Second Ballot Results
Candidate 2nd Ballot 1st Ballot Change
Shawn Atleo 318 59.44% 284 52.59% +34
Pam Palmater 107 20.00% 95 17.59% +12
Bill Erasmus 34 6.36% 29 5.37% +5
Diane Kelly 31 5.79% 39 7.22% -8
Terry Nelson 25 4.67% 35 6.48% -10
Ellen Gabriel 17 3.18 33 6.11% -16
Joan Jack 20 3.70%
George Stanley 5 0.93%
Total Votes 535-321 needed 540 - 324 needed to win
So we now we have to go to a third ballot unless the others all drop out.
Shawn Atleo had the most growth by far.
Showing posts with label AFN National Chief. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AFN National Chief. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
AFN Election First Ballot - Atleo Landslide
Shawn Atleo did better than I expected on the first ballot, I had thought there was more discontent with him, but clearly the Chiefs in Canada are happy with him. The media and public wanted it to look like a horse race and not a landslide like it has turned out to be.
The results say to me that the chiefs are generally happy with the leadership of Shawn Atleo. If there had been a significant discontent by the chiefs of Shawn Atleo I would have expected that to coalesce around someone like Bill Erasmus.
The result should not be surprising because he is elected by the chiefs in Canada to look after the interests of Indian Act bands and Indian Act chiefs. The AFN National Chief is not the representative of the First Nations people of Canada, he is the representative of the chiefs.
The "protest vote" candidates are Palmater, Nelson and Gabriel, they achieved a total of about 30% of the vote, much better than I had thought. I really had not thought at Pam Palmater would manage to get this many votes given she has not been part of the social circle of the chiefs. I think she managed to gather to her most of the serious anti-Atleo crowd.
The rest of the crowd was spread out thinner and more evenly than I had expected, five candidates with barely more votes than the number of nominators they had.
I was estimating 550 to 570 votes cast, 540 is a bit light.
I can not see how Shawn Atleo does not get over 60% in the next ballot. Odds are some chiefs will not vote in the second round because the race is defacto over, this lowers the number needed for 60%. Also chiefs will be going over to Shawn Atleo now because they see the writing on the wall.
- Shawn Atleo 284 52.59%
- Pam Palmater 95 17.59%
- Diane Kelly 39 7.22%
- Terry Nelson 35 6.48%
- Ellen Gabriel 33 6.11%
- Bill Erasmus 29 5.37%
- Joan Jack 20 3.70%
- George Stanley 5 0.93%
- Total Votes 540 - 324 needed to win - about 90 First Nations did not vote, 14.3% of the total
The results say to me that the chiefs are generally happy with the leadership of Shawn Atleo. If there had been a significant discontent by the chiefs of Shawn Atleo I would have expected that to coalesce around someone like Bill Erasmus.
The result should not be surprising because he is elected by the chiefs in Canada to look after the interests of Indian Act bands and Indian Act chiefs. The AFN National Chief is not the representative of the First Nations people of Canada, he is the representative of the chiefs.
The "protest vote" candidates are Palmater, Nelson and Gabriel, they achieved a total of about 30% of the vote, much better than I had thought. I really had not thought at Pam Palmater would manage to get this many votes given she has not been part of the social circle of the chiefs. I think she managed to gather to her most of the serious anti-Atleo crowd.
The rest of the crowd was spread out thinner and more evenly than I had expected, five candidates with barely more votes than the number of nominators they had.
I was estimating 550 to 570 votes cast, 540 is a bit light.
I can not see how Shawn Atleo does not get over 60% in the next ballot. Odds are some chiefs will not vote in the second round because the race is defacto over, this lowers the number needed for 60%. Also chiefs will be going over to Shawn Atleo now because they see the writing on the wall.
Monday, July 16, 2012
The AFN Election - It is the Chiefs that matter and nothing else
Whenever anyone is looking at the AFN national chief election they have to consider who the electorate is. This is not a vote by the aboriginal people of Canada, but the vote of the 620 or so eligible chiefs in Canada. This election has very little to do with issues or the bigger picture, it is all about the social relationships between the chiefs.
The chiefs in Canada meet nationally once a year but they also meet regionally. In the case of BC the chiefs see each other at First Nation Summit or UBCIC meetings. Some of these chiefs have been seeing each other at these meetings for decades now, they spent many hours in the room together and have relationships. It is the social capital of these relationships that ultimately is the primary deciding factor in the election.
Without a lot of strong personal connections with the chiefs across Canada there is no hope in getting elected. Twice the AFN has elected relative outsiders or reformers to the position of National Chief.
Ovide Mecredi elected 1991 who was defeated in 1997 even though he raised the profile of First Nations issues dramatically in the country. He lost because he had not built up a strong social capital with the chiefs across the country. I remember being at the 1997 AFN election and seeing how desperate Ovide was during the vote. The chief I worked for was supportive of him and Ovide at one point came to him almost begging him to try and build up support among the chiefs - too little too late.
Matthew Coon-Come won in 2000 because Phil Fontaine was seen as too close to the government, he did not win because he was a reformer. He was then defeated in 2003 because he was not the sort of guy that would glad hand the chiefs.
I think Ovide Mecredi and Matthew Coon-Come are two of the best leaders the AFN has had.
What people have to also understand in this election is how conservative the chiefs are. For most chiefs the position of being chief is the best paying job they will ever have. As much as they hate the Indian Act system, it is working for them on a personal level. Voting for someone that is going to dramatically rock the boat nationally is simply not something most chiefs are willing to contemplate. The chiefs are willing to accept incremental change over time. This effectively means no radical candidate has any hope of making it past the first ballot.
The chiefs in Canada meet nationally once a year but they also meet regionally. In the case of BC the chiefs see each other at First Nation Summit or UBCIC meetings. Some of these chiefs have been seeing each other at these meetings for decades now, they spent many hours in the room together and have relationships. It is the social capital of these relationships that ultimately is the primary deciding factor in the election.
Without a lot of strong personal connections with the chiefs across Canada there is no hope in getting elected. Twice the AFN has elected relative outsiders or reformers to the position of National Chief.
Ovide Mecredi elected 1991 who was defeated in 1997 even though he raised the profile of First Nations issues dramatically in the country. He lost because he had not built up a strong social capital with the chiefs across the country. I remember being at the 1997 AFN election and seeing how desperate Ovide was during the vote. The chief I worked for was supportive of him and Ovide at one point came to him almost begging him to try and build up support among the chiefs - too little too late.
Matthew Coon-Come won in 2000 because Phil Fontaine was seen as too close to the government, he did not win because he was a reformer. He was then defeated in 2003 because he was not the sort of guy that would glad hand the chiefs.
I think Ovide Mecredi and Matthew Coon-Come are two of the best leaders the AFN has had.
What people have to also understand in this election is how conservative the chiefs are. For most chiefs the position of being chief is the best paying job they will ever have. As much as they hate the Indian Act system, it is working for them on a personal level. Voting for someone that is going to dramatically rock the boat nationally is simply not something most chiefs are willing to contemplate. The chiefs are willing to accept incremental change over time. This effectively means no radical candidate has any hope of making it past the first ballot.
Monday, June 25, 2012
AFN Election
I have been meaning to post some more about the race but life has gotten in the way. Here is the list of candidates
Among the eight candidates there are four women. There are also three anishinabe candidates from Manitoba/Ontario.
I personally think there are only three candidates with any serious campaign that could win - Shawn Atleo, Bill Erasmus and George Stanley. I am do think Shawn Atleo will be re-elected but could be in trouble if there is an anyone but Atleo campaign. I suspect that an anyone but Atleo move would solidify around Bill Erasmus. In 2009 there was a strong movement like this with the three candidates that dropped off the ballot all backing Perry Bellegrade
The relationship between Shawn Atleo and the current government is seen by a lot of aboriginal people as being too close and business like. This seems to be an ongoing tension in the AFN. Phil Fontaine lost 2000 to Matthew Coon-Come because he was seen as being much to cozy with the federal Liberals, he then won in 2003 because Matthew Coon-Come was seen as being to antagonistic with the government and nothing was happening to benefit First Nations. Ovide Mecredi was defeated in 1997 because he was seen as being in too much conflict with the government.
Shawn Atleo's relationship with the current government will be the primary issue in the election.
Diane Kelly is someone I know very little about so I really can not judge how strong a candidate she will be. She certainly seems to have strength among the Treaty 3 First Nations, but I have no idea about anywhere else.
