Tuesday, August 27, 2013

More Analysis of Vote Splitting in the 2013 BC Election

If vote splitting is going on between the NDP and Greens there should have been some good evidence of this in the 2013 election but all the data indicates it is not happening.

First if we look at the worst raw vote losses for the BC Liberals and the net loss when compared to the NDP we get the following:
Ridings     Lib vote loss from '09  Net loss of ground on NDP
Oak Bay Gordon Head     -4,110          -330
Saanich North + Islands -2,768          -408
Victoria Beacon Hill    -1,997        -1,157 
Saanich South           -1,959        -2,208
Vancouver Quichena      -1,235        -2,194
Delta South             -1,224        -1,984

The NDP did vote did better than the Liberals in all six of those ridings.  At the same time the top four are the four of the ridings where the Greens had their biggest vote increases in 2013.

Now we turn to the biggest vote increases for the BC Liberals
Riding          Lib vote gain  Net gain compared to the NDP
Surrey Cloverdale     4,815         1,976
Peace River North     3,913         3,887
Vernon Monashee       3,488         1,953
Westside Kelowna      2,653         1,519
Surrey Newton         2,593         3,514
Kamloops Sth Thompson 2,544         1,385
Kamloops Nth Thomoson 2,353         2,534

In only one of these ridings did a Green run, Vernon Monashee, and in that case the 2013 Green was only a paper candidate versus 2009 when the Green campaigned seriously.   The lack of a Green candidate seems to have benefited the Liberals significantly more than the NDP.

Overall in 2013 the Liberals averaged an increase of 521 votes per riding versus 288 for the NDP.   Where there was no Green and not one of the four strong independents the Liberals increased their vote by 1367 votes and the NDP by 578.   61% of the net increase in vote for the Liberals came from the 20 ridings without a Green or strong independent for the NDP it was only 47.3%.  Once again, the lack of a Green seems to have benefited the Liberals more than the NDP

Comparing where the Liberals gained the most on the NDP
Peace River North     3,887 (no Green)
Surrey Green Timbers  3,536 
Surrey Newton         3,514 (no Green)
Cariboo North         3,334 (no Green)
Cariboo Chilcotin     2,851 
Kamloops Nth Thompson 2,534 (no Green)
Surrey Fleetwood      2,192
Delta North           2,094
Surrey Cloverdale     2,094 (no Green)
Vernon Monashee       1,953 (much weaker Green)

The pattern I see here among the above ten ridings is that Surrey and Interior is where the biggest gains came for the Liberals.  Once again, seven of ten there was no Green candidate in 2013.  It should be noted that in Peace River North and Cariboo North the independents had an impact on the election

Where the NDP gained the most on the Liberals
Vancouver Point Grey     3,377
North Vancouver Seymour  2,537
Vancouver Fraserview     2,504
Vancouver Mount Pleasant 2,345
Vancouver Hastings       2,302
Saanich South            2,208
Vancouver Quilchena      2,194
Delta South              1,984 (no Green)
Port Moody Coquitlam     1,928 (compared to 2009 not 2012 by-election)
Richmond Steveston       1,732

Only one of the nine risings is outside of the lower mainland and five of them are the city of Vancouver.  Delta South, because of the re-election of Vicki Huntingdon, is a bit of a different case.

The NDP lost four seats in the 2013 election
Riding              Lib margin  NDP change  Green increase 
                    of victory  from 2009   from 2009
Fraser Nicola            614     -1,315        423
Delta North              203       -971        374
Surrey Fleetwood         200        -78         27
Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows 620       +432      1,029

There is nothing in that pattern that says to me the Green vote was the factor

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