On the news this morning there was a report that West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country MP Blair Wilson will be joining the Greens. If this really is the case, he then becomes the first Green MP.
I would personally caution the Greens against accepting him because he does come with some taint. He was asked to leave the Liberal caucus because of some financial dealings and issues that were raised. He asked to be readmitted, but the Liberals would not take him back, this says something.
I can see the allure to the Greens of accpeting him because this would mean they are a 'major' party because they have an MP and Elizabeth May should them be allowed to be in the debate. But there are some major down sides to this.
1) the debate does not matter - no one in Canada cares about the debate and no one changes their mind because of it.
2) Having your first MP for a few weeks and then losing him in the general election does not look good.
3) You got to wonder what is wrong with the guy if the Liberals will not take - this is the party of the sponsorship scandal and a long tradition about being veryyyyy flexible when it comes to accepting questionable people into the party. They do not want him. They will take Garth Turner, but not him.
4) He was not elected as a Green and therefore has no mandate to be a Green MP.
5) This just looks like usual politics and I thought that is something the Greens were trying to get beyond.
I will be seeing Elizabeth May this evening here in Victoria and I will be suggesting to her that she not accept him.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Friday, August 29, 2008
Sarah Palin
This was an inspired choice by McCain. Not only is she youngish and a woman, she has more experience that Obama with respect to the executive arm of government. The Democrats can not attack her for lack of experience because it will reflect badly on Obama because he is inexperienced and it is attacking the first woman with a real chance to be VP.
McCain also chose someone that knows how to campaign and has been through some killer races she was not supposed to win. And she was always the candidate on the side of ethics, openness and transparency.
He has also chosen someone with a proven track record as a straight shooter and independent. Whereas Biden exudes inside the beltway, Palin is the outsider willing to talk truth to power. She is a radical in American politics and she is a perfect fit for the middle American.
A woman that is a member of the NRA because she is a hunter. A woman that is a fitness advocate and loves the outdoors. In many ways she is a female Teddy Rosevelt. McCain made this choice to tweak the noses of the Republican establishment, no one else on the Republican side would have made this choice.
McCain has also set her up as the clear frontrunner for the nomination in 2012 if they lose or McCain only does one term. I suspect McCain will do one term and let people know this early on. By doing that he can push his agenda and not care about re-election.
McCain also chose someone that knows how to campaign and has been through some killer races she was not supposed to win. And she was always the candidate on the side of ethics, openness and transparency.
He has also chosen someone with a proven track record as a straight shooter and independent. Whereas Biden exudes inside the beltway, Palin is the outsider willing to talk truth to power. She is a radical in American politics and she is a perfect fit for the middle American.
A woman that is a member of the NRA because she is a hunter. A woman that is a fitness advocate and loves the outdoors. In many ways she is a female Teddy Rosevelt. McCain made this choice to tweak the noses of the Republican establishment, no one else on the Republican side would have made this choice.
McCain has also set her up as the clear frontrunner for the nomination in 2012 if they lose or McCain only does one term. I suspect McCain will do one term and let people know this early on. By doing that he can push his agenda and not care about re-election.
New Federal Polls - New Seat Projection
Nanos and Harris Decima both have new polls out. Both polls surveyed about 1000 people meaning the regional break out numbers are suspect.
The the only Nanos regional numbers that are useful for the model are those from Quebec and Ontario. The Quebec numbers indicate a continued decline for the BQ, but more strength for the Liberals. The Ontario numbers show more NDP and Liberal strength.
Plugging these new numbers in we get the folllowing:
The the only Nanos regional numbers that are useful for the model are those from Quebec and Ontario. The Quebec numbers indicate a continued decline for the BQ, but more strength for the Liberals. The Ontario numbers show more NDP and Liberal strength.
Plugging these new numbers in we get the folllowing:
- Conservatives 139
- Liberals 112
- BQ 36
- NDP 20
- Ind 1
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Interesting piece in the Globe by Tom Flanagan
I found this article today - I normally never read the Globe as they are not really on the ball with any issues in Canada outside of the golden horseshoe. His analysis goes much further than my thinking had been going on the issue.
Election preditions on August 28
I was not planning on updating the seat projections, but I had to use the latest CROP data in Quebec. Things are much worse for the BQ than I thought. I believe that there is a significant danger of the Liberal vote being squeezed and the Conservatives rapidly gaining seats in Quebec. If as little as 10% of Liberals from 2006 move to the leading federal party, Harper could gain a national majority
Adding the CROP data in gives us the following result:
The federal Liberals can not afford an election at this time. The party is in debt, they are not managing to raise the money they need - only raising what the NDP has been able to. Without a big campaign, the party is in trouble. At this time it is unclear if the party can remain competitive in more than 150 ridings. To put it in other terms, there is no possible way that the Liberals can win even a bare majority in the coming election.
The NDP will have roughly the same resources as the Liberals in the election, but will only have to focus on 50 or 60 ridings, one third of what the Liberals have to focus on at a minimum.
