New BC program for first time house buyers is a very good policy decision.

I firmly am convinced that the new BC government for first time house buyers is very good for BC economically and the single best thing that can be done for millennials

Last week the BC government announced a program for first time house buyers in BC in which they can get a no interest matching loan to cover up to 5% or $37,500 of price of the house as a down payment.   I personally think the program is an interesting way to make house ownership an option for millennials.   People opposed to the BC Liberals have come up with a number of reasons this program is a bad idea but I am not convinced of any of them.    

News Release

A major problem in buying the first house at the moment is coming up with the 10% down payment.   Saving the money to manage to get to $50,000 down payment for a $500,000 house will take a young couple a long time because there is not a lot of spare money around to save at that point in their lives.   If they can put aside $5,000 a year it will take them 10 years to get a down payment together.  It is long enough to discourage people from ever trying to get in the housing market, ten years at age 28 is longer than the adult life they have lived.  The government no interest loan changes the money you need to save from $50,000 to $25,000 and that time frame drops to five years.   A five year time frame is one that people can think about in their 20s.

Repayment of the loan starts in five years at which point in almost all cases the ability to cover the repayment is much more manageable, that $25,000 becomes a $104 a month payment.   Remember there has been no interest on this loan but the value of the house has probably risen*.

The program limits support for houses priced up to $750,000 but that is much too expensive for almost all first time house buyers to afford.  A much more realistic price is $500,000 which means a monthly mortgage payment of about $2300 with a 10% down payment.   Most people making use of this program will be using a lot less than the maximum they are in theory allowed to access.  

In the Lower Mainland this means almost all the purchases will be of condos and townhomes and this is a part of the Metro Vancouver real estate market that has not risen unsustainably over the last 18 months.

Making it possible for a lot of younger people to buy houses is good for the BC economy.  A crash in the Metro Vancouver real estate market would cause a major recession in the province.  We need the market to cool and come down but if it falls too fast the whole economy goes down.  .Well timing government intervention like this program should be able to soften or even stop a recession caused by the crash of house prices.   The fall of house prices in the US were the primary reason for the Great Recession.

All residential real estate markets need a constant and steady influx of first time 30 year olds buying.  This has not been happening in Metro Vancouver or Greater Victoria.  Saving the down payment takes too long.   This program will in the short term speed up the decision for many to enter the market.   These new buyers replace people downsizing, moving away or dying..   If the people leaving the market are not replaced there will be to many houses on the market and not enough buyers.   It may sound insane to many people at the moment but the market in Vancouver is already showing signs of not enough first time house buyers.

The biggest complaint I have heard is that the influx of new buyers could be inflationary but in this case that is not likely happen because the market is teetering on a rapid decline,  The short term large influx of new buyers will cushion the market for the next year or two and help stave off a recession.

As a program it actually costs the government very little.   The only cost is administration and the interest lost.   This program will not require new government taxation to pay for it.   This is not a grant but a loan and secured against the house, there is almost no capital risk to the government.    It is a clever way to turn a small cost to government into a huge economic benefit.

 The timing of the program is close to prefect for the larger macro economic needs.

For the millennials, this is a chance to do what previous generations have done and have a significant capital asset.   Delaying getting into the housing market from about 30 to close to 40 will create a whole generation of people who do not have access to the financial resources other generations have had.   Borrowing against the value of a home has many important roles in people's lives.

An example, most people that start up a new business at age around 40 use their primary residence as the security to get the financing they need.  If many fewer people have houses they own there are many fewer people that can be entrepreneurs, we can not afford that as a society.

Another example, a house functions as a family social safety net.   It provides a source of financial resources if things go wrong.   For many families it is a effectively an insurance policy against the unknown.

House ownership creates a stronger middle class.   Everyone talks about supporting the middle class, this program will help large numbers of people aged 25 to 40 get into the middle class.   I know people this age that had resigned themselves to never being able to own a house that are now calculating when they could buy with this program.   It works well for my kids because over the next five to fifteen years they will start to own houses and this is not something anyone expected`

This program is one of the only serious government programs that moves wealth from the older generations to the millennials.   Simple generational fairness alone should be a reason to support this program.

From the political side this is a very smart move the government.   The single big target demographic in this coming election are the millennials.  Trudeau won the federal election only because of them and no knows how they will act in the BC election,  I think this policy will move a large number of them over to supporting the government.  What is good for a winning election does not have to be at odds with good policy.

All in all I think this is program is not only a very good idea but it truly bold and innovative   I do not expect it to be perfect but it can be altered as glitches are seen.  I can not think of the last time government has decided to start this large a new program

* I bought a house at age 33 and in the next seven years it lost 55% of its value.  At 51 I am unlikely to ever own a house again

Yes I was at the BC Liberal Convention - it was well run and good for me to be there

I am back with the BC Liberals again.  I joined them the first time in late 1999 when a friend ask me to run his nomination campaign in the Yale Lillooet riding.   I went to the 2016 convention and I have a number of personal and political observations.

The Political

• This convention was bigger than past BC Liberal ones I went to
• The age of the people at the convention was much younger than I had expected.   At 51 I often still feel young at political events.   At the BC Liberal convention I felt old for the first time.   The representation of millennials was significant
• This is not Gordon Campbell's Liberals.  In the past no serious man would have gone to the convention in anything but a suit.   I arrived in a suit on Friday and I felt overdressed   It was also a much more grass roots feeling event than in the past.   
• The Liberals are better organized than I have ever seen them, frankly better organized than any BC party I have ever seen.   The convention theme was "Team" and it was very much how the event felt.
• The convention was very well organized and the details well though out
• The convention was a very positive event.   People were happy and even energetic.   
• I have never seen as many or as well attended hospitality suites as I did on Friday night

  The Personal

• As you may or may not know I am suffering from severe clinical depression.  And I went to the convention with some anxiety about how I would do because I tend to dislike crowds of people when I do not know a lot of them.   I did not need to worry.
• In general the event was very welcoming for me.  Within in 10 minutes of being there I had run into five people I had not seen in years.   Over the weekend connected with a lot more people than I had expected.
• The very positive atmosphere at the event was very good for me.   No one was talking negatively around me and that helped my mood.  It made me realize I need to not engage with negativity when it comes to politics and simply ignore the angry people online
• The most important thing for me was that I got a lot of positive validation from the people at the convention.   I had a number of people that I really did not know come up to me and ask me how I was doing, how was the depression, how was I after the fire at the old house and more.   I several MLAs and one MP seek me out to meet me in person.  
• Once again dissenting opinions are ok with the BC Liberals if you are expressing yourself rationally   I liked that I could talk to people I disagreed with on issues and feel like we could both hear it each other and find points of commonality

A Confusing NDP Photo

This picture came out yesterday from the NDP to show the party's position on the environment and the economy after some confusing comments from John Horgan about the Kinder Morgan pipeline on Tuesday.

The wording is odd because of how it can be read:

A strong economy means a healthy environment

The way I read the words is that if we have a strong economy we will have a healthy environment.   To me this is the most logical reading of the sentence.

Replace healthy environment with more income or early retirement and read the statement again.   As soon as you do that, it becomes clear the second phrase is intended to derived form or caused by the first.

I am certain this is not what the NDP intended because I asked some of them.   The NDP was trying to saying a strong economy comes from a healthy environment, which ultimately does not have to be true.

The NDP already has a problem with ambiguity because they are refusing to give the public any sense of how they would govern and what their priorities are for the province.   Releasing this ambiguous photo does not help people come to clarity on the NDP

I think what they wanted to say is a strong economy requires a healthy environment, but then again maybe they like the wording not being clear so there is nothing to hold them to?

 

Fundraisng Email from the BC Greens

I thought it would be interesting to post copies of fundraising emails from parties in the 2017 BC Election.

First one is a request from the BC Greens to lease a larger office for the party HQ - an interesting very specific ask that says "we are growing so fast that we need your help to manage the success"

