time as executive director of the Sierra Club of BC to try to weaken the Green Party.
  • Kathy Corrigan - She comes from a strong NDP organization in Burnaby.   If a women were to run, she is one of the few I would see doing it, though she is close to 60 years old.
  • Lana Popham - She has a strong personal following that is mainly from outside of traditional NDP circles.  She might be convinced to run to offer a different vision of the NDP.
  • Dave Eby, Nicholas Simons, Ray Chouhan, and Harry Bains might consider running
Not currently MLAs
  • Joe Trasolini - I am 100% certain his decision to be an NDP MLA was because he wanted to be in government and wanted to have a chance to be premier someday.  He may have been defeated in May but he is not traditional NDP
  • Gregor Robertson - people may see him as a white knight to come in and save the NDP
  • Nathan Cullen - he did better than expected in the federal NDP race.   He might be seen as having enough standing and gravitas to come in from Ottawa and help the NDP win
  • Federal MPs Peter Julian, Fin Donnelly, and Kennedy Stewart might run

I am not convinced there are other mayors in BC that have enough standing that I would expect them to run.

I am once again surprised at the lack of many strong female candidates that I can come up with that might be in the running.
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