Even worse for the Liberals is that of the top 50 ridings for the NDP, ones they hold or have a chance, the Liberals hold 11 of them and are the main rival in 25 more. Almost one in four ridings where the Liberals need to win they are battling the NDP. For the NDP it is almost three quarters of their seats. It is inevitable that the NDP and Liberals should fight and fight hard
In contrast, the Conservatives are competitive in over 200 ridings, 127 of them which they hold. The party also has more money in the back and is better prepared for the election.
While there is a reasonable chance that the election result will be another minority government, but the campaign will be very different. The Liberals, BQ and NDP will be doing a lot of defence of traditional strong territories and effectively ceding a 125 seat advantage to the Conservatives. This simple reality will be that Harper will be on the offensive with a majority in sight.
The discussion above will be working its way into the modelling.
Adding the CROP data in gives us the following result:
- Conservatives 145
- Liberals 108
- BQ 36
- NDP 19
- Ind 1
The federal Liberals can not afford an election at this time. The party is in debt, they are not managing to raise the money they need - only raising what the NDP has been able to. Without a big campaign, the party is in trouble. At this time it is unclear if the party can remain competitive in more than 150 ridings. To put it in other terms, there is no possible way that the Liberals can win even a bare majority in the coming election.
The NDP will have roughly the same resources as the Liberals in the election, but will only have to focus on 50 or 60 ridings, one third of what the Liberals have to focus on at a minimum.
Even worse for the Liberals is that of the top 50 ridings for the NDP, ones they hold or have a chance, the Liberals hold 11 of them and are the main rival in 25 more. Almost one in four ridings where the Liberals need to win they are battling the NDP. For the NDP it is almost three quarters of their seats. It is inevitable that the NDP and Liberals should fight and fight hard
In contrast, the Conservatives are competitive in over 200 ridings, 127 of them which they hold. The party also has more money in the back and is better prepared for the election.
While there is a reasonable chance that the election result will be another minority government, but the campaign will be very different. The Liberals, BQ and NDP will be doing a lot of defence of traditional strong territories and effectively ceding a 125 seat advantage to the Conservatives. This simple reality will be that Harper will be on the offensive with a majority in sight.
The discussion above will be working its way into the modelling.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Seat projections for August 27 2008
Ipsos and Harris Decima have some recent polling numbers to work with. They basically seem to cancel each other out leaving us with a new result of
The biggest changes are in Quebec where the BQ numbers are not looking good. At the moment it is a toss up who will gain the most seats but the model gives more to the Liberals than the Conservatives. As long as the Liberals and Conservatives are close, the BQ can win a lot of tight races.
In BC, the numbers for the NDP do not look good and there is no indication that the Liberals have any strength outside of the most urban parts of BC. At the moment the model only reduces the NDP to five seats from BC, but this could fall further if there is any consistency in the bad polling numbers for them.
The model will use data from the UBC ESM once it is up and running.
- Conservatives 139
- Liberals 109
- Bloc 41
- NDP 19
- Ind 1
The biggest changes are in Quebec where the BQ numbers are not looking good. At the moment it is a toss up who will gain the most seats but the model gives more to the Liberals than the Conservatives. As long as the Liberals and Conservatives are close, the BQ can win a lot of tight races.
In BC, the numbers for the NDP do not look good and there is no indication that the Liberals have any strength outside of the most urban parts of BC. At the moment the model only reduces the NDP to five seats from BC, but this could fall further if there is any consistency in the bad polling numbers for them.
The model will use data from the UBC ESM once it is up and running.
UBC ESM to open soon
Hello Bernard,
Tom Ross and I are in the process of opening the UBC-ESM again, as an October election looks almost certain. I came across an e-mail that you seem to have sent me (http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.com/2008/08/time-for-ubc-election-stock-market-to.html), which unfortunately never reached me. I just stumbled across your post when I was looking around the web for things to link to on our new http://esm.ubc.ca/CA08/index.php home page for the 2008 UBC-ESM. I'm puzzled as to why your e-mail never reached me, but I suspect the university's new spam filter has something do with it. The esm2006@esm.ubc.ca address is defunct, and we will have a new address esm2008@esm.ubc.ca starting next week. For now, you can reach me at werner@sauder.ubc.ca
Technically, the market will be ready soon, but we still need to get the ethics approval from the powers-that-be. This may take a couple of days. We hope that we will be ready to open the market if, as many expect, an election is called next week.
I've been away for a year on sabbatical until mid July, and my family and I are just settling back into life in Vancouver and UBC.
I trust we can count on you as a trader!
Best regards, - Werner
Tom Ross and I are in the process of opening the UBC-ESM again, as an October election looks almost certain. I came across an e-mail that you seem to have sent me (http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.com/2008/08/time-for-ubc-election-stock-market-to.html), which unfortunately never reached me. I just stumbled across your post when I was looking around the web for things to link to on our new http://esm.ubc.ca/CA08/index.php home page for the 2008 UBC-ESM. I'm puzzled as to why your e-mail never reached me, but I suspect the university's new spam filter has something do with it. The esm2006@esm.ubc.ca address is defunct, and we will have a new address esm2008@esm.ubc.ca starting next week. For now, you can reach me at werner@sauder.ubc.ca
Technically, the market will be ready soon, but we still need to get the ethics approval from the powers-that-be. This may take a couple of days. We hope that we will be ready to open the market if, as many expect, an election is called next week.
