Monday, August 26, 2013

2015 Federal Election - the new boundaries make a Conservative win easier

In 2015 there will be 30 more seats than in the last election, what might it look like?

Party 2011   2011 with 2015 boundaries
CPC    166     189   +23
NDP    103     108    +5
Libs    34      36    +2
Bloc     4       4     0
Green    1       1     0

The new boundaries would seem to make it easier for the Conservatives to win again in 2015.   When we look at the 2008 results with the new boundaries and it would seem the new boundaries favour the Conservative party.  

Party 2008   2008 with 2015 boundaries
CPC    143     164   +21
NDP     37      35    -2
Libs    77      86    +9
Bloc    49      51    +2
Ind      2       2     0

In 2008 the Conservatives were 12 seats short of a majority.   With new boundaries  and 2008 results would have left them only six seats short of a majority. 

The reality is that of the 30 new seats, about 20 of them are in parts of Ontario, Alberta and BC that are strongly Conservative in nature.

The Conservatives can be reasonably certain of 80 of 104 western seats.  They should be certain of 30 seats in Ontario.  This means without the campaign starting the Conservatives are at 110 seats of 338.     The Conservatives need to only find 60 more seats to win another majority.

For the NDP I think they can only be certain of  25 to 30 seats nationwide.  Other than Mulcair I would not call any of the other Quebec seats certain.   The NDP is far off of the mark of being able to win government in 2015.   

The Liberals can be certain of 30 to 35 seats leaving them also very, very far from being government.

The Liberals, Bloc and NDP will all be fighting over some 60 or so seats in Quebec.   

I have a bunch of vote transition scenarios for 2015 and the Conservatives win the most seats even at as little as 29% of the vote with the NDP at 34% of the vote.  I have run one scenario in which the NDP, Liberals and Conservatives all manage 30% of the vote and the Conservatives win 140 seats to the NDP at 100, Liberals at 85 and Bloc with 12.

A primary reason the federal Liberal party was such a dominant party in Canada from 1921 to 1984 was because it had this huge block of seats in Quebec that it could always count on and allowed them to be half way to a majority before the campaign even started.  The 1980 election is the last time the Liberals won at least half the seats in Quebec.  The loss of this Quebec block by the Liberals was masked by their dominance in Ontario in 1993, 1997 and 2000.  Beginning in 2004 the Liberals have lost a lot of ground in Ontario.

It will be very hard for the NDP or the Liberals to win enough seats in 2015 to seriously threaten the current Conservative political hegemony in Canada.

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