Showing posts with label US Politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US Politics. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Somehow I ended up the Ted Cruz mailing list

Anyone that knows me would know I am not in the least supportive Ted Cruz to be elected to anything even if up until recently he was a fellow Canadian.

I subscribe to the Economist's view of him
Mr Cruz will not win the presidency, since he repels the swing voters who decide things. But he could still do harm. If he turns the Republican primary into a conservative purity contest, in which anyone softer on Mr Obama is labelled a sell-out, other contenders may be dragged so far to the right that they become unelectable in the general election. That would be bad for the Republican Party and for America. Voters in 2016 deserve a choice between two grown-up candidates.
This is an email I recently received
__________________________________________:




Bernard --

Have you seen this?

I have less than 4 hours left.

Please -- right now -- read below and contribute before 11:59pm.

For liberty,

Ted Cruz


From: Ted Cruz
To:
Subject: 7 hours
 
Cruz For President
Bernard,

We don't have much time. So, I'll be brief.

My deadline is less than 7 hours away, and I just got off the phone with Lauren, my National Finance Director.
**I need 3 more donors in your area BEFORE midnight**

Bernard, as a personal favor to me, will you help us meet our Money Bomb goal by making an immediate contribution -- it is imperative that we don't come up short. After the barrage of attacks...it's clear: as conservatives, we are in the fight of our lives.

Please, before you do anything else -- click here and make a Money Bomb contribution of at least $5 or as much as $35 or even more if you can afford it.

 STOP-GAP $100 » 

 STOP-GAP $35 » 

 STOP-GAP $5 » 

 OTHER AMOUNT » 

My campaign finance report is about to come under intense scrutiny from every media outlet, Democrat, and presidential hopeful in the country.

I announced for President to defend the Constitution and restore the promise of America, but we can only win with the support of courageous conservatives like you.

There are less than 7 hours left in the Money Bomb Challenge.

Will you step up and stand with us?

For liberty,

Ted Cruz

P.S. If you haven't already, will you click here right now and help me meet this Money Bomb Challenge with a most generous donation of $100, $35, $5, or whatever you can afford? 


















PAID FOR BY CRUZ FOR PRESIDENT
www.tedcruz.org

Copyright © 2015 All Rights Reserved | Privacy Policy

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Obama 332 to Romney 206 - Nate Silver got the US election right

I have been following US presidential elections closely since late 1987 when I was 22 and started to read the Economist weekly.    It is only with my discovery of Nate Silver when he started projecting the US election on the Daily Kos in late 2007 that I finally found someone that could give me the data and analysis I was looking for to understand what is going on in the US election.   In 2008 he got 50 or 51 right, he only missed Indiana

I won a few bets on the US election about who would win - the last ones I took about three or four weeks ago I was agreeing to four to one odds that Obama would win.  The only reason I had any confidence in making those bets was because of all the data Nate Silver provided.

Nate Silver had the states breaking out 332 Obama and 206 Romney - he got all 51 correct this time.   In 2008 he missed one stated.   He projected a popular vote of 50.8% Obama to 48.3% for Romney.   At the moment we are at Obama 50.4% and Romney 48.1%.  There are about 1 to 1.5 million votes still to come in  and mainly in locations that are pro Obama.   At the end of all the counting the vote percentage should be 50.6% Obama and 47.9% Romney.   Nate Silver looks like he will end up being marginally high for both candidates.

There was a single state where the winner and loser were within one percentage point, Florida.   This was also the only state at the end of the election that Nate Silver had as actually competitive.  

For the last week or so I have been pointing out to people that this was not a close presidential election and that Obama had a lock on the electoral college.  In the worst case scenario it would be Obama 281 to Romney at 257, but they seemed overly pessimistic.  I was leaning towards Obama 303 to Romney 235 until last Friday when I became convinced from the Silver data that Obama would win Florida.

Nationwide polls are useless in predicting the US election, something I had realized years ago.  Over the last week people were listening to nationwide polls that showed Obama and Romney close to each other, what they were not listening to were the polls showing Obama overwhelmingly winning all the swing states and even threatening to win North Carolina.

The closest Romney ever came in Nate Silver's projection of winning was a 1/3 chance on October 14th - the notional electoral college was Obama 285.6 to Romney 252.4 on that date and vote percentage of 49.9% Obama and 49.0% Romney.

The only surprise in this election was the Democratic win in the North Dakota Senate seat - admittedly it was a close race and there were few polls to go on.  He did also lean towards the Republicans winning the Montana senate seat but called it a close race and the Democrats won.

Monday, November 5, 2012

The day before Obama's Re-election

I can not find a single prognosticator on the US election that sees any chance for Mitt Romney winning but the media keeps talking about a close race.   On the media websites their predictions of the electoral college are at dramatically lower than what is bring predicted by those that use serious statistics to come up with predictions.

Here are the current predictions out there from the serious prognosticators - remember, 270 electoral college votes are needed to win:


Obama Romney ties
Nate Silver 307.2 230.8
Electoral-vote.com 294 220 24
Votamatic.org 332 206
Princeton Election Consortium 303 235
Intrade 303 235

All of them have Obama significantly above the 271 mark.   Several states that have been polling consistently for Obama would have to change to Romney for him to win.   Realistically both Ohio and Virginia would have suddenly vote Romney contrary to what all the polling is saying.

It is now more likely that Obama will retain all the states he won in 2008 than lose either of Obio of Virginia.

Meanwhile in the House of Representatives it looks like the Democrats will take a number of Republican seats, anywhere from 6 to 20 seats when compared with the 2010 results.   The best estimates I can find have the results as 208 to 227.

In the Senate it looks like the Democrats will win 52 or 53 seats to the Republicans 47 or 48.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

The US Debate - what a useless piece of TV

Today Mitt Romney is being declared the winner of the debate last night.   There was no winner because both the candidates looked bland and without any ideas.  They expressed no leadership of any sort.

Saying Mitt Romney won is like talking about two AHL teams that have missed the playoffs in one of their last games of the season.   One of the teams wins but it is meaningless.

I think back to one of the best off the cuff interviews given by any politician ever, Pierre Trudeau in October of 1970.   Just watch Trudeau below and think about the fact there was no prep for this and compare his skills with those of either Romney or Obama.   This is not about liking Trudeau or agreeing with him, but just about how masterfully he can answer the questions.

Obama and Romney have been preparing for the debate for months and the result was this lacklustre 90 minutes of TV.   The debate could have been better if there had been moderator interested in actually moderating and had intervened to keep the candidates focused on answering the questions.

The Americans need to bring in someone from the UK because clearly there are no TV journalists in the US that can moderate debates.    They would be well served by Jeremy Paxman or Jon Snow.

Can you imagine like this BBC Jeremy Paxman interview of Michael Howard taking place in the US or even in Canada?   Can you imagine any journalist in North America having the guts to question a politician like this?



Or one can see how Jon Snow handles MP Zac Goldsmith in 2010.


Monday, September 24, 2012

Various Predictions of the US Presidential Race and other races

I thought I would go through the list of a bunch of the sites that are making predictions on how the electoral college count will go in the US Presidential Race and how the  pundits think the house and senate will go as well.

Presidential Race - the variation amazes me:
Site               Obama  Romney Toss-up
Huffington Post     332    191    15
electoral-vote.com  328    206     4
Nate Silver         309.3  228.7
Washington Post     255    206    77
AP Projection       247    206    85
Real Clear Politics 247    191   100
NY Times            237    191   110
CNN                 196    159   183
USA Today           196    191   151
What I find interesting that at the Huff Post the race is done but at US Today Romney and Obama are almost tied.

US Senate
Site                Dems  GOP  Toss-up
Nate Silver         52.0  48.0  
electoral-vote.com  52    47    1 
Washington Post     49    45    6  
Huffington Post     49    45    6
Real Clear Politics 48    44    8
NY Times            47    46    7

US House - the predictions are close to each other
Site                Dems  GOP  Toss-up
Huffington Post     186   231   18
NY Times            184   229   22
Real Clear Politics 183   229   23
Washington Post     182   226   27   

Friday, August 31, 2012

The US Republican Party 2012 Platform......... sigh

I read the 2012 Republican platform and I am stunned.   Remember that the definition of most people in Canada I am right wing.

Here are some random bit and my comments - I can not comment on all of it because it would take too long because these is simply too much to marvel at for its ideological extremity and political naivety.

Protecting Human Rights  
To those who stand in the darkness of tyranny, America has always been a beacon of hope, and so it must remain. That is why we strongly support the work of the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom, established by Congressional Republicans to advance the rights of persecuted peoples everywhere. It has been shunted aside by the current Administration at a time when its voice more than ever needs to be heard. Religious minorities across the Middle East are being driven from their ancient homelands, fanaticism leaves its bloody mark on both West and East Africa, and even among America’s Western friends and allies, pastors and families are penalized for their religious convictions. A Republican Administration will return the advocacy of religious liberty to a central place in our diplomacy.

Seriously??!?!   With all the serious human rights issues in the world you only mention religion?   I assume this means Mitt would work hard to protect the Muslims in China......

We call for a Constitutional amendment requiring a super-majority for any tax increase, with exceptions for only war and national emergencies, and imposing a cap limiting spending to the historical average percentage of GDP so that future Congresses cannot balance the budget by raising taxes.

Certainly no one that knows how government or economics worked on that passage.  Though I assume it is a through away to the teaparty types when there is no chance in hell that this sort of constitutional amendment could ever pass.

Determined to crush the double-digit inflation that was part of the Carter Administration’s economic legacy, President Reagan, shortly after his inauguration, established a commission to consider the feasibility of a metallic basis for U.S. currency. The commission advised against such a move. Now, three decades later, as we face the task of cleaning up the wreckage of the current Administration’s policies, we propose a similar commission to investigate possible ways to set a fixed value for the dollar.

First off it is cool it is Obama's fault that George W Bush destroyed the US budget while sitting back and letting the housing bubble happen.   The housing bubble did not need to happen and a few decent regulations like in Canada would have stopped the worst of it.

No serious person in economics thinks a gold standard or such is a good idea or makes any sense.   A commission effectively investigating a return to the gold standard would be a huge waste of money and distraction.   The US dollar is the fixing point globally and has no reason to be fixed to something else of lesser value or importance.  


Defending Marriage Against An Activist Judiciary
A serious threat to our country’s constitutional order, perhaps even more dangerous than presidential malfeasance, is an activist judiciary, in which some judges usurp the powers reserved to other branches of government. A blatant example has been the court-ordered redefinition of marriage in several States. This is more than a matter of warring legal concepts and ideals. It is an assault on the foundations of our society, challenging the institution which, for thousands of years in virtually every civilization, has been entrusted with the rearing of children and the transmission of cultural values.

A Sacred Contract: Defense of Marriage 
That is why Congressional Republicans took the lead in enacting the Defense of Marriage Act, affirming the right of States and the federal government not to recognize same-sex relationships licensed in other jurisdictions. The current Administration’s open defiance of this constitutional principle – in its handling of immigration cases, in federal personnel benefits, in allowing a same-sex marriage at a military base, and in refusing to defend DOMA in the courts – makes a mockery of the President’s inaugural oath. We commend the United States House of Representatives and State Attorneys General who have defended these laws when they have been attacked in the courts. We reaffirm our support for a Constitutional amendment defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman. We applaud the citizens of the majority of States which have enshrined in their constitutions the traditional concept of marriage, and we support the campaigns underway in several other States to do so.

Why do they care so much about this issue?   I have yet to hear a single reason why same sex marriage is a bad idea.   There is nothing with the US Constitution that says marriage has to between a man and a woman.  It is a distraction for issues that matter.  


The Continuing Importance of Protecting the Electoral College  
We oppose the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact or any other scheme to abolish or distort the procedures of the Electoral College. We recognize that an unconstitutional effort to impose “national popular vote” would be a mortal threat to our federal system and a guarantee of corruption as every ballot box in every state would become a chance to steal the presidency.

Right now in the US presidential election the vote only matters in a handful of states.   In order of importance: Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Florida, Colorado, Nevada and Iowa.   If you do not live in one of those seven states your vote in the presidential election is meaningless.    One person one vote is the only way the US president should be elected.


States or political subdivisions that use all-mail elections cannot ensure the integrity of the ballot. When ballots are mailed to every registered voter, ballots can be stolen or fraudulently voted by unauthorized individuals because the system does not have a way to verify the identity of the voter. We call for States and political subdivisions to adopt voting systems that can verify the identity of the voter.

Military men and women must not be disenfranchised from the very freedom they defend. We affirm that our troops, wherever stationed, be allowed to vote and those votes be counted in the November election and in all elections. To that end, the entire chain of command, from President and the Secretary of Defense, to base and unit commanders – must ensure the timely receipt and return of all ballots and the utilization of electronic delivery of ballots where allowed by State law.

Voting by mail is suspect unless you are in the military.

We support State laws that require proof of citizenship at the time of voter registration to protect our electoral system against a significant and growing form of voter fraud. Every time that a fraudulent vote is cast, it effectively cancels out a vote of a legitimate voter.

OK, so how do you prove citizenship?  There is no mandatory national ID only for citizens in the US so what would be good enough?   The only thing I can think of is a passport.  Birth certificates are no good because you could have emigrated.


The Second Amendment: Our Right to Keep and Bear Arms 
We uphold the right of individuals to keep and bear arms, a right which antedated the Constitution and was solemnly confirmed by the Second Amendment. We acknowledge, support, and defend the law-abiding citizen’s God-given right of self-defense. 

God-given right of self-defense, too bad for the atheists.

We call for the protection of such fundamental individual rights recognized in the Supreme Court’s decisions in District of Columbia v. Heller and McDonald v. Chicago affirming that right, and we recognize the individual responsibility to safely use and store firearms. This also includes the right to obtain and store ammunition without registration. 

So government can regulate how many pets you have but not how many bullets?

We support the fundamental right to self-defense wherever a law-abiding citizen has a legal right to be, and we support federal legislation that would expand the exercise of that right by allowing those with state-issued carry permits to carry firearms in any state that issues such permits to its own residents.

Firearms can be a great hobby and are the most effective tool for hunting, but they do not serve any useful purpose in self defense.  

Gun ownership is responsible citizenship, enabling Americans to defend their homes and communities.

That is utter bullshit, it is that very attitude of taking the law into your hands and using the threat of lethal force does not make for a healthy society.  It is also a slap in the face to the police as it assumes they are incompetent.

We condemn frivolous lawsuits against gun manufacturers and oppose federal licensing or registration of law-abiding gun owners. We oppose legislation that is intended to restrict our Second Amendment rights by limiting the capacity of clips or magazines or otherwise restoring the ill-considered Clinton gun ban.

Why does the US need the world's most restrictive gun control laws in the world?   Because it seems Americans are incapable of responsible gun use.


The Fifth Amendment: Protecting Private Property 
The Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment- “nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation”-is a bulwark against tyranny; for without property rights, individual rights are diminished. That is why we deplore the Supreme Court’s Kelo v. New London decision, allowing local governments to seize a person’s home or land, not for vital public use, but for transfer to private developers. We call on State legislatures to moot the impact of the Kelo decision in their States by appropriate legislation or constitutional amendments. Equally important, we pledge to enforce the Takings Clause in the actions of federal agencies to ensure just compensation whenever private property is needed to achieve a compelling public use. This includes the taking of property in the form of water rights in the West and elsewhere and the taking of property by environmental regulations that destroy its value

I am vaguely stunned here, I agree with this until they get to the regulation part.   Government has a right to regulate and that will have impacts on property values.

 Respect for Our Flag: Symbol of the Constitution  
The symbol of our constitutional unity, to which we all pledge allegiance, is the flag of the United States of America. By whatever legislative method is most feasible, Old Glory should be given legal protection against desecration. We condemn decisions by activist judges to deny children the opportunity to say the Pledge of Allegiance in its entirety, including “Under God,” in public schools and encourage States to promote the pledge. We condemn the actions of those who deny our children the means by which to show respect for our great country and the constitutional principles represented by our flag.

A flag is a flag and has no value or relevance to governance.   There is no place for wasting any breath on this at all.

We oppose statehood for the District of Columbia.

because that would be 2 more Democratic Senators and 3 electoral college votes.  Washington DC can continue as a colonial possession of the US.

Monday, August 27, 2012

Who would I support in the US Presidential Election?

(I hit publish instead of save to draft for this yesterday)

I long have preferred ex-governors or former vice-presidents as potential president of the US.   Both roles are part of the executive branch of government and are fundamentally different than the legislative branch.   My primary concern about Barak Obama was that he had no experience to prepare him to be president.

I know my preference is not the only criteria.  Here is how the last ten presidents break out:
  • Had been governor   Had not been governor
  • Richard Nixon       John Kennedy
  •                     Richard Nixon
  • Jimmy Carter        Lyndon Johnson
  • Ronald Reagan       Gerald Ford
  • Bill Clinton        George Bush
  • George W Bush       Barak Obama
(I made an error on Nixon, he ran for governor but lost - thanks to the person that pointed that out to me)

The two most effective presidents were Clinton and Reagan, clearly the worst by any measure was George W Bush.    Carter, I still think he was a better president than most people give him credit for and understood what he could do given a hostile congress.


Four of the presidents that had not been governors had been vice-president.

Nixon, he was a crook but actually on the whole governed well.  John Kennedy was a decent enough president but honestly did not govern all that well.  Johnson knew how to govern as becomes very clear in Robert Caro's four, eventually five, volume epic on Johnson.  Ford and Bush 1 were both mediocre at governance.

Barak Obama, I am not sure how to view him yet, it is too soon to decide how to slot him into the historical record.   I will say I have been more impressed with him than I expected and completely understand what circumstances are limiting his ability to move his agenda forward.  I think much of his weakness comes from not having had any sort of role in the executive branch of government.   He has learned and I expect him to be able to govern better in his second term.

I think the evidence shows that you are more likely to get a better quality of government from a former governor. This all relevant because Mitt Romney and Gary Johnson are both ex-governors.

In 2008 I wanted Bill Richardson to be the Democratic nominee but his campaign went nowhere.  Bill Richardson was a good Governor of New Mexico and I think would have made for a very good US president.

The 2012 Candidates:
  • Barak Obama - Democrat
  • Mitt Romney - Republican
  • Gary Johnson - Libertarian  I am including him because he is polling at 5-8% nationally and at 15% in New Mexico.  The party is also on the ballot for certain in 34 states, likely seven more and DC and collecting signatures in eight more.   There are two that they will not be on the ballot for - Michigan and Oklahoma.  He is not going to win
Third party candidates of consequence in the last 60 years - more than 5%
  • 1968 George Wallace 9,901,118 13.5% 46 electoral college votes, the last 3rd party candidate to do so
  • 1980 John Anderson 5,719,850  6.19%
  • 1992 Ross Perot 19,743,821 18.91%
  • 1996 Ross Perot 8,085,294 8.40%
I am trying to decide here and I really am coming down for Obama, then Johnson and finally Romney.   I might still change my mind on Romney.  For me the biggest downside of Romney is his party.

Even though Romney has a nutbar for his running mate, I really am not worried about him governing like a right wing ideologue.  You only need to look at how he governed in Massachusetts.  He was a decent Governor and understood how to work with the legislative branch.   Ultimately the Vice-President rarely has real power.

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Has Romney Given Up?

The choice by Mitt Romney of Paul Ryan as the Vice Presidential candidate seems very odd to me.  The VP candidate does not bring much to the table in most elections though tends to bring their home state into the fold.  

Paul Ryan should be able to bring Wisconsin into the Republican column, but that is only 10 electoral college votes, the problem is that he bring a lot more negatives to the table and may end the chances of the Republicans in winning many of the states they simply have to win.

The GOP now has a Mormon and a Catholic on the ticket.  In Canada this would not matter, but in the US it does.   Among the hardcore Evangelical Christians the Mormons are a dangerous misguided cult and the Catholics slavish papists.  Talk about alienating the base of the party.

I see a lot that Ryan has done in the house that would indicate he is much more interested in grandstanding and ideological crusades than actually doing the boring business of governing.   My biggest complaint with him is that he seems to be economically illiterate but acts as if he knows anything about tax policy.  

Running for VP will bring him onto the national stage and make a run for the presidency by him in the future possible    I am more worried about him than Sarah Palin because he might actually get somewhere.

US mismanagement of their government and economy has huge implications for the rest of the world.  If Romney were not pandering to the crazies in the GOP I would have faith that who ever won the 2012 election would not screw the economy.   As it stands, the choice of Paul Ryan says to me that Mitt Romney is giving up on everything that made him the best GOP choice for president to try and pander.

2012 feels like a redux of 2008 for the Republicans.  McCain was a respected and intelligent senator that then abandoned all that to pander to the extreme and chose a crazy woman to be VP.   Romney was a good governor and did much to improve the US economy with Bain Capital, but he seems to be following the McCain 2008 strategy.

In 2008 I was more for McCain than Obama mainly because Barak Obama was very short of any experience to be president but as the election went along I was less and less comfortable with McCain/Palin and finally wanted Obama to win.

In 2012 I went into the election being pro-Obama because has been a good president, certainly better than either of the Bushes and in most ways better than Clinton.   He has impressed me.  I have never warmed to Romney and I doubt that will change now.

Finally, was Paul Ryan Romney's first choice or had he already gone some way down the list till someone finally said Yes?

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Wisconsin Recall Election

I had been meaning to comment on this race for days, but life intervened.   The race certainly gave a reason to listen to 88.5 KPLU instead of CBC Radio One or CFAX in my truck

Yes, the people in Wisconsin managed to get the signatures for the recall but what they forgot is that a million people voted in 2010 for Tom Barrett the Democratic candidate.   These people were already opposed to Scott Walker and would have signed a recall petition.

The polling in the race had shown an average 7 percentage point lead for Walker for the last three weeks.

Candidate                  2010             2012  
Republican Scott Walker 1,128,941 52.3% 1,331,076 53.2%
Democrat Tom Barrett    1,004,303 46.5% 1,158,337 46.3%

I do not understand why the Democrats ran the same candidate, rarely a good decision in politics.  The recall election did see a significant rise in total votes but but both sides gained more or less evenly.


The re-election of Walker certainly sends him the message that his agenda is supported by the people and will likely make life only that much more difficult for the public sector unions in the state.


If you look back over the 34 years in Wisconsin, the state the Republicans have done better than the Democrats when electing governors.  

Year total vote Democrat  Republican Other             
2012 2,503,745  1,158,337 1,331,076
2010 2,158,974  1,004,303 1,128,941
2006 2,159,251  1,139,115   979,427
2002 1,775,349    800,971   734,779  185,455 Libertarian with 10.5%
1998 1,756,014    679,553 1,047,716
1994 1,563,835    482,850 1,051,326
1990 1,379,727    576,280   801,321
1986 1,526,572    705,578   805,090
1982 1,580,090    896,872   662,738
1978 1,500,804    673,813   816,056


Looking at the these numbers, the odds of a recall election bringing in a Democrat would not seem to have been good.


The gubernatorial race result was also held at the same time as four recall elections for Wisconsin State Senators.   The four recalled State Senators were all Republicans and it looks like the Democrats may have won one of those races which would give the Democrats a 17 to 16 majority in the State Senate.   Maybe the real goal of the whole process was to gain control of the State Senate.


After the 2010 election the Republicans had a 19 to 14 majority.  The Democrats gained two seats in recalls last year which left the State Senate at 17 Republicans and 16 Democrats.


By having a majority in the State Senate, the Democrats now have one avenue to current the power of Governor Scott Walker.


Using recall to effectively force early elections is only going to make politics in the US even more expensive. There will be on going campaigns to recall people so that the election can be fought all over again.   The spending in the recall elections has been higher than the spending in the 2010 election cycle.

Thursday, May 31, 2012

If Canada were part of the US what would happen to the Presidential Election?

Angus Reid released a poll today to see where people in Canada stand on the choices for US President.   Obama has a huge lead in Canada but since we are not part of the US, this does not change anything, but if we were how might things look?

In the US the electoral college has 538 members but if you added Canada it would rise to 606 meaning you would need 304 to win, it is 270 now.