Dear Bernard, We’ve made great strides in the last few months. New staff members, new volunteers, new supporters… Just one problem. Our office has become a sardine box. Today I’m asking you to join 50 other donors to secure a new lease on a bigger office. Every week, our team of staff and volunteers squeeze into tight corners to roll up their sleeves and get to work. It’s my job to set them up for success, but the lack of space around here is really slowing everyone down. Your donation today will give our outstanding team the space they need to succeed on a whole new level. It floors me to see what they accomplish day in and day out. Take Dekan, for example. He’s been volunteering in the office since May. He has 2 young kids, runs a small business, plays in a band, and (in his “spare time”) works on various BC Green volunteer projects—public events, phone banks, data entry, recruiting new team members… He also returns dozens of phone calls every week, making sure you hear from us every time you call. I love that he always has a contagious smile on his face! As of this week he shares a desk with 3 other people who are working just as hard to elect Greens. I can’t wait to tell them you donated so we could move to a bigger office. If you join 50 others by pitching today I can secure a new lease in time for November. Ready make that happen? Here is the link: https://bcgreens.ca/donate Thank you so much, Laura -- Laura Lavin Executive Director BC Green Party P.S. If you become a monthly donor, your donations will set us up for success every single month. It’s the easiest way to support this amazing team. Simply click the option to set up an automatic monthly donation plan, and we’ll take care of the rest.

Donate

Prefer to donate by phone? 1-888-473-3686 Open 9-5 Pacific time Or by cheque: Please make cheques out to "BC Green Party" PO Box 8088 STN Central Victoria BC  V8W 3R8

Early Political Ads in the 2017 BC Election Cycle

I am going to try and look at all the various ads that come out in this election cycle.

Here is an NDP ad from this spring.   Clearly a strong negative campaign against Christy Clark.  This sort ad can work well in suppressing the BC Liberal vote by discouraging their supporters from voting.  It does very little to improve the NDP vote.
The danger of this is approach is that the focus becomes the other party and unless you can control the narrative there is a chance you will do much worse in the election.

Here is BC Liberal ad from August 1st    It is very boring and looks like a bland corporate video, but what it does do well is to put out a positive message about Christy Clark.   This is aimed at people that have supported the BC Liberals in the past and is intended to give them the comfort to vote for the party again.

You want a good ad, this 2012 ad is what people should be looking at.  If you are going to go negative it is best to do it with humour.   Even supporters of the BC Liberals can see the humour in this ad.

Kootenay East - is this a Bill Bennett seat or is it now right of Centre?

I am looking at Kootenay East because I was asked why I had not included it and Cariboo North among the 21 most competitive in the province given the circumstances in 2017 will be very different in these two ridings than the 2013 election.

Kootenay East is an interesting riding to look at because in the last 13 elections since 1966 it has been won by the NDP six times, Liberals four times and Social Credit three times.

Kootenay East Election Results from 1966 to 2013

	Socred/Ref/Unity	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green	others
2013		10252		6023
2009		8404	1612	5844	549
2005		8060		7339	1389
2001	651	10206		3038	1287	718
1996	3718	5887		6398	363	215
1991	5014	3450		7352
1986	7649	539	499	8000
1983	8829	347		8245
1979	6167		975	5350
1975	7915			7223
1972	1615	4267	4169	6065
1969	4267	2604		4282
1966	3070	2123		3605

The election that really stands out is 2013 because the Liberals won it with more votes than the 2001 NDP blow out election.  This I believe is due to the personal popularity of local MLA Bill Bennett.   So what happens now that Bill is retiring?

The riding was historically competitive between the right and left, it was certainly within range of the NDP to win.   Erda Walsh's strong come back in 2005 gave people hope the NDP could win the seat in 2009 but even with the BC Conservative party leader running there the Liberal vote rose and the NDP vote fell.   Bill Bennett's 2009 win is in fact the third largest margin anyone has won by.   The only better margins are Bill's 2001 and 2013 wins.   This very much speaks to this being a strong vote for Bill Bennett

Bill Bennett is known to have a very strong personal following in the riding and has a strong local BC Liberal organization that is loyal to him.   I think the election results bear this out.

So, what happens in 2017?   

Factors at play:

1. The NDP has never managed to win a majority of the votes when they won while the Socreds and Liberals managed to win more than 50% of the vote five times.    This says to me that without some form of third party cutting into the Liberal vote the NDP will have trouble winning - that 3rd party could be a Conservative, Green or strong local independent
2. Bill Bennett will be active in helping the BC Liberal candidate win.   I think a good part of the support for Bill will follow onto the BC Liberal candidate in 2016.
3. The NDP seems to be getting weaker in rural BC.   They have lost ground over the last three elections.   It is very hard to judge how the NDP could do in Kootenay East when I do not have the fainest idea what the party's election strategy is for 2017.
4. In the 11 elections since 1972 only once, 1986, was it not won by the government.

I suspect the BC Liberals will hold this seat but with a reduced majority and there is no danger of the NDP threatening to win the seat.

Digging into the details of this week's poll

There is a lot more detail in the Innovative Research poll that came out yesterday than what is out in the media and I thought I would look at some of the more interesting things I can find

Issues

If we group issues into larger broad categories - take the numbers with a grain of salt because I am using the existing rounded numbers and not the raw results

Economic Issues 33% - more than half of this is affordable housing
Govt programs 19%
Environment Issues 13%
Social Issues 6%

They asked how likely people were to vote for a party which I find an interesting measure because it shows if the support is deep or not.

Here are the results for "Definitely" and "Very Likely" versus "Would Never Vote For" for each party

Party     +    -   net
Liberals 26%  22%  -4
NDP      19%  27%  -8
Greens   14%  28% -14
BCCP     11%  29% -18

As you can see the Liberals enjoy a significant advantage

Looking at the two major parties in a couple of sub groups
      under 35  35-54  over 54
Party     +       +       +
Liberals 25%     24%     28%
NDP      24%     17%     19%

Among younger voters the NDP is very close to the Liberals but still behind as you get to older groups the NDP falls behind

by region
       Van/LM North/Int Van Isle
Party     +       +        +
Liberals 29%     23%      21%
NDP      22%     15%      20%

They also have a table looking at how people said they would vote compared to how likely or they were to support the NDP and Liberals

What this table shows is there someone that is willing to seriously consider the NDP but does not vote for them is more likely to vote for the Liberals than the Greens.

Another thing that stands out is the high result for the BC Conservatives in the Not Very/Would Never category for both parties.   It says to me there is a group of conservatives in BC that hate both the NDP and the Liberals.   

The Liberals have a significantly better number for getting the vote or the people that would seriously consider their party than the NDP does.   That together with the size of the category means the BC Liberals have a much larger safe core pool of support than the NDP.

Now if we look at people that are open to voting for a party, Somewhat likely or better in the poll, here are he results.   This is a good measure of the theoretical ceiling for each party

Party     +   

Liberals 55%   
NDP      46% 
Greens   41%  
BCCP     32%  

This is very bad for the NDP.   For them to win they need to get almost everyone open to voting for them to vote for them.   At the same time the Liberals can achieve a win with about 80%

However you slice it, this is a very bad poll for the NDP.   If the data is a good reflection of reality the NDP has to do something drastic to change the landscape to be able to win.

State of Nominations for the 2017 BC Election

I am quite stunned that it is the summer before the 2017 election and there are very few candidates actually nominated to run in the next provincial election.   If you are not the incumbent it takes a long time to build a campaign team that can give you a reasonable chance of winning given an electorate of about 40,000 voters.

The Greens will announce Andrew Weaver's nomination tomorrow which will be their first one followed by Adam Olsen on Wednesday

I believe independent Vicki Huntington will run again in Delta South but I have not yet seen anything to confirm this.

Among the BC Liberals 26 candidates have been nominated - 21 sitting MLAs and five new candidates, though one of those is Marc Dalton who was an MLA, resigned to run federally and lost.  
2013 we saw 18 of the MLAs elected as Liberals not run again which is why we going to see a much smaller number or retirements this time.  As of this time four Liberal MLAs are not running again.

I can only find evidence of a few nominations underway for the NDP with only Jagrup Brar being nominated so far.   I can not find any place on the NDP website showing who the candidates are.   There is no place where they highlight the team for 2017.

Three NDP MLAs have stated they will not run again.  Among the remaining 32 MLAs many of them have said they are running again but I can not find a clear list of who has stated they are running again and who has yet to declare.

In the last three elections the NDP had a lot of candidates nominated by this point in the election cycle.   The party needs to pick up a net of nine seats to get to government.   To have a chance of picking up nine seats the party needs to seriously try in about 20 ridings that it does not currently hold.   The NDP seems to be leaving things late and I can not figure out the strategy behind that.

Half a million extra Millennials voted in 2015, what will they do in 2017?

Close to an 500,000 extra people voted in BC voted in the 2015 federal election, this is the most dramatic rise in voter turnout that we have seen in BC.  Almost all these people were Millennials and they overwhelmingly voted for Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.  What will they do in the 2017 BC election?