I've been away for a year on sabbatical until mid July, and my family and I are just settling back into life in Vancouver and UBC.
I trust we can count on you as a trader!
Best regards, - Werner
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Fall Federal Election
I am not thrilled at the idea of a federal election because I do not see much change coming from it.
I will be posting my estimates of the seat distribution I come up with using the modeling I have set up on my computer. The factors I take into account are the following
As I can quantify other aspects of the election, I will.
Based on what I have outlined above, the result I would expect at this time is as follows
This really does not leave us any better off than where we are now.
I am not sure what the core election issue will be, but I am certain that if the carbon tax is the issue, this will harm the Liberals in suburban Canada. BC is Canada's most environmental province and here we have the NDP condemning the Liberal carbon tax. I am not sure how this will play out in the election, but I think this could push a lot of green voters away from the NDP to the Greens and the Liberals.
Senate Reform - arguing against voting for our representative is an almost impossible task to sell to most of the public. The Liberals have painted themselves into a corner on the issue and could alienate a lot of people who hold traditional Canadian values of fairness.
The Conservatives also have the advantage that they have upper hand on economic issues and as times get bad, people want a party that will be able to guide the economy the best.
The NDP meanwhile is going to spending all its meager resources defending the 30 seats they hold at the moment. The NDP is only competitive in less than 50 ridings in the country and they hold 30 of them. If there is any tide against them, they lose seats.
More in the weeks to come.
I will be posting my estimates of the seat distribution I come up with using the modeling I have set up on my computer. The factors I take into account are the following
- Party past results
- Current polling numbers - though weighting them based on time, size and pollster accuracy.
- Party readiness for an election
As I can quantify other aspects of the election, I will.
Based on what I have outlined above, the result I would expect at this time is as follows
- Conservatives - 135
- Liberals - 104
- NDP - 23
- BQ - 45
- Ind - 1
This really does not leave us any better off than where we are now.
I am not sure what the core election issue will be, but I am certain that if the carbon tax is the issue, this will harm the Liberals in suburban Canada. BC is Canada's most environmental province and here we have the NDP condemning the Liberal carbon tax. I am not sure how this will play out in the election, but I think this could push a lot of green voters away from the NDP to the Greens and the Liberals.
Senate Reform - arguing against voting for our representative is an almost impossible task to sell to most of the public. The Liberals have painted themselves into a corner on the issue and could alienate a lot of people who hold traditional Canadian values of fairness.
The Conservatives also have the advantage that they have upper hand on economic issues and as times get bad, people want a party that will be able to guide the economy the best.
The NDP meanwhile is going to spending all its meager resources defending the 30 seats they hold at the moment. The NDP is only competitive in less than 50 ridings in the country and they hold 30 of them. If there is any tide against them, they lose seats.
More in the weeks to come.
Monday, August 25, 2008
Kanakos seeks nod as provincial candidate
I hope Jeannie gets the nomination and wins in the election. She would be an important and strong addition to the legislature. I was very disappointed when she did win last time.
__________________________First-term municipal councillor announces she's going for B.C. Liberal nomination in the riding of Delta North
The Delta Optimist
Published: Saturday, August 23, 2008Delta Coun. Jeannie Kanakos announced this week that she will take another stab at provincial politics.
Kanakos announced Tuesday that she is seeking the B.C. Liberal nomination in Delta North.
"What I have learned while serving on council for the past three years is how important it is for North Delta to have a strong voice in Victoria," she said. "The residents of North Delta have not had representation and it shows."
Kanakos was the Liberal candidate in the riding in 2005. She lost the seat to NDP candidate, and current MLA, Guy Gentner by less than 1,000 votes.
She was elected to Delta council later in 2005.
Kanakos said the decision to put her name forward for the Liberal candidacy was not made quickly.
"I did a fair amount of soul searching," she said. "I did speak to many community leaders who did encourage me to run.
"I love my community here in North Delta and I want to bring more attention to the issues facing North Delta to the cabinet table and the provincial legislature."
Kanakos is not the only person seeking the nomination as another North Delta politico hopeful has put his name forward.
Anyone wishing to seek the candidate's spot in a riding must be a Liberal member for at least 41 days prior to the nomination meeting.
The next provincial election will be held on May 12, 2009.
Chad Pederson, spokesperson for the Liberal Party of B.C., said the party has to hold 85 candidate selection meetings across the province before next spring's election.
In some ridings that process has already taken place, however no meeting date has been set yet for Delta North.
Before the process can get under way in any riding, sitting MLAs have to make their intentions known and then the party will discuss with the local riding associations when the nomination meetings will be held. However, the party will make the final decision.
He said the meetings could be held any time in the summer, fall or even the spring.
The next municipal election is slated for Nov. 15.
As for what her decision will mean for her future in municipal politics, Kanakos said her sole focus for the time being is winning the nomination.
"My job right now is to seek the nomination for the B.C. