Monday, September 22, 2008

Best Site for Polling Averages

I highly recommend Mark Pickup's Polling Observatory. He is doing a much better job of taking the polling results that are coming out and averaging them, taking into account house bias and other things to get what look to be the best measure of national political party support in Canada.

He does a good job of correcting for issues that happened in the polling in 2006.

At the moment his numbers give us:

Conservatives - 38.3%
Liberals - 27.6%
NDP - 15.2%
Greens - 8.7%
Bloc - 8.1%

I will look at this and see how I think this plays out for seats at the moment and where I think it is headed. His graph shows a consistent gentle decline for the Liberals since the start of the campaign. This is matched by small increases for the NDP, Conservatives and Greens.

If the Liberal decline is a trend, which I think it is, I see them finishing the election at 23% to 25% of the vote. I see the Conservatives at 39.5%, NDP at 16% and the Greens at 9.5%

The current state and the trend are really bad for the Liberals, but it is also not good for the NDP. The NDP is still behind where they finished in 2006.

I still see the result on October 14th being a large Conservative majority. Details on why later today
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