Number of Electoral College Votes from Canadian Provinces:
  • 3 PEI, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland
  • 4 Manitoba and Saskatchewan
  • 7 Alberta
  • 8 BC
  • 13 Quebec
  • 20 Ontario
I think you can be certain that everything east of Manitoba would he solidly Democrat which gives them 45 more votes.   The 23 votes in the west would be toss ups.  Based on current Canadian opinion it would be all Democrat, but an amalgamated Canada and US would change the whole election for both countries and pull the Republicans back to the centre.

At the moment the New York Times estimate of the Electoral College is:

Candidate Solid Leading Total Short of 270
Obama      185    32     217    -53
Romney     158    48     206    -64

If we add Canada and assume that Alberta is Romney, Saskatchewan leaning Romney and the other two western provinces are toss ups
Candidate Solid Leading Total Short of 304
Obama      230    32     262    -42
Romney     165    52     217    -87

The addition of Canada makes it easier for a Democrat to win, but does not sew it up for them.   Even if all of the Canadian Electoral College votes went to Obama, he would still be 19 short of winning.   He still needs one of the big toss up states or several of the smaller ones.

The Senate would also look different.   Currently it is 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans.   With Canada that would change to something like 68 Democrats and 52 Republicans, still four Senators short of the 60% needed for the Democrats to stop filibusters.

The House of Representatives would go from 435 to 480.  Currently there are 242 Republicans and 190 Democrats, 218 is the majority.   Adding Canada to that would change it to and  258 Republicans, 213 Democrats and 6 Bloc Quebecois who would likely vote with the Democrats, 241 is the majority

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Santorum Won Iowa!

The vote was close and in the recount it has Santorum winning over Romney by 34 votes.  Took long enough for the final results to come in.

I can not imagine the Republicans would choose someone as unelecteable as Santorum as their presidential nominee, but then again they might.

The remaining major candidates in the race are:

  • Newt Gingrich - endorsed today by Rick Perry as he dropped out
  • Ron Paul
  • Rick Santorum
  • Mitt Romney - endorsed by Jon Huntsman when he dropped out on January 16th

When will the American see sense and realize that only Mitt Romney has any potential of being elected?

Ron Paul is so out of step with the Republicans that I fail to see how he can win.   I also really, really do not like his isolationist stance.  

Newt Gingrich, really?   He is making a come back?  Does he honestly think his stupid antics as speaker of the house in the 1990s will endear him to anyone?   This is the man that shut the US government down because he had a hissy fit and wanted to prove he could do it.    This is a man that was sanctioned for ethical wrong doing will speaker of the house.

Rick Santorum, OMG!   This man does not believe people should have the right to have control over their lives.  He thinks government should legislate on most social issues.   If he were to win, I think we would see the first 538 to 0 election.

Stephen Colbert is looking like a rational choice for the GOP.

At this point I think Barak Obama can feel fairly secure about his re-election.

Monday, January 16, 2012

He was more than doomed to fail....

Today the last major candidate that made any sense in the US Republican primary withdrew from the race.   Jon Huntsman is no longer running for president.

He is young enough that there is no reason why he could not be a serious candidate in 2016.   He is clearly a much better candidate than the lot that are left in the race, bar Fred Karger.

He did endorse Mitt Romney, and I guess Romney is the best choice going.   My concern about Mitt Romney is that he will do as McCain did and pander to the nutbars in the Republican party.   If he governs like he did when he was governor of Massachusetts he would be a decent president.   

Like everyone else that is paying attention, I know the Republican nomination is over, but it is still a fascinating race.   I have subscribed to all the email lists for he candidates and it is interesting to see

Monday, January 9, 2012

The NDP Leadership Race

It is amazing how little interest there is in the NDP leadership race nationally.   The party is choosing the person that is likely to be Prime Minister someday.   I would say that at this time, the odds of the NDP winning the 2019 federal election is fairly high.   2015 is already a write off because the NDP are not ready to be competitive in 250+ ridings and they still have to finish off the rump of the Liberals.   The NDP also needs the 2015 election to get a lot more serious people elected as MPs, historically the brightest and best in the NDP have run provincially in BC, Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Meanwhile south of the border the Republicans are going through the motions to find a sacrificial lamb to through up against Barak Obama.   That race is getting huge amounts coverage even though every rational human knows that only Mitt Romney can win.  

The fundamental difference in how politics works in two countries that are more similar than almost any other pair of countries continues to astonish me.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Is there an sanity in the US Republican Party?

So the Iowa caucuses happened last night and no one managed to do well.

  • Mitt Romney - 24.55% 30,015 votes, likely 13 delegates
  • Rick Santorum - 24.54% 30,007 votes, likely 12 delegates
  • Ron Paul - 21.45% 26,219 votes
  • Newt Gingrich - 13.29% 16,251 votes
  • Rick Perry - 10.31% 12,604 votes
  • Michelle Bachmann - 4.98% 6,073 votes 
  • Jon Huntsman - 0.61% 745 votes
  • The Rest - 0.28% 341 votes

Iowa has a long process between the caucus vote and the actual designation of the delegates.  In theory Ron Paul could get some delegates, but seeing that the support for Romney and Santorum split the state so nicely, they could have all the delegates.

Michelle Bachmann has dropped out of the race, something she have done ages ago because she has no business being in the race.  I assume that her support will flow to Rick Santorum.

Sounds like Rick Perry may also be gone, this is also a good thing as he also had no business in the race.

With the declared support of super delegates, the totals are:

  • Romney - 26
  • Santorum - 13
  • Perry - 3

1144 delegates needed to win.

Can anyone beat Mitt Romney?  I can not see Ron Paul winning the nomination.  Jon Huntsman, no matter how much better he is than the rest of the field, is not a threat to anything.   That leaves Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich as the only competitors to Mitt Romney.

Should through some bizarre total hijacking of the GOP Rick Santorum win the nomination, he will guarantee a Barak Obama win.  

If Newt Gingrich were to win, which I think is a very long shot, we will see the nastiest presidential election in many years.    I can not see how Newt can win against Barak Obama.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

The US primaries make me shake my head

Here is an email sent out today by Jon Huntsman's campaign

Friends,
We have exciting news to share tonight.
A Suffolk University poll just released a few minutes ago shows Governor Huntsman surging in New Hampshire, jumping into third place with 13 percent of the vote.
This poll confirms that Governor Huntsman’s message of restoring trust in Washington, ending bailouts for too-big-to-fail Wall Street banks, and eliminating crony capitalism is resonating with voters who are fed up with politics-as-usual in Washington.
This comes on the heels of a new Wall Street Journal poll that shows Governor Huntsman’s support steadily rising across the nation. The American people are desperately searching for a principled leader who can unite Republicans and Independents to defeat Barack Obama next November. As the L.A. Times noted earlier today, people are now beginning to recognize Jon Huntsman as that leader.
Now we need the resources to defeat Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney.
This evening we are launching a new fundraising push and asking all of our supporters to make an immediate donation of $10, $25, $50 or more to help our campaign reach our goal.
Your immediate donation will help us take advantage of our rising poll numbers and give us the resources we need to set up phone banks, contact voters and distribute campaign literature across New Hampshire. Please click here to help make a difference at this critical moment.
Thank you for your continued support of Governor Huntsman!
Standing proudly with Jon Huntsman,
Matt David
Campaign Manager
Surging into third place with 13%.   I find this sort of hyperbole amusing.   Polling 13% is pathetically low and will get you nowhere.   This really is grasping at straws.  Also one poll is not a surge, especially when he has been polling between 7% and 11.3% for the last few weeks.   The poll was also a very small sample size, only 400.  Finally, his polling elsewhere sucks.

That said, the more I read about Jon Huntsman, the more I am liking him.    This should really be a warning to the Huntsman campaign because I have this tendency not to favour politically mainstream candidates.  I am iconoclastic and like the outsiders, assuming they are sane, smart and open minded.  I end up backing people that lose elections.  

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

How can people in the US take the crazy people seriously?

Today are the US mid term elections and there seems to a strong possibility that some really out there Teaparty backed people will get elected.

Here is just a selection of some of the off the wall things some of them have been saying. Anyone of these statements would be the end of a political career in Canada.

Michelle Bachmann: Republic Congresswoman from Minnesota "Gay marriage is probably the biggest issue that will impact our state and our nation in the last, at least, thirty years. I am not understanding that."
Seriously? Two men or two women being able to marry is the biggest issue for you? That war in Iraq or the recession are smaller issues? Obamacare is less of an issue for her?

Trent Franks Republican Congressman from Arizona on Obama: "He has no place in any station of government and we need to realize that he is an enemy of humanity."
How? How can anyone say that with a straight face ever? There is no way a rational person that has any knowledge of US politics that could believe that. This is coming out of the mouth of a sitting legislator. How does he think this will move the political debate forward on anything.

Glen Urquhart Republican running to win Delaware's Congress seat, he is behind: "The exact phrase 'separation of Church and State' came out of Adolph Hitler's mouth, that's where it comes from. So the next time your liberal friends talk about the separation of Church and State, ask them why they are Nazis."
So Jefferson was a proto Nazi? Beyond the fact that there was no separation of church and state in Nazi Germany, this sort of statement is bizarre given the fact that the US was the source of the idea.

Steve King Republican Congressman from Iowa on Obama winning the election: "The radical Islamists, the al-Qaeda... would be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on Sept. 11 because they would declare victory in this war on terror."
Seriously? The US president that increased the troops fighting the war on terror wins and al-Qaeda will be happy?

Lamar Smith Republican Congressman from Texas: "The greatest threat to America is not necessarily a recession or even another terrorist attack. The greatest threat to America is a liberal media bias."
He can make this statement in a country with Fox News simply speaks to his complete lack of understanding of the media in the US.

