Some thoughts on what it means if Christy Clark is premier.
First off, Randy White and Brian Peckford are happy campers tonight. It is hard to see how anyone that is a serious federal Conservative could remain with the BC Liberals. Her victory should easily double their membership and should mean some serious candidates will step up to be leader of the BC Conservatives.
Second, how do you create a cabinet when so many of the MLAs do not like the premier? She will put her own stamp on government, but what will it look like? How far does she have to surrender her desires for government to the caucus? Will we seem MLAs announcing their intention to retire? Does she get tough with dissidents or does she let them cause her trouble?
Third, she needs to be elected to the legislature soon, very soon. She needs someone to resign and hold a by-election. The obvious one is Gordon Campbell and Vancouver Point Grey, but I would hardly call that a slam dunk seat for her. The odds of winning are a pure toss up especially if you get a serious Conservative candidate. She will have to be defending herself in that by-election in a way she has never had to do. What happens if she loses? Can she get someone like Colin Hansen to resign and run there?
Fourth, does she take Bill Bennett and Blair Lekstrom back into caucus? What would they need to be able to agree to go back?
Fifth, will we see Vander Zalmesque policy making at the mic with her as premier? She has made policy promises without thinking it through first. Can she be disciplined? Who will keep her well focused?
Sixth, the NDP has relied on federal Liberals for close to half of their provincial vote, can Christy Clark bring all those voters home and reduce the NDP to 25%?
Seventh, the civil service. Of the candidates, she has the worst reputation with civil servants. You can not govern if your workers hate you. Worse will be the teachers, I know the BCTF has been irrationally anti-Campbell, but this pales in comparison to their hatred of Christy Clark.
Eighth, the feds. I do not see the federal government being friendly to the new premier.
The politics will become more interesting than they have been in many years with Christy Clark as premier.
4 comments:
I live in Point Grey and I think this area would actually be relatively friendly for her. I think what you missed in your earlier predictions was her appeal to the people who voted Liberal in the last election but didn't like what they got. Her support among the public seems high, so I wouldn't doubt her ability to get elected in Vancouver.
Also remember that she has won elections before as she was a cabinet minister.
Nevertheless, it will be interesting.
A couple of thoughts:
I don't see Bill Bennett ever coming back to the Liberals after this and I would have to say Blair Lekstrom is doubtful too. The by-election situation is very messy also. The closest analogy I can think of is what happened in Ontario with John Tory and the provincial conservatives of which the Ontario provincial conservatives are still paying the price for years later and in that situation the conservatives where opposition not government.
The one saving grace for the Liberals is I am not sure that the wounds from the infighting within the NDP that occurred in fall have healed at all and the NDP leadership race could be just as contensious.
If the bureaucrats don't like her, they can come out and play in the private sector where they will have to work a little harder and get paid a little less. As for special interest groups like the BCTF, while playing to special interest groups is good short term politics, it truly is bad long term policy. Hopefully she will have the courage and fortitude to stand up to them.
May be Harry Bloy should step aside. Christy used to represent a good portion of that riding.
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