Joan Jack, I know nothing about her and I can not find any significant support base for her.
Of the other five, three of are what I would call radical candidates - Terrance Nelson, Ellen Gabriel and Pam Palmater. I can not see any of them getting any significant vote but wonder if they support each other there could be a large enough block to decide the election on July 18th. They did have 15 people nominate each one of them which is about 7% of the total electorate and I think combined they have around 15% of the chiefs. Their problem is that the AFN rules require candidates to achieve 15% of the vote on the first ballot or otherwise they are dropped. Terrance Nelson did manage to get 10.32% of the vote on the first ballot in 2009. If one of them can muster 80 to 90 votes they will make to the next round.
My current guess of support
If this does occur everyone but Shawn Atleo and Bill Erasmus would dropped from the second ballot. I think George Stanley is on the cusp of enough support to make it to the second ballot.
- Shawn Atleo - Nuu-Chah-Nulth - current national chief
- Bill Erasmus - Dene - AFN regional chief for the Northwest Territories
- George Stanley - Cree from Frog Lake Alberta - Current Alberta AFN regional chief
- Pam Palmater - a lawyer and professor in Toronto - she is Mi'kmaw but lives in Ontario
- Terrance Nelson - Anishinabe - former chief of Roseau River Manitoba
- Joan Jack - Anishinabe , from the Berens River First Nation Manitoba
- Ellen Gabriel - community spokesperson during Oka
- Diane M Kelly - Anishinabe from the Ojibwe community of Onigaming in north western Ontario but based out of Manitoba
Among the eight candidates there are four women. There are also three anishinabe candidates from Manitoba/Ontario.
I personally think there are only three candidates with any serious campaign that could win - Shawn Atleo, Bill Erasmus and George Stanley. I am do think Shawn Atleo will be re-elected but could be in trouble if there is an anyone but Atleo campaign. I suspect that an anyone but Atleo move would solidify around Bill Erasmus. In 2009 there was a strong movement like this with the three candidates that dropped off the ballot all backing Perry Bellegrade
The relationship between Shawn Atleo and the current government is seen by a lot of aboriginal people as being too close and business like. This seems to be an ongoing tension in the AFN. Phil Fontaine lost 2000 to Matthew Coon-Come because he was seen as being much to cozy with the federal Liberals, he then won in 2003 because Matthew Coon-Come was seen as being to antagonistic with the government and nothing was happening to benefit First Nations. Ovide Mecredi was defeated in 1997 because he was seen as being in too much conflict with the government.
Shawn Atleo's relationship with the current government will be the primary issue in the election.
Diane Kelly is someone I know very little about so I really can not judge how strong a candidate she will be. She certainly seems to have strength among the Treaty 3 First Nations, but I have no idea about anywhere else.
Joan Jack, I know nothing about her and I can not find any significant support base for her.
Of the other five, three of are what I would call radical candidates - Terrance Nelson, Ellen Gabriel and Pam Palmater. I can not see any of them getting any significant vote but wonder if they support each other there could be a large enough block to decide the election on July 18th. They did have 15 people nominate each one of them which is about 7% of the total electorate and I think combined they have around 15% of the chiefs. Their problem is that the AFN rules require candidates to achieve 15% of the vote on the first ballot or otherwise they are dropped. Terrance Nelson did manage to get 10.32% of the vote on the first ballot in 2009. If one of them can muster 80 to 90 votes they will make to the next round.
My current guess of support
- Atleo 35%
- Erasmus 23%
- Stanley just shy of 15%
- Kelly 11%
- Nelson 10%
- Jack 2%
- Palmater 2%
- Gabriel 2%
If this does occur everyone but Shawn Atleo and Bill Erasmus would dropped from the second ballot. I think George Stanley is on the cusp of enough support to make it to the second ballot.
