We urgently need to add 112 more federal MPs to make representation in Parliament fair

We have a serious problem in Canada when it comes to representation in parliament because right now we are not even close to equality between the people of Canada.    The House of Commons is intended to represent the people of the country equally but this is not what we have in Canada.   Yes, the parliament has been increased to 338 members from 308 but we are still a long way off from equality.

If we were to distribute 338 seats fairly this is what the House of Commons representation

Ontario     129 +8 
Quebec       79 +1 
BC           44 +2 
Alberta      37 +3 
Manitoba     12 -2
Saskatchewan 10 -4
Nova Scotia   9 -2
New Brunswick 8 -2
Newfoundland  5 -2
PEI           2 -2
Territories   3  0

This works out to roughly 100,000 per riding other than in PEI and the North.   While the large provinces do not gain a lot overall, the important change is the drop in MPs from the low population provinces.    

Because of the Senate clause this redistribution can not happen.

If instead we were to have one MP per 75,000 people this is how it would look

Ontario      171 +50 
Quebec       105 +27 
BC            59 +17 
Alberta       49 +15 
Manitoba      16 +2
Saskatchewan  14  0
Nova Scotia   12 +1
New Brunswick 10  0
Newfoundland   7  0
PEI            4  0 - should be 2 but Senate clause raises it to 4
Territories    3  0

We would now have 450 MPs and only PEI would have more MPs than it should.   This is in my opinion the lowest number of MPs we could have have and still retain a fair representation in parliament and not get rid of the Senate clause.

I know that many people will think that adding 112 more MPs is crazy and too much, but it is much better than the status quo.   As long as the Atlantic provinces are wildly over represented in Ottawa it becomes hard for the country to governed well.    If adding 112 MPs is unreasonable to people, the alternative is to get rid of the Senate clause and allowing provinces to lose MPs if their population does not warrant the number they have.

The abolition of the Senate would remove the Senate clause and allow a fairer representation to happen.

Graphs of Area Burned in BC and Annual Wild Fire Spending from 1991 to 2013

I thought these two graphs would be interesting to see

In area burned four years really stand out but I think more telling are the minimums.  the 2008 and 2012 low fire years are much higher than the lows in the 1990s.

 I have not corrected this data for inflation

The shift in Canadian politics over the last two generations

There has been a long term but steady shift of the number of seats in the House of Commons coming from BC, Alberta and Ontario.It means that the nature of Canada as a country will change as the political power shifts.

This is a table of percentage of the seats in the House of Commons in each region and how it is changed over time

Election
Years     BC     AB   BC+AB The West Ont    Que  Atlantic
1953-65  8.30%  6.42% 14.72% 26.42% 32.08% 28.30% 12.45%
1968-74  8.71%  7.20% 15.91% 25.76% 33.33% 28.03% 12.12%
1979-84  9.93%  7.45% 17.38% 27.30% 33.69% 26.60% 11.35%
1988-93 10.85%  8.81% 19.66% 29.15% 33.56% 25.42% 10.85% 
1997-00 11.30%  8.64% 19.93% 29.24% 34.22% 24.92% 10.63%
2004-11 11.69%  9.09% 20.78% 29.87% 34.42% 24.35% 10.39%
Next    12.43% 10.06% 22.49% 30.77% 35.80% 23.08%  9.47%

The four provinces of Atlantic Canada now have fewer seats than any one of the four provinces with the most seats.   In the 1988 election BC had as many seats as all of Atlantic Canada.  In the 2015 election Alberta will have more seats than Atlantic Canada.   In the 1950s and early 60s BC and Alberta combined had only six more seats than Atlantic Canada.

Quebec has also been on long term decline with respect to its relative number of seats in the House of Commons.   From 1953 to 1965 the gap between Ontario and Quebec was only 10 seats, it will now be 43 seats.   Quebec had more seats than all of the West till 1979 to 1984, it now only has two more seats than BC and Alberta combined.

For many years the Liberal Party of Canada could win power because it would win the vast majority of the seats in Quebec.  In 1980 the Liberals won 74 seats in Quebec leaving them only 67 seats required from the rest of the country to achieve a majority.   In the next election if a party were to win all of the seats in Quebec, they would still have to win 92 seats in the rest of the country to get a majority.

BC and Alberta have combined seen a 50% rise in their proportion of the seats in the House of Commons.   To be able to win a majority government in Canada now requires that you have success in the west, specifically in BC and Alberta.  Alberta has been a right wing strong hold going back generations but BC has also reasonably right wing over the last two generations.  In the 13 elections since 1972, only in 1988 when the NDP won 19 of 32 seats did the right not win the majority of the seats in BC.

2015 Federal Election - the new boundaries make a Conservative win easier

In 2015 there will be 30 more seats than in the last election, what might it look like?

Party 2011   2011 with 2015 boundaries

CPC    166     189   +23

NDP    103     108    +5

Libs    34      36    +2

Bloc     4       4     0

Green    1       1     0

The new boundaries would seem to make it easier for the Conservatives to win again in 2015.   When we look at the 2008 results with the new boundaries and it would seem the new boundaries favour the Conservative party.  

Party 2008   2008 with 2015 boundaries

CPC    143     164   +21

NDP     37      35    -2

Libs    77      86    +9

Bloc    49      51    +2

Ind      2       2     0

In 2008 the Conservatives were 12 seats short of a majority.   With new boundaries  and 2008 results would have left them only six seats short of a majority. 