Total vote in BC Federal and Provincial elections from 1991 to 2015

Once someone has voted once the chances of them voting again is likely higher than otherwise.    The fact they voted in the 2015 federal election means they are going to open to voting in the BC election but how will they vote?

Most of these people voted for the federal Liberals and did not choose the NDP, Greens or Conservatives.   This is important to keep in mind because if the primary goal was to get rid of Conservatives, in almost all cases in BC the voters should have supported New Democrat candidates.   Something else was going on to get all these Millennials to vote.   What drove these people to vote matters a lot when considering how they may act in 2017.

There are four options possible in the 2017 election:

1) Some are likely to vote to Liberal because the name is the same and the policies are similar

2) Some are likely to vote Green because it is something different

3) Some are likely to vote NDP because they have to get Christy Clark out.

4) Some will not vote

Voting Liberal

As much as people on the left want to say Christy Clark and the BC Liberals are some sort of far right Harperesque type of political party this is simply not the case.   The policies of the BC Liberals are broadly the same as the federal party.   If the federal policies are acceptable so then should the BC Liberal ones.  The problem the BC Liberals have is that there is no serious party to the right of them.

The parties share a common brand name, this does matter.  Some people will vote for the BC Liberals because they voted for the federal Liberals.

When it comes to age of the leader, Trudeau and Clark are only six years apart in age.   The difference is that Trudeau has a young rock star image and Clark does not.

Trudeau was not government whereas the BC Liberals have been in power since 2001.   Being a long term government is not likely to work in the BC Liberals favour.

What is comes down to is can the BC Liberals market themselves to Millennials?   

My estimate is that 100,000 to 200,000 will for the BC Liberals

Voting Green

The BC Greens are working hard to attract the people that voted Liberal in 2015 to vote Green provincially.  The BC Greens could sell the Millennials on the party being something different

Much depends on how effective the Greens are getting their message out and convincing people beyond Vancouver Island that the party is a serious contender elsewhere.    I am not convinced this will happen.

My estimate is 50,000 to 150,000 will vote Green

Voting NDP

In BC the only logical choice to defeat the existing Liberal government is the NDP.   If there is a get rid of Clark movement the NDP should benefit.

Most of the people that voted NDP provincially in 2005, 2009 and 2013 also voted for the NDP federally in 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2013.     There is no strong correlation in the last 15 years of people voting Liberal federally and NDP provincially.   

I have trouble seeing the NDP getting a lot of Millennial support because the core values of many  Millennials do not fit well with the old school values of the NDP.   Millennials seem to be somewhat more libertarian at heart and generally do not expect the government to be an active beneficial part of their life.  The NDP is not resonating with Millennials federally or provincially.

My estimate is that the NDP will get 50,000 to 100,000 Millennial votes.

Not voting

Trudeau could be a one off boost to voter numbers and they will not vote in 2017

My estimate is that 150,000 to 250,000 will not vote

Impact on the Election

What is the upshot of all this?   My best estimate is that the Millennials will make it harder for the NDP to win the election but it is all very much unclear.  

If a party can find a message that resonates with the Millennials it becomes possible for the BC Liberals or the NDP to comfortably win the election.  For the Greens, even if they manage to bring in almost all the new votes, the problem is that these votes are too evenly distributed across BC.   Even with 600,000 votes the Greens could end up only winning 4 to 10 seats.

The reality is that the Millennials are a factor in this election and at this time no one has a clear strategy to get their vote.

The BC Conservatives have FOUR candidates for leader

For such a long time it looked like no one was going to step forward to bc leader of the BC Conservatives, but now after the close of nominations and vetting by the party there are four candidates

• Dan Brooks - the leader that resigned in January of this year.  I can not find any online presences for his campaign.
• Chloé Ellis -  She is still in her 20s, though that does not mean she is any less qualified to be leader than the guys running.  Her website the best of the lot but still nothing much there.
• Konrad Pimiskern - It is hard to get past the fact he is using webpage that looks like it was made in 1999.  His website tells me nothing
• Jay Cross - a PhD statistician who seems to mainly focus on the lack of fundraising by the BC Conservatives.   No details of how this would happen or any details on how he would act as leader.

Who should the Conservatives choose?  

Jay Cross and Konrad Pimiskern do not strike me as people that have any skills to a function as a useful leader.   I really do not get why either one is running.

Dan Brooks will have to overcome resigning and then wanting to come back.   I have also been told that the Brooks era of the party was not exactly the most open organization, various good people were frozen.  Some of these people have political experience and are very ethical conservatives.   If the party chooses him it is sort of like an admission that 2016 was not important for the party.  Dan Brooks would be a signal to the media the party is not serious.

This more or less leaves Chloé Ellis.   I know very little about her.  She ran for the federal Conservatives in 2015 in the riding of New Westminster Burnaby.  Win or lose she will benefit simply by running and building up a following.   She is also the only candidate for which I know the names of anyone that is a supporter.

Nelson Creston - a possible battle ground riding in 2017

On the surface Nelson Creston looks like a safe NDP riding but that is not the whole picture.    This is an area where the Greens have a reasonable amount of support and could threaten to win the seat in 2017

In every election other than 2009 the Green support in Nelson Creston we much better than
overall provincial level of support for the party

In 1986 the NDP had lost the seat to Social Credit

Howard Dirks, the Socred MLA 1986-91 now ran as a Liberal and his support remained static from 1991
The 1996 result was by far the best results for any Green in Canada to date

Corky Evans lost but in relative terms he did not much better than most of the NDP in 2001
The Greens put a lot of energy into trying to get Collen McCrory elected

Best 2005 come back by a New Democrat

Greens put very little effort into the election

Greens managed to break 20% but spent a lot less money than the NDP or the Liberals
What happens in 2017 if they spend what they are allowed?

Current boundaries of the riding

BC Election 2017: Looking at the Okanagan Shuswap

I want to look at all the regions of the province over the next few months as a baseline of what is going on before the campaign really gets underway.

In this region four the the MLAs were elected in 2013 for the first time, two in 2009 and Christy Clark was elected in a by-election in Westside Kelowna in 2013.   Since 1996 the Liberals have won every seat in this region and I do not expect this to change in 2017.


Regional Results from 1991-2013
2013 Liberals 51.1% NDP 32.0% Cons     10.1% Greens  4.6%
2009 Liberals 42.4% NDP 31.9% Cons     11.9% Greens 11.9%
2005 Liberals 47.1% NDP 36.5% Greens    8.1% Cons    4.0%
2001 Liberals 63.1% NDP 15.1% Greens    9.8% UNity   8.2%
1996 Liberals 40.3% NDP 29.7% Reform   16.4% PDA    10.6%
1991 Socred   34.1% NDP 32.8% Liberals 31.8%
2009 and 2013 the Liberals won 7, 1996 to 2005 the Liberals won 6, 1991 NDP won 3, Socreds won 2 and Liberals 1

Riding Results for any candidate that got more than 10% of the vote
Boundary Similkameen - Linda Larson MLA elected in 2013 for the first time
2013 Liberals 46.6% NDP    39.0%
2013 Liberals 46.0% NDP    39.4% redist to 2017 boundaries
2009 Liberals 37.5% NDP    32.9% Cons     20.2%
1996 Liberals 38.9% NDP    38.2% Reform   15.4%
1991 NDP      48.8% Socred 25.8% Liberals 25.0%
2001 and 2005 riding did not exist

Penticton - Dan Ashton MLA elected in 2013 for the first time
2013 Liberals 45.4% NDP      40.3%
2009 Liberals 44.0% NDP      31.2% Greens 15.7%
As Penticton Okanagan Valley
2005 Liberals 50.2% NDP      37.5%
2001 Liberals 67.2% NDP      15.6% Greens 14.2%
as Okanagan Penticton
1996 Liberals 42.8% NDP      37.0% Reform 12.0%
1991 NDP      34.8% Liberals 32.9% Socred 30.5%

Kelowna West (formerly Westside Kelowna) - Christy Clark MLA - elected in a 2013 by -election
2013 by Liberals 62.7% NDP 29.7%
2013    Liberals 58.1% NDP 30.8% Cons 11.1%
2009    Liberals 53.3% NDP 29.2%
As Okanagan Westside
2005    Liberals 54.4% NDP 30.8% Green 10.1%
2001    Liberals 68.1% NDP 15.2%
before 2001 there was no riding like this

Kelowna Mission - Steve Thomson MLA first elected in 2009
2013 Liberals 56.9% NDP 25.8% Cons  12.7%
2009 Liberals 53.9% NDP 26.1% Cons  11.9%
2005 Liberals 53.7% NDP 31.8% Green 12.9%
2001 Liberals 64.6% NDP 12.9% Green 10.9%
There was no comparable riding before 2001

