Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Polling on Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline in BC

Recently Justason Market Intelligence released their latest poll on public opinion about the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipeline which is the eight one I know of on the subject.   We have two companies in BC have done two or more polls about public attitudes towards the Enbridge Pipeline so I thought it be interesting to look at the results over time.

Results from Justason Market Intelligence
            Oppose                  Support 
Date     strong somewhat total   strong somewhat total    
Jan 2014  50%     14%     64%     12%    17%      29%
Feb 2013  51%     16%     67%      9%    15%      24%
Oct 2012  57%     14%     71%      8%    12%      20% 
Mar 2012  50%     16%     66%     11%    11%      22%

Results from Insights West
            Oppose                  Support 
Date     strong somewhat total   strong somewhat total    
Nov 2013  28%     18%     47%     16%    26%      42%
Feb 2013  38%     23%     61%     11%    24%      35%

Even though it looks like the two companies asked the same question, the Insights West results are significantly more positive for the pipeline than the Justason polls.   Because there are only two Insights West polls, it is not possible to really see if there is any trend.  You need at least three polls to start to see if there is a trend and ideally more that.   

When I look at the Justason numbers, I do not see any dramatic shifts, yes, the latest numbers look a bit better for the pipeline but given a sample size of 600 it is too small to say there is a clear trend or not.

Here are the Combined Results - Red is Justason Blue is Insights West with the addition of an old Ipsos poll and an old Mustel poll.
            Oppose                  Support 
Date     strong somewhat total   strong somewhat total    
Jan 2014  50%     14%     64%     12%    17%      29%
Nov 2013  28%     18%     47%     16%    26%      42%
Feb 2013  51%     16%     67%      9%    15%      24%
Feb 2013  38%     23%     61%     11%    24%      35%
Oct 2012  57%     14%     71%      8%    12%      20% 
Mar 2012  50%     16%     66%     11%    11%      22%
Jan 2012  13%     18%     31%     14%    34%      48% Ipsos-Reid
May 2010  31.7%   19.3%   51%      8.1%  25.6%    33.7% Mustel

When I look at all these numbers the ones that really stick out to me are the January 2013 Ipsos Reid ones, they are out of sync with all the rest of the polls. 

When we look at the last two Insights West and Justason polls there does seem to be a positive trend for the pipeline.  Even with the more optimistic Insignts West numbers from November, the support for the pipeline still has a long way to go to equal the opposition.  The people strongly supporting the pipeline are still many fewer than those strongly opposed
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