The reality is that of the 30 new seats, about 20 of them are in parts of Ontario, Alberta and BC that are strongly Conservative in nature.

The Conservatives can be reasonably certain of 80 of 104 western seats.  They should be certain of 30 seats in Ontario.  This means without the campaign starting the Conservatives are at 110 seats of 338.     The Conservatives need to only find 60 more seats to win another majority.

For the NDP I think they can only be certain of  25 to 30 seats nationwide.  Other than Mulcair I would not call any of the other Quebec seats certain.   The NDP is far off of the mark of being able to win government in 2015.   

The Liberals can be certain of 30 to 35 seats leaving them also very, very far from being government.

The Liberals, Bloc and NDP will all be fighting over some 60 or so seats in Quebec.   

I have a bunch of vote transition scenarios for 2015 and the Conservatives win the most seats even at as little as 29% of the vote with the NDP at 34% of the vote.  I have run one scenario in which the NDP, Liberals and Conservatives all manage 30% of the vote and the Conservatives win 140 seats to the NDP at 100, Liberals at 85 and Bloc with 12.

A primary reason the federal Liberal party was such a dominant party in Canada from 1921 to 1984 was because it had this huge block of seats in Quebec that it could always count on and allowed them to be half way to a majority before the campaign even started.  The 1980 election is the last time the Liberals won at least half the seats in Quebec.  The loss of this Quebec block by the Liberals was masked by their dominance in Ontario in 1993, 1997 and 2000.  Beginning in 2004 the Liberals have lost a lot of ground in Ontario.

It will be very hard for the NDP or the Liberals to win enough seats in 2015 to seriously threaten the current Conservative political hegemony in Canada.

Leger recently asked about public opinion about the Senate.   The survey was of 1,503 people on the internet.

What is most interesting is that the current form of the Senate is wildly unpopular.

           Nation  Atl  Que  Ont MB/SK AB  BC      
Abolish      32%   28%  50%  26%  32%  25% 26%
Reform #1    29%   21%  23%  36%  21%  25% 32%
Reform #2    19%   33%  13%  16%  20%  33% 17%
Status quo    5%    3%   2%   7%   5%   3%  5%
Do not know  15%   15%  12%  15%  22%  14% 20%   

Reform #1 - elected senators that are term limited and represent provinces proportionally
Reform #2 - elected senators that are term limited and each province has an equal number of senators

Of people with an opinion, 38% of the public wants the Senate abolished and 56% want it reformed and 6%   what to retain the status quo.   What I find interesting is that it is in Quebec that there is the strongest mood for abolition of the senate and the lowest level of support for abolition is in Alberta where only 29% of the people with an opinion favour abolition.

When it comes to reform, Atlantic Canada and Alberta prefer an equal senate than one that is proportional based on provincial populations.

I had really expected to see a higher level of support for the status quo in Ontario, Quebec and the Atlantic Canada.   The abolition of the Senate would increase the political power in Canada of BC, Alberta and Ontario.   I am very surprised that there was not higher support for the status quo.

One very positive impact of the abolition of the Senate would be the end of the constitutional floor for MPs for provinces.   PEI and New Brunswick would not have any constitutional protection for their over representation in the House of Commons.   It would be possible to reduce their representation which then would make it possible to reduce representation for Newfoundland, Manitoba, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan as well.   Over all we could reduce number of MPs in Ottawa by about 15.

New Electoral Boundaries Shaft Rural B.C.

My first posting at Huffington Post Canada

B.C. is going from 36 to 42 MPs which means all of the federal electoral districts need to be redistributed. This process that started in 2012 culminated with a final report Monday by the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for B.C. It's bad news for residents of the B.C. Interior because it favors urban parts of the province.

Rural B.C. is home to a large aboriginal population and the most significant part of the forest industry in Canada. It is a region that is geographically very different than the rest of the country and has challenges no one else needs to worry about. It needs better representation in Ottawa than it gets now, but the commission report does nothing to improve things even though they could have.

Each riding in B.C. should have 104,763 people within it, the electoral quota, but in the Interior and North the report recommends 109,116, or 4.2 per cent above average. In the 604 area code region, the average is 101,923, or 2.7 per cent below average.

There are 1,750,000 British Columbians who do not live in the 604 area code area. Based on the electoral population quota for B.C. there should be 16.7 MPs outside of the Lower Mainland but the report only calls for 16. Five of six new MPs from B.C. will come from Vancouver and area.

B.C. beyond Hope has a population of one million, which is almost the same as the population of Saskatchewan with 1,033,381. The North and Interior will only have nine MPs even though based on the electoral quota they should have 10. In comparison, Saskatchewan will continue to have 14 MPs for a similar population.

In Canada, urban areas tend to have a higher than average riding population than the rural areas. Ontario's eight smallest populations are in rural ridings but this is not the case here. In B.C., almost all the lowest populations are in Fraser Valley or suburban Vancouver.

A fair distribution of the seats in B.C. would have been 11 in the Interior and North, seven on Vancouver Island and 24 in the 604 area code — and not, as recommended, 26 in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

The riding of North Okangan Shuswap has a population of 121,062 — which is not only the highest in B.C., it is one of the highest in Canada. On the other hand, suburban Richmond West has a population of only 93,863, or almost 27,000 fewer people.

North Okanagan Shuswap is also not a small compact electoral district like the ones in urban Canada. At 13,780 square kilometers it is more than twice as large as PEI.

Does it really matter if the B.C. Interior has nine or 11 MPs? It does because even a couple of extra MPs will increase the voice of B.C. residents in Ottawa.