Kelowna Lake Country - Norm Letnik MLA first elected in 2009
2013 Liberals 56.8% NDP 24.8% Cons  11.0%
2009 Liberals 52.1% NDP 26.6% Cons  11.4%
2005 Liberals 50.4% NDP 30.4% Green 10.5%
2001 Liberals 63.2% NDP 13.9% Green 11.7%
no equivalent riding existed before 2001

Vernon Monashee - Eric Foster MLA first elected in 2013
2013 Liberals 46.3% NDP 34.2% Cons     11.7%
2009 Liberals 37.3% NDP 31.8% Green    16.7%
2005 Liberals 43.2% NDP 33.6% Cons     11.6%
2001 Liberals 56.5% NDP 14.4% Unity    13.1%
1996 Liberals 39.1% NDP 30.0% Reform   21.4%
1991 Scored   38.0% NDP 34.0% Liberals 26.7%

Shuswap - Greg Kyllo MLA first elected in 2013
2013 Liberals 47.9% NDP      29.6% Cons   12.9%
2009 Liberals 46.6% NDP      30.5% Green  11.0% Cons  10.3%
2005 Liberals 47.0% NDP      35.3%
2001 Liberals 56.3% NDP      16.5% Unity  12.4% Green 10.5%
1996 Liberals 34.6% NDP      31.4% Reform 22.6%
1991 NDP      35.5% Liberals 33.6% Socred 28.9%

Could the NDP run a focused campaign in 2016 and pick up just enough seats to win?

In 1996 the NDP managed to have a focused campaign to hold enough seats to stay in power. They needed 38 seats and won 39.



Top 13 NDP Target Seats
4 lost to BC Liberals in 2013
Fraser Nicola
Delta North
Surrey Fleetwood
Port Moody Coquitlam
(the NDP also lost Chilliwack Hope to the Liberals, but that was with a victory of almost 20pp)

(pp= precentage points)
9 where NDP was within 10pp
Penticton
Boundary Similkameen
Maple Rigde MIssion 
Maple Ridge Pitt Meadows
Surrey Guildford
Burnaby North
Vancouver Fraserview
North Vancouver Lonsdale
Courtenay Comox

Top 10 Liberal Target Seats
4 lost to the NDP
Burnaby Lougheed
Vancouver Point Grey
Vancouer Fairview
Saanich North and the Islands

6 where Liberals within 10pp
Skeena
North Island
Nanaimo 
Cowichan Valley
Coquitlam Millardville
Burnaby Deer Lake
Burnaby Lougheed

Top 6 Green Target Seats and the margin they need to overcome
Saanich North and the Islands - 1.2pp
Victoria Beacon HIll - 15pp
Cowichan Valley - 21pp
Esquimalt Metchosin - 27pp
Nelson Creston - 30pp
Victoria Swan Lake - 31pp

Finally a fix for political junkies in BC - 2 new polls

Hi, my name is Bernard and I am a political junkie.   I get my fix from election days and polls.   As much as a I know these polls are not real proper data, it is all I have to go on.   It has been six months since I last had a BC poll hit.  

Here are the results from Ipsos and Insights West

Party   All of BC   Metro Van   Van Isle    Rest of BC
       Ipsos Insit Ipsos Insit Ipsos Insit Ipsos Insit
Liberal 42    34    32    37    32    21    44    35
NDP     36    40    39    39    39    52    28    35
Green   10    14     6    13    25    22     9    13
Cons    11    10    10     9     4     5    18    18
Other    1     2     1     2     0     0     2     1

So what can we make of these numbers?    First, there is no clear leader, there is a race.   Second, the Greens have a measurable strength on Vancouver Island, high enough that more seats are a realistic target.  Third, the moribund BC Conservatives have reasonable strength in the interior and north.

The 10% or so support for the BC Conservatives says to me there is a desire by a part of the BC population for an actual right wing party.   This number is in my opinion people parking their support.    The party has no leader, no media presence and no obvious grass roots organization but it is polling at 10%.  

The NDP has good enough numbers that it could win the next election but the polls are not showing the sort of monster lead like in the run up to the 2013 election.    I have to wonder if it is seen as a race if more people will come out and vote for the NDP?