Monday, November 18, 2013

My Current Prediction of the 4 Federal By-Elections being held on November 25th

I still believe that all the seats will be retained by the party that won it in the last election, though compared to the last prediction I made on October 25th, I now see Brandon Souris as much closer.  I have the Liberals doing significantly better in Provencher as well.

I am using what data I can get - past election results, past by-election turnouts, impact of candidates, riding level polls, current political scene, candidates, and local media.

Bourassa
Emmanuel Duborg    Libs 10,000 48.8%
Stephanie Moraille NDP   4,100 20.0%
Daniel Duranleau   Bloc  3,800 18.5%
Danny Polifroni    Green 1,500  7.3%
Rida Mahmoud       Cons    800  3.0%
Serge Lavoie       Rhino   300  1.5%

Brandon Souris
Larry Maguire    Cons 11,000 41.9%
Rolf Dinsdale    Libs  9,900 37.7%
Cory Szczepanski NDP   2,750 10.5%
David Neufeld    Green 2,000  7.6%
Frank Godon  Libertarian 600  2.3%

Provencher
Ted Falk                  Cons  8,000 50.0%
Terry Hayward             Libs  5,600 35.0%
Natalie Courcelles Beaudry NDP  1,600 10.0%
Janine Gibson             Green   800  5.0%

Toronto Centre - I made an error last time and overestimated voter turnout
Chrystia Freeland Libs 14,750 46.1%
Linda McQuaig     NDP  11,000 34.4%
Geoff Pollock     Cons  4,150 13.0% 
John Deverell     Green 1,500  4.7% 
The rest                  600  1.9%

Overall
Liberals      40,250 42.5%
Conservatives 23,950 25.3%
NDP           19,450 20.5%
Green          5,800  6.1%
Bloc           3,800  4.0%
Others         1,500  1.6%





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