Friday, May 25, 2012
AFN National Chiefs - some background on the election
Chiefs of the National Indian Brotherhood/Assembly of First Nations
- 1968–1970 – Walter Dieter - Cree - Saskatchewan
- 1970–1976 – George Manuel - Secwempec - BC
- 1976–1980 – Noel Starblanket - Cree - Saskatchewan
- 1980–1982 – Delbert Riley - Chippewa - Ontario
- Name changed in 1982 to Assembly of First Nations
- 1982–1985 – David Ahenakew - Cree - Saskatchewan
- 1985–1991 – Georges Erasmus - Dene - NWT
- 1991–1997 – Ovide Mercredi - Cree - Manitoba
- 1997–2000 – Phil Fontaine - Nakawē - Manitoba
- 2000–2003 – Matthew Coon Come - Cree - Quebec
- 2003–2009 – Phil Fontaine - Nakawē - Manitoba
- 2009–present – Shawn Atleo - Nuu-Chah-Nulth - BC
10 different men have been NIB/AFN National Chief. Five of them have been Cree, the only tribal group that has had more than one AFN National Chief. Three of the National Chiefs have been from Saskatchewan.
Time in office by First Nation affiliation:
- Cree - 18 years
- Nakawē - 9 years
- Dene - 6 years
- Secewepemc - 4 years
- Nuu-Chah-Nulth - 3 years
- Chippewa - 2 years
Time in office by Province of origin:
- Manitoba - 12 years
- Saskatchewan - 10 years
- BC - 9 years
- NWT - 6 years
- Quebec - 3 years
- Ontario - 2 years
There are about 630 potential voting First Nations and here is how many come from each province or region:
- BC - 31.3%
- Prairies - 28.6%
- Ontario - 22.0%
- Saskatchewan - 11.1%
- Manitoba - 10.0%
- Alberta - 7.6%
- North - 6.6%
- Quebec - 6.2%
- Atlantic - 5.4%
Two thirds of the eligible electors for the AFN National Chief come from west of Ontario.
There about 145 Cree Indian Act Bands and about 17 more that are part Cree. This means about a quarter of the eligible electors are connected to the Cree.
Even though BC has the most potential votes, the differences between different First Nations in BC means that is not very easy at all for anyone to bring together all the Chiefs in BC to work together.
First ballot will likely see about 550 to 570 votes. I suspect that a large number of the First Nations that do not show will be very small independent bands from BC. As an example the New Westminster Band has a population of 12.
Each of the serious campaigns is going to try and get one of their supporters in BC to get the proxy from one of the small First Nations that would otherwise not be coming to the General Assembly.
Thursday, May 24, 2012
The AFN National Chief Election is Underway
This race is one that people in Canada do not generally pay enough attention to. The AFN National Chief is in many ways on par politically with the leader of federal opposition party or the premier of a small province. The AFN National Chief speaks for about 725,000 status Indians.
Nominations opened yesterday and the field has more candidates than I expected. I thought that Shawn Atleo had done a good enough job that he would be walking to an easy re-election.
Nominations close on June 12th at midnight eastern standard time.
The 33rd Annual General Assembly will elect the next AFN Chief is Toronto on the weekend of July 17th to 19th. There is a $35,000 spending limit.
To be nominated you need to get the endorsement of 15 chiefs or which 8 have to come from a province or a territory in which you do not live.
The winning candidate needs to get the 60% of the vote in a ballot at the convention. This can lead to many deadlocked votes when there are only two candidates left on the ballot. Just to be sure this rule was still in place I checked the rules on the AFN website:
7.The winner of the election shall be that person who first gains a majority of sixty (60) per cent of the votes of the representatives of Members who are registered at the Assembly.
Each First Nation in Canada has one vote and that is exercised by the Chief. What this means is that it does not matter what the roughly 725,000 status Indians in Canada think or want, all that matters is votes of the 600 or so Chiefs. Each Chief can also have a proxy vote from another First Nation, which means a well organized campaign can come to the general assembly with large blocks of votes tied.
1/3 of the Chiefs come from BC but that is split among 30 or so different First Nation cultures. In contrast the Cree are spread out over six provinces have the most chiefs overall. As a friend said the AFN is really the Assembly of the Cree Nation.
For political junkies the AFN National Chief race is very much like leadership conventions but with more backroom deals and brokering. It is very fascinating to follow. I will try once again to post as much as I can about the race as I can.
Candidates:
Shawn Atleo - from BC - announced today that he is running for re-election
Terry Nelson - from Manitoba - former chief of Roseau River has said he is running. He is best known for recently asking the fascist president of Iran for help.
Considering running
Bill Erasmus - AFN regional chief for the Northwest Territories - he is Dene
Pam Palmater - From Toronto - Twitter - a lawyer and professor in Toronto - she is Mi'kmaw
Joan Jack - From Manitoba
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