Rural B.C. MPs already have a tough job representing their areas because of the time it takes to get around a large B.C. riding and the time it takes to get to Ottawa. The MPs in Canada with the worst travel schedules either come from the three northern territories or from B.C. outside of the Lower Mainland.

With a large geographic area, difficult travel, and a high population, the ability of a rural MP from B.C. to do a good job of representing their area is severely hampered. MPs from rural B.C. are more likely to burn out or to not do their job well than anywhere else in Canada.

If there were more rural B.C. MPs issues like the mountain pine beetle, treaty negotiations, pipelines, and environmental assessments would have a higher profile in federal politics.

The chances that the final report will be significantly altered is highly unlikely which means rural B.C. will have to live with bad representation levels till 2023 or later.

Electoral Boundaries Commission Slices and Dices the Comox Valley

Currently all of the Comox Valley is part of the Vancouver Island North riding,   With the changes to electoral boundaries in BC because of the six new federal seats Vancouver Island was destined to get one and all of our electoral boundaries were likely to be changed a lot.    I had expected them to stick with their initial proposal in this area as I was certain my more radical suggestion of making all the natural resource extraction areas on the Island one riding was not going to fly.

Hard to see, but the original proposal was for a line down the middle of the Comox Valley

Initially the Commission proposed a line running down the valley following what was the Island Highway in the past.   While I did not think it was smart to split the Comox Valley, this division made some sense if you were going to do it.    They have now released their final report and they decided to use the municipal borders of Courtney.    For the life of me I can not understand why they would use those boundaries because Courtney has some of the more irrational local government boundaries on the Island.  Courtney has an exclave - an area of the town that is not physically connected to the rest of the town.

In the case of Courtney they decided to use municipal boundaries, but when it comes to the largest municipality on the island, Saanich, they happily carved it up it three ridings with little of no consideration of any rational geographic reasons.

Proposed boundary between Courtney-Alberni and Vancouver Island North-Comox-Powell River

Canada will now have a riding with an exclave.

Federal Boundaries Commission Final Report for BC

The final report of the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for BC has tabled their report.

My first pass will be the populations.   I looked at the populations in the original proposal and it was generally reasonably even with only only seven proposed ridings more than 5% over the electoral quota of 104,763 and six smaller than 95% of the electoral quota.   The final report allows for much more variance in populations.  12 have 5% more population than the quota and 10 have 5% less population than the quota.

In the original proposal the largest population was 114,676, now it is 121,062.

All the underlined ridings are not in Metro Vancouver or the Fraser Valley - once again the largest populations are in the parts of BC with the largest ridings by area and the ones with the most difficult travel schedule for the MPs.

Name of the new Riding                    2011 pop  +- from Quota

1. North Okanagan-Shuswap                    121,062   15.56%
2. Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo                 118,618   13.23%
3. Nanaimo-Ladysmith                         114,998    9.77%
4. Saanich-Juan de Fuca                      113,004    7.87%
5. West Van-Sushine Coast-Sea to Sky Country 112,875    7.74%
6. South Okanagan-West Kootenay              112,508    7.39%
7. Surrey Centre                             111,486    6.42%
8. Victoria                                  110,942    5.90%
9. Courtney-Alberni                          110,391    5.37%
10. Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam                  110,277    5.26%
11. Vancouver East                            110,097    5.09%
12. Kelowna-Lake Country                      110,051    5.05%
13. Fleetwood-Port Kells                      109,742    4.75%
14. North Vancouver                           109,639    4.65%
15. New Westminster-Burnaby                   108,652    3.71%
16. Cloverdale-Langley                        108,519    3.59%
17. Port Moody-Coquitlam                      108,326    3.40%
18. Cariboo-Prince George                     108,252    3.33%
19. Kootenay-Columbia                         107,589    2.70%
20. Prince George-Peace River                 107,382    2.50%
21. Surrey-Newton                             105,183    0.40%
22. Burnaby South                             105,037    0.26%
23. Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola       104,398   -0.35%
24. Saanich-Gulf Islands                      104,285   -0.46%
25. Vancouver Island North-Comox-Powell River 103,458   -1.25%
26. Vancouver Centre                          102,480   -2.18%
27. Vancouver Quadra                          102,416   -2.24%
28. Vancouver Kingsway                        102,003   -2.63%
29. Vancouver South                           100,966   -3.62%
30. Burnaby North-Seymour                     100,632   -3.94%
31. Delta                                     100,588   -3.99%
32. Vancouver Granville                        99,886   -4.66%
33. Cowichan-Malahat-Langford                  99,160   -5.35%
34. Abbotsford                                 96,819   -7.58%
35. Steveston-Richmond East                    96,610   -7.78%
36. Fort Langley-Aldergrove                    94,883   -9.43%
37. South Surrey-White Rock                    94,678   -9.63%
38. Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge                   94,111  -10.17%
39. Richmond West                              93,863  -10.40%         
40. Chilliwack-Hope                            92,734  -11.48%
41. Mission-Matsqui-Fraser Canyon              90,871  -13.26%
42. Skeena-Bulkley Valley                      90,586  -13.53%

I do not think is is an overall improvement at all.

The Interior and North have 9 ridings for 982,046 people, they should have have 10.2 ridings if all we were considering was population.   This is not counting the population of the Fraser Canyon that has been grafted onto a riding that includes Mission and half of Abbotsford.   There is more than enough justification for a 10th riding.

Vancouver Island has 756,238 people in seven ridings, the Island should have 7.2 ridings, it is not dramatically over the limits as the Interior and North are but certainly there there could be some case made to attempt to come to some change that would allow for one more Island riding especially if one were to include the Sunshine Coast with Powell River.

Senate Appointments by Prime Minister

Stephen Harper filled the five vacancies in the Senate today.

 Here is the list of appointments to the senate by Canadian Prime Ministers - I am leaving out the four  elected senators.  I have also worked out how often PMs have appointed senators.

Prime Minister  Appmnts  frequency 

1. Mackenzie King     103   75.98 days
2. John Macdonald      91   76.10 days
3. Wilfird Laurier     81   68.68 days
4. Pierre Trudeau      81   69.65 days
5. Jean Chretien       75   49.20 days
6. Robert Borden       62   51.55 days
7. Brian Mulroney      56   57.20 days (appointed 1 elected senator)
8. Louis St Laurent    55   57.09 days
9. Stephen Harper      50   50.90 days (appointed 3 elected senators)
10. Mike Pearson        39   46.80 Days
11. John Diefenbaker    37   57.59 days
12. Richard Bennett     33   57.67 days
13. Paul Martin         17   46.29 days
14. Alexander Mackenzie 16  112.31 days
15. Arthur Meighen      15   41.67 days
16. Mackenzie Bowell    13   37.92 days
17. Joe Clark           11   24.82 days
18. John Abbott          6   87.83 days
19. John Thompson        5  147.40 days
20. John Turner          3   26.33 days
21. Charles Tupper       1   68.00 days
22. Kim Campbell         0

Stephen Harper will shortly have two more senators he can appoint due to mandatory retirement, though one of them is from Alberta so the replacement should be Scott Tannas based on the 2012 election in Alberta.  In total there will be 11 mandatory retirements before the next federal election.

Current Party Standings in the Senate
Conservatives 65
Liberals 36
Independents 3 - one of them refers to themselves as a PC senator

Serious Federal Independents in the last six elections

One of the reasons we do not see many independents elected in Canada is because we have had very few serious campaigns run by independents.   If more people ran strong campaigns as independents

A made a list of all the serious independent campaigns I could find from the last six general elections of which I found 30, well 29, I also included one fringe party candidate who spent a lot of money and did very badly.   Only in five of these races was the independent successful and three had been elected previously as an MP for a party.  11 of the independent campaigns were from sitting MPs that were either expelled or left their party, only 3 of them won re-election as an independent.  They are the underlined ones on the list.  17 of the 30 campaigns were from people that had at sometime been an MP before.

The only real independent to win in the last six elections has been Andre Arthur.   When we factor out the MPs that had been with parties, we are only left with 11 people that have seriously tried to run as independents.

My cut off was based on several factors, how much was spent, how they finished in the rankings and percentage of the vote they achieved.   It is not perfect but I think I have captured every serious campaign.

2011 - 5 Serious campaigns.  2 were sitting MPs, 1 had been an MP and one more had run a strong campaign in 2008

• Chambly-Borduas - Jean-Francois Mercier came third with 11.3% of the vote and spending 6% of the legal limit.  This is a very borderline serious campaign in my mind.
• Edmonton-Sherwood Park - Jimmy Ford came second with 29.5% of the votes and spending 44% of the limit, less than half what the winning Conservative spent.  He had run in 2008 as an independent as well but 2011 was not a close race like 2008.
• Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier - the sitting independent Andre Arthur came second with 27.8% of the vote.  He only spent 29% of the limit but was not defeated by the Bloc that spend almost three times as much, but by the NDP.    He had win in 2006 and 2008 as an independent.   
• Renfrew Nipissing-Pembroke - Hec Clouthier came second with 18.7% of the vote and spending 85% of the limit - he outspent the sitting Conservative MP.  He had been the Liberal MP from 1997 to 2000 and had run a strong second place campaign as an independent in 1993.
• Simcoe-Grey - sitting independent MP Helena Guergis came third with 13.5% of the vote.  She spent only 55% of the limit, which was less than the fourth place Liberals and the winning Conservatives but much more than the second place New Democrat.   She had been elected as a Conservative in the past.

2008 - 5 serious campaigns, the 2 winning independents who were sitting MPs.

• Calgary Northeast - Roger Richard came third with 13.2% of the votes and spending 69% of the limit.
• Cumberland--Colchester--Musquodoboit Valley - Bill Casey the siting independent MP was elected with 69.0% of the vote.  He spent 88% of what he was allowed and spending almost as much as the other three candidates combined.
• Edmonton-Sherwood Park - Jimmy Ford came second with 32.5% of the votes and spending 38% of the limit, only a bit more than 1/3 of the winning Conservative.  He came within 3 percentage points of winning.
• Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier - sitting independent MP Andre Arthur won re-election with 33.5% of the vote.  This was a drop of 6.3 percentage points from 2006 even though there was no Conservative candidate.  He only spent 10% of the limit, much less than the second place Bloc candidate.
• Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - Howard Galganov coming third with 5.7% of the vote.  He spent 54% of what he was allowed to.  He had run as an independent in 1997.

2006 - 5 serious campaigns - 2 were sitting MPs and one was a former MP.  

• Battlefords-Lloydminster - Jim Pankiw came third with 14.4% of the vote.   He spent 95% of the limit, more than all the other candidates combined.  He was a Reform/CA MP from 1997 to 2002 and then as an independent.
• Brome – Missisquoi - Heward Grafftey ran as a Progressive Canadian candidate and came 5th with 4.0% of the vote.  I have him on this list because he spent 78% of the limit and did so badly.  He more or less matched the Bloc, Liberals and Conservatives in spending.  He was an MP in this riding for the PCs from 1958 to 1968 and again from 1972 to 1980.
• Churchill - sitting independent MP Bev Desjarlais came third with 17.2% of the vote and spending only 25% of the limit, much less than the winning Liberals and second place NDP.  She has been elected as a New Democrat in the past.
• Peace River - Bill Given came second with 20.3% of the vote and spending 94% of what he was allowed, over $17,000 more than the winning Conservative.  His 2006 result is the strongest finish for a non Conservative in the last four elections in Peace River.
• Portneuf – Jacques-Cartier - Andre Arthur is elected with 39.8% of the vote and only spent 1% of the limit.

2004 - 9 serious campaigns of which 5 were sitting MPs ran and only one was elected

• Desnethé – Missinippi – Churchill River - Rick Laliberte was the sitting independent MP and came fourth with 9.9% of the vote.  He only spent 17% of what he was allowed.  He had been elected in 2000 as a Liberal and in 1997 as a New Democrat.
• Jonquière – Alma - sitting independent MP  Jocelyne Girard-Bujold came third with 6.0%  of the vote and spending 38% of the limit. She has been elected as a Bloc member in the past.
• Labrador - Eric Condon came third with 10.4% of the vote and spending nothing.  He ran in the 2005 by-election but his vote went down to 5.7%
• Nunavut - Manitok Thompson came second with 15.7% of the vote and spending 6% of the limit, much less than the others running.
• Regina – Lumsden – Lake Centre - sitting independent MP Larry Spencer came 4th with 4.9% of the vote.    He spent 28% of what he was allowed, which was the least of any candidate.  He was elected in 2000 as a CA MP.
• Scarborough-Rouge River - Raymond Cho placed second with 17.9% of the vote.  He spent 88% of what was allowed, the most of any candidate.
• Souris-Moose Mountain - Grant Devine came second with 27.4% of the vote.   He spent 82% of what was allowed, the most of any candidate.   This is the only close race in the last four elections in this riding.  He was once the PC premier of Saskatchewan.
• Saskatoon-Humboldt - sitting independent MP Jim Pankiw came 4th with 20.0% of the vote.  He spent 100% of the limit.  He had been elected as a CA member in 2000.
• Surrey North - Chuck Cadman was the sitting MP and was reelected with 43.8% of the vote and spending 93% of what he was allowed to spend.  He was out spent by the fourth place Conservative.  He had been elected as a Reformer and Canadian Alliance MP.

2000 - 4 serious campaigns of which three were sitting MPs

• Burin-St George's - Sam Synard placed second with 25.7% of the vote and only spending 36% of the limit, less than the winning Liberal or the third place PC candidate.
• Crowfoot - sitting independent Jack Ramsay came 4th with 5.6% of the vote.  He spent 225 of the limit.  He had been the CA MP elected in 1997.
• Portage-Lisgar - siting independent MP Jake Hoeppner finished fourth with 10.3% of the vote and spending 61% of the limit, about the same as the first place CA candidate and the second place Liberal.  He had elected in 1997 as a CA MP.
• York South-Weston - John Nunziata, a sitting independent MP, placed 2nd with 41.3% of the vote. He spent 99% of the limit.

1997 - 2 serious campaigns of which one was a sitting MP that was re-elected.

• Mount Royal - Howard Galganov came second with 20.9% of the vote.  He did not spend a lot, only 31% of what he was allowed and was outspent by the winning Liberal and third place PC.  
• York South-Weston - John Nunziata the sitting independent MP won with 45.0%  of the vote and spending 97% of what was allowed.  He has been elected originally as a Liberal.

You should feel sorry for BC MPs because of the gruesome travel schedule only they have to endure among Canadian politicians

This is one part of my presentation to the Electoral Boundaries Commission tonight.

One of the problems BC MPs face but others in Canada do not is how long they have to be in the air each week.   

I researched the current schedules of the airlines in Canada to see how bad it is for BC MPs.   The table does not include time to get to the airport, waiting in the airport to leave and the arrival time.   Stop over times are part of the flight times.    Most BC MPs have to fly through Vancouver or Calgary before reaching their destination.

Here are the flight times airport to airport for an MP from BC that is expected to be in Ottawa from Monday 7 am to Thursday at 3 pm

Location	Total flight time	Thursday flight to BC	Sunday return to Ottawa	Increase on YVR flight time
YVR – Vancouver	09:47	04:32	05:15
YLW - Kelowna	12:27	06:03	06:24	02:40
YYJ – Victoria	12:54	06:02	06:49	03:04
YKA - Kamloops	13:19	06:04	06:49	03:32
YCD - Nanaimo	13:22	05:37	07:55	03:35
YXC - Cranbrook	14:18	06:47	07:31	04:32	Mountain time
YXX - Abbotsford	14:50	07:14	07:36	05:03
YYF- Penticton	15:59	08:43	07:16	06:12
YXS – Prince George	16:35	08:47	07:48	06:48
YXT - Terrace	18:03	07:57	10:04	08:16
YQQ - Comox	18:44	09:34	09:10	08:57
YXJ – Fort St John	18:53	08:27	10:26	09:06	Mountain time
YWL – Williams Lake	16:00	06:37	09:23	06:13	Thursday return not possible
YCG - Castlegar	17:50	09:57	07:53	08:03	Thursday return not possible
YYD - Smithers	18:15	08:37	09:38	08:28	Thursday return not possible
YPR – Prince Rupert	20:33	11:07	09:26	10:49	Thursday return not possible