It will be very depressing if the wingnut Republicans win today. If they can make these sort of stupid statements, I have no hope they will be able to govern at all. It will suck globally if we have total gridlock in the US government.

My hope is that the rational Republicans will begin to prevail and will seek compromise with the Democrats to get something done. I am not holding out much hope.

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Are the Americans Really that Crazy?

I am utterly shocked at how the US seems to have devolved into insanity during this debate healthcare.

I admit I liked Sarah Palin when she first surfaced in US national politics, but she is clearly WAYYYY out there and I made a mistake in my assessments of her. Her opposition to the health care bill is beyond anything I can understand.

I also have to admit that I admire Obama more than I expected to. My major concern about Obama was his complete lack of executive experience. To get the health care bill passed is an amazing accomplishment. He has also governed in general as a thoughtful leader of the country and not as a partisan small minded moron - eight years of that was enough for anyone.

The health care bill is far from perfect, but it certainly is a dramatic improvement over what the US has now. The cost to the US of all the uninsured is huge for numerous economic reasons. Lack of access to decent health care increased rates of poverty in the US.

The evidence is out there to clearly show that health care in Canada has delivered better outcomes than the US system even though we spend a lot less on health care in Canada. Canadians about 1/2 of the Americans have access to the same type of health care. Some Americans have access to better health care, but the Americans that had access to no health care or bad health care have had measurable outcomes in the overall health of the US.

The over the top response to the health care bill by the Republicans is depressing. Are there no Republicans that see the benefit for this law? Has the whole party take a stupid pill? It may not all be the health care bill.

This piece in the New Yorker suggests that the issue is one of disenfranchisement by the traditional heterosexual white males in Washington.

Being in Canada where almost no one cares if a politician is gay or straight, what their race is or if they are a women, it is hard to understand that there is a backlash in the US to having a black president, a women speaker of the house and a powerful gay congressman.

If there were an opposition in Canada based on race, sexuality or gender, one would expect to see that from the Conservatives. But the Conservatives had people from all three categories run for them in the last election. Canada is a country with very few Jewish people and in the west they are really rare, but we have had a Jewish premier of BC and Alberta, though most people do not know because religion is not an issue in Canada (for the record the premiers were Barrett and Klein)

The TPGBSD (Tea Party Glenn Beck Stupid Disease) that is infecting the US right at epidemic levels is something I can simply not understand. The US Republics are rapidly going to push themselves off into an extremist corner and will be slaughtered in the fall elections.

Yes, at the moment their anger is giving the right a bump, but by November TPGBSD will run its course in the general public and only remain in small pockets where the people reinfect themselves over and over again. Irrational opposition will only make Obama and Pelosi look better and will push the public away from the Republicans.

The Americans are not crazy, they are just suffering from this current illness. It will pass by the fall.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

A Worthwhile Canadian Initiative

This an interesting column in Newsweek from Fareed Zakaria about how much better Canada is doing than the US. Canada will come out of this recession as a global economic tiger.

For a more right wing and ranting view, check out Captain Capitalism. Once again, Canada is doing so much better than the US.

My biggest complaint with GW Bush was the fact that he was a fiscal liberal and spent money like there was no end. I was certain he was pushing the US towards an economic disaster since 2003.

I am stunned at the scope and insane scale of the budget proposed by Obama. The money he is suggesting being spent in the US is beyond what government can meaningfully oversee. Much of the money the US will spend over the next three years is going to get wasted and only leave them much deeper in debt.

My hope is that fiscal sanity continues to prevail in Canada and that the federal government works very hard to move us back to surpluses as quickly as possible.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

The US Election

I am really amazed at how much people are paying attention to this election in the US.

For people in Canada the only thing that matters is if the new government in the US will continue to be protectionist, become more protectionist or the Americans will finally figure out free trade is a good thing.

As time goes by I have more faith that Barak Obama will not be the disaster that I thought he might be, but I remain very afraid the Democratic congress will take it out on the main US trading partner - Canada. Obama is not going to be able to restrain the anti-Canadian forces in the US house and Senate if there is a large Democrat majority. His government will be seek Canadian concessions on trade right away and concessions means less free trade and more benefit to the businesses in the US the government has picked as winners.

The US needs a president that it is socially liberal, economically liberal, and fiscally conservative. Obama is only going to get one of those.

If the US is to stop the current crisis, the government needs to stop borrowing money. Clinton managed to balance the US budget, Bush has recklessly and pointlessly driven the government finances into the ground. The US is going to have balance the budget at some point and that time is going to sooner than people think. When it comes, it is going to be painful.

Realistically the US is looking at a 10 year restructuring of government and the economy - like the UK saw in the 1980s and Canada in the 1990s. By 2018 the average Canadian will have a standard of living 30% to 40% higher than those in the US and in the west it will be 50% to 80% higher.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Leader's Debate

Pointless and irrelevant.

No one did badly enough to suffer, no one did well enough to matter. That means in Canada and the US.