Saturday, August 10, 2013

Federal by-elections in Canada by province 1995 to current

Updated August 12th
We have had 54 federal by elections in Canada since 1995 and are waiting on four more.   It is interesting to see which provinces have a lot of by-elections and which do not.
  • Province # of byelect  Top reasons
  • Quebec       21    7 to run as MNA, 6 Federal appointments
  • Ontario      14    4 Federal appointments, 3 Personal reasons 
  • Newfoundland  7    2 Senate appointments, 2 Political reasons
  • BC            6    3 personal reasons
  • Manitoba      4    2 Run for mayor
  • Nova Scotia   2
  • Alberta       2
  • Saskatchewan  2
  • Territories   0
  • New Brunswick 0
  • PEI           0
When we look at by-elections as a ratio of current representation in the House of Commons 
  • Newfoundland     7:7
  • Manitoba         4:14
  • Quebec          21:75
  • Nova Scotia      2:11
  • British Columbia 6:36
  • Saskatchewan     2:14
  • Ontario         14:206
  • Alberta          2:28
  • Territories      0:3
  • PEI              0:4
  • New Brunswick    0:10
Newfoundland has had three by-elections in Labrador, but even without any of them it would have the highest ratio of by-elections to seats in Canada.

I find it interesting that there have been a lot more by-elections in Quebec than Ontario.  I have no idea why, but the trend is there consistently over the last 20 years.

Update on August 12
Neil Edmondson pointed out that in Quebec many Bloc MPs stepped down to run provincially for the PQ.   This lead me to analyze the reasons for why there were by-elections and where is what I got:

Reasons for the by-election
  • 13 Federal appointment Seven to the Senate, four as Ambassador/High Commisioner and two others.  Six of these were in Quebec, four in Ontario
  • 13 Personal This includes illness, family illness, retirement or taking an outside non-government position.  Three each in Quebec, BC and Ontario
  • 10 Run for provincial legislature Seven of them were in Quebec which is 1/3 of the Quebec by-elections
  • 7 Political reasons Three were to allow a seat for a new leader, three were to try and clear their name
  • 6 Run for municipal office Five were for mayor.  Two each in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba
  • 5 Deaths Two in Ontario and Quebec, one in Nefoundland
  • 3 Provincial appointments
Out of the last 54 Federal by-elections here is the score sheet:
  • Party    Held Gained Lost Net
  • Liberals  21    6     6    0
  • Bloc       6    1     5   -4
  • CPC        3    5     1   +4
  • NDP        4    2     1   +1
  • PC         2    2     1   +1 
  • Ref/CA     2    0     1   -1
  • Ind        0    0     1   -1    
    
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