Here is a list of times from airports elsewhere in Canada - BC and Yukon are the only locations in Canada with a three time difference from Ottawa

Location	Total flight time	Time change
YQM - Moncton	03:04	-1
YHZ - Halifax	03:16	-1
YYG- Charlottetown	03:20	-1
YFC - Fredericton	04:49	-1
YWG - Winnipeg	05:11	1
YSJ – Saint John	05:53	-1
YQX - Gander	07:14	-1.5
YQY – Sydney	07:25	-1
YEG - Edmonton	07:58	2
YYC - Calgary	08:09	2
YXE - Saskatoon	08:24	1 or 2
YYT – St John's	08:49	-1.5
YQR - Regina	10:22	1 or 2
YYR – Goose Bay	11:40	-1
YZF - Yellowknife	13:27	2
YXY - Whitehorse	19:51	3

Saskatchewan Boundary Changes

I am very happy to see that the Electoral Boundaries Commission for Saskatchewan has decided to do away with the mixed urban/rural ridings.   The urban/rural mixed ridings was very beneficial for the right side of the spectrum but not good at all for the NDP leading them being shut out since 2004.

There will now be three distinct Saskatoon ridings - Saskatoon West, Saskatoon Centre-University, and Saskatoon-Grasswood.  Regina will have two urban ridings, Regina-Lewvan and Wascana.  Regina Qu'appelle remains the only urban/rural split riding.

The NDP should be able to win two Saskatoon and one Regina ridings because of the changed boundaries for a net loss of three seats for the Conservatives.   Without a huge shift in the vote and the retirement of Ralph Goodale the results in 2015 for Saskatchewan could be Conservatives 8, NDP 6.

The loss of up to five seats for the Conservatives would make it that much harder to achieve another majority government while at the same time making in more realistic to see the NDP becoming the largest party in the parliament in one of the next two elections.

Ranking the proposed BC ridings by population

More looking at the report.

With 4,400,057 people in 42 ridings means an average of 104,763 per riding
+- 5% range is 99,525 to 110,001

1. South Okanagan-West Kootenay - 114,676
2. North Okanagan-Shuswap - 112,399
3. Kelowna Lake Country - 111,577
4. Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo - 111,231
5. Vancouver Island North 110,769 
6. Nanaimo-Cowichan 110,413 
7. Surrey Centre - 110,174 
8. Nanaimo-Alberni 109,624  
9. Kootenay-Columbia - 109,058
10. Cariboo-Prince George - 108,840
11. Saanich-Gulf Islands 108,244 
12. Central Okanagan-Coquihalla - 107,929
13. West Surrey-Whalley - 107,827
14. Esquimalt-Colwood 107,565 
15. North Vancouver - 107,384
16. Prince George-Peace River - 107,382
17. North Surrey-Guildford - 106,551
18. West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country - 106,174
19. South Cowichan-Juan de Fuca 105,487  
20. Vancouver East - 104,883
21. New Westminster-Burnaby East - 104,786
22. Vancouver Centre - 104,142
23. Victoria 104,136
24. Burnaby North-Seymour - 103,707 
25. Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam - 103,632
26. Vancouver South - 103,610
27. Abbotsford-Sumas - 102,971
28. South Surrey-White Rock - 102,771
29. Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon - 102,619
30. Vancouver-Quadra - 102,416
31. Vancouver-Granville - 101,879
32. Burnaby South-Deer Lake - 101,778
33. Langley-Cloverdale - 101,526
34. Vancouver-Kingsway - 100,918
35. Delta - 100,588
36. Mission-Matsqui - 100,414
37. Richmond East - 99,359
38. Richmond West - 98,239
39. Fort Langley-Aldergrove - 97,804
40. Port Moody-Coquitlam - 97,621
41. Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge - 96,956
42. Skeena-Bulkley Valley - 89,998

What stands out to me when I look at this list is that of the seven ridings that are more than 5% over the average, four are in the Thompson Okanagan, two are on the island and only one in the lower mainland.

When you look at the ones with the smallest populations, five are from the lower mainland and only one from the north.

Of the eight ridings in the Interior of BC, all of eight of them have above average populations

This redistribution is very much biased towards the lower mainland and against the rest of the province.  

The riding of Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon has to be altered.   Everything west of Hope needs to be moved to the Fraser Valley ridings.   Pemberton needs to be with West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country.  Doing this would all there to be ten ridings fully in the interior or the north.

14 of the 21 largest ridings in this proposal are outside of the 604 area code.   

Redistribution on Vancouver Island

Every ten years the federal ridings are reviewed and the 2012 electoral boundary commission for BC has released their proposed boundaries for BC.   This time around we get six more seats in BC which means there needed to be major changes. 

Vancouver Island goes from six ridings to seven ridings.  This is the list in descending order of population in the proposed ridings:

• Vancouver Island North 110,769 (118,374) - this riding does gain Powell River
• Nanaimo-Cowichan 110,413 (131,118)
• Nanaimo-Alberni 109,624 (127,275)
• Saanich-Gulf Islands 108,244 (116,749)
• Esquimalt-Colwood 107,565 (132,300 as Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca)
• South Cowichan-Juan de Fuca 105,487 (40,046 from the CRD and 65,441 from the CVRD)
• Victoria 104,136 (110,942)

These seven MPs will represent 756,238 people, 5.067 more people than the 10 MPs from New Brunswick represent.  Newfoundland and Labrador has seven MPs but 241,702 fewer people.   Our political voice is still much smaller than it would be if were on the east coast.

We currently have three ridings in the Victoria area, Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, and Saanich-Gulf Islands.  The proposal calls for us to have three and half - Victoria, Saanich-Gulf Islands, Esquimalt-Colwood, and South Cowichan-Juan de Fuca.   

Saanich-Gulf Islands does not change much, it loses the area of Saanich west of Quadra and south of Mackenzie.   There are not enough changes to really call this a change and Elizabeth May should be in an unchanged situation.

Esquimalt-Colwood takes in all of Esquimalt, View Royal and Highlands but also parts of Victoria, Colwood, Langford and Saanich.   It is as if the boundaries were drawn without any reference to the local municipalities. This is a gain of 8.505 from Saanich-Gulf Islands and 6,806 from Victoria.  At the same time 40,046 people are moved from what has Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca to South Cowichan-Juan de Fuca.     This would seem to be the riding for Randall Garrison with 92,254 of the population of the proposed riding already being represented by him..

Victoria with 104,136 people loses Vic West but is otherwise the same.   I personally think it makes more sense having a riding that does not divide up Victoria.  I do not see Denise Savoie in danger in this riding with the changes though I am not convinced she will run in 2015.

South Cowichan-Juan de Fuca with 105,487 - this includes everything up to North Cowichan.  It is effectively the new riding on the island.  It should be a safe NDP riding.

There will be a public hearing on Wednesday October 17th at the Victoria Conference Centre at 7 pm.  You have to let them know in writing by August 30th that you want to appear.


North the Malahat I am concerned about how certain communities are sliced and diced.   Courtney is split in two, half in Vancouver Island North, half in Nanaimo-Alberni.  


Vancouver Island North gets Powell River added to it, not one can ever seem to agree long term where Powell River should go.


Nanaimo-Alberni only has a tiny sliver of the City of Nanaimo, it should really be something like Alberni-Comox Valley.  You would think that the small sliver could be in Nanaimo-Cowichan.


Nanaimo-Cowichan should be renamed, most of the Cowichan is in South Cowichan-Juan de Fuca.


There will be hearings up island 

• Courtenay, Crown Isle Resort & Golf Community Monday, October 15, 2012 7:00 p.m.
• Nanaimo, Coast Bastion Inn Tuesday, October 16, 2012 7:00 p.m

It is worth noting that Powell River, which is being radically shifted where it is located, does not get a hearing.   Also the Cowichan Valley, which has dramatic changes, does not get a hearing.

Proposed Federal Riding Boundaries in the Interior

The 2012 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission has issued their report with the proposed changed boundaries.   The quotient for BC is 104,763 people per riding.  Notice that almost the ridings on the list are above that number?   The Interior was royally screwed in this report.

These are the populations of the proposed ridings:

1. South Okanagan-West Kootenay - 114,676
2. North Okanagan-Shuswap - 112,399
3. Kelowna Lake Country - 111,577
4. Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo - 111,231
5. Kootenay-Columbia - 109,058
6. Cariboo-Prince George - 108,840
7. Central Okanagan-Coquihalla - 107,929
8. Prince George-Peace River - 107,382
9. Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon - 102,619
10. Skeena-Bulkley Valley - 89,998

The total population of these ten ridings is 1,075,709, an average slightly above the provincial average.  The total population of Saskatchewan is 1,033,381 but they get 14 MPs.   

This is not an increase in seats for the interior, but Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon is more interior now than before.   Eight of the ridings are above average in size, the top four largest are all in the Thompson-Okanagan

Eight of the ridings make sense to me:

• Kootenay-Columbia is largely the same though does gain Nelson and area that was within in British Columbia Southern Interior.
• South Okanagan-West Kootenay is a fairly significant chance from what was BC Southern Interior.   The riding loses Nelson and the Similkameen west of Keremeos but gains Penticton.    This riding will end up being Penticton centric.
• Kelowna-Lake Country is only changed with the loss of downtown Kelowna to North Okanagan-Coquihalla.
• North Okanagan-Shuswap (formerly Okanagan-Shuswap)  the areas of the Columbia Shuswap Regional District that were in Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo as well as the area in the TNRD around chase and Okanagan Indian Band IR#1 to Central Okanagan-Coquihalla.
• Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo remains largely the change though loses 100 Mile House, Valemount and everything south of the city limits of Kamloops.
• Prince George-Peace River gains Valemount and is rejigged in Prince George itself.
• Skeena-Bulkley Valley and Cariboo-Prince George are not really changed.

The last two do not make sense:

Central Okanagan-Coquihalla is changed from Okanagan-Coquihalla through the loss of Penticton area but would gain the western Similkameen, all of downtown Kelowna and everything south of the city limits of Kamloops.  This is a dogs breakfast riding in my view.  The population is mainly in the Kelowna are but includes areas in a host of other local jurisdictions.   Some of the smaller locations in this riding have been in a fundamentally different riding in each of the last three redistributions.

Chilliwack-Hope extends from the eastern Fraser Valley all the way to 100 Mile House.  On what planet could anyone thing 100 Mile House and Chilliwack should be in the same riding? It also includes Pemberton.   It is the bits left over between the south coast and the interior all through into one riding.   This riding makes no sense on any level and is an exercise in population balancing and nothing else.

Hearing Dates:

• Prince George, Coast Inn of the North Monday, September 17, 2012 2:00 p.m
• Cranbrook, Heritage Inn Hotel & Convention Centre Monday, October 1, 2012 7:00 p.m.
• Nelson, Best Western Baker Street Inn Tuesday, October 2, 2012 7:00 p.m.
• Castlegar, Fireside Inn Hotel & Conference Centre Wednesday, October 3, 2012 7:00 p.m.
• Penticton, Penticton Lakeside Resort Tuesday, October 9, 2012 7:00 p.m.
• Kelowna, Ramada Hotel & Conference Centre Wednesday, October 10, 2012 7:00 p.m.
• Kamloops, Kamloops Convention Centre Thursday, October 11, 2012 7:00 p.m.

New Brunswick Redistribution

The report of the New Brunswick Electoral Commission is out and I am not impressed.


The baseline - with a 2011 population of 751,171 the average population of a New Brunswick riding should be 75,117. This means:

• +-5% is 71,361 to 78,873 - this is the ideal range should be the primary goal of the commission
• +- 25% is 56,338 to 93,896

Existing boundaries and populations:

• Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe - 98,539 - 218th out of 308 ridings
• Fredricton - 93,181 - 232/308
• Saint John - 84,670 - 253/308
• Beausejour - 78,076 - 274/308
• Acadie-Bathurst 77,792 - 276/308
• Fundy Royal - 73,484 - 281/308
• Tobique-Mactaquac - 68,709 - 291/308
• New Brunswick Southwest - 63,618 - 296/308
• Madawaska-Restigouche - 61,106 - 297/308
• Miramichi - 51,996 - 300/308

Proposed boundaries and populations

• Beausejour-Dieppe - 92,072 +22.57%
• Saint John - 85,838 +14.27%
• Moncton-Riverview - 80,825 +7.60%
• Fundy-Quispamis - 79,387 +5.68%
• Acadie-Bathhurst - 79,340 +5.62%
• Fredriction - 78,359 +4.03%
• Tobique-Saint John River Valley - 73,656 - 8.53%
• New Brunswick Southwest - 65,592 -12.86%
• Madawaska-Restigouche - 62,515 -16.78%
• Miramichi - 53,587 -28.66%

Miramichi - Not Appropriate
Only two ridings fall into the +-5% range and one is not even within the +-25% range.  The population difference between the most populous and least populous riding is almost 40,000 people

I do not think there is a case for Miramichi to have such a small population.   The addition of part of the northern reaches of the proposed Beausejour-Dieppe.  The addition of Richibucto, Saint Charles and Saint Louis parishes, Saint Louis de Kent and Rexton villages, and Richibucto town would move 8743 people from Beausejour-Dieppe to Miramichi meaning their respective populations would be 83,329 and 62,330. It also only increases the Miramichi riding by only 702.81 sq km

The commission considered doing this move but decided not to do it for specious reasons.

A riding is only allowed to be outside of the +-25% range under special circumstances.   On no level do I think this test has been met in the case of Miramichi.  

• It is not a large riding by Canadian standards at 17,000 square kilometres.   Cariboo Prince George is more than five times the size and has a population that is twice as large.
• Not every community of interest can always be within one riding - even then I do not think this applies here in any case.
• The access to the riding is not difficult, the airport in Moncton is only about a 140 kilometer drive from Miramichi, a drive of 1 hour and 40 minutes

Special circumstances are places like Labrador, Churchill in Manitoba, Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River in Saskatchewan, or Abiti-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou.  All four of these are many times large than all of New Brunswick and all four of them have numerous communities that do not have year round road access.   They really are ones special circumstances were intended for.  The Saskatchewan reference gave latitude to consider these unique northern ridings but was never intended to be common.


Allowing the proposed Miramichi riding is an insult to the idea of voters in Canada having equal representation.


Rural versus Urban
I am a big supporter of rural communities in Canada and do not want to see their representation reduced but in the case of New Brunswick I think there needs to be some changes.

There are three urban ridings in New Brunswick but I think there should really be more.  Here is the trend for the three main urban areas over the last 15 years

• Census area      2011     2006    2001    1996
• Moncton CMA     138,644 126,424  118,678 113,495
• Saint John CMA  127,761 122,389  122,678 125,705
• Fredricton CA    94,268  86,226   81,346  78,950
• Total           360,673 335,039  322,702 318,150
• Pct of Province  48.01%  45.90%   44.24%  43.10%

The trend is clear and means that by 2016 half the population will live within the area of one of the three urban centres and that by the next redistribution in 2022 the urban areas are likely to have 53-54% of the provincial population.  


The proposed riding of Fundy-Quispamsis takes in suburbs for Moncton and Saint John.  It makes no sense as a riding.  Is the MP there to represent the suburbs of one or the other urban centres of the small rural sandwich between the two?

With the proposed changes Moncton will effectively have two MPs, one from Moncton-Riverview and the other from Beausejour-Dieppe.  Fredricton does not have the population to talk about two ridings so one is enough.   It is Saint John that should really have a second MP.

I would add the remainder of Albert county to the Moncton area and move the northern boundary of Beausejour-Dieppe south by moving all of Kent county into Miramichi.   This means the two ridings have a combined population of 173,004 or 86,502 each.  Miramichi ends up with 79,006, above average for the moment but over the next ten years the population will continue to decline and likely mean this riding would be under the quotient by 2022.


The two Saint John ridings would contain all of Saint John and Kings counties for an average of 73,108 per riding.   You move the remaining Queens county to New Brunswick Southwest which then has a population of 58,495, low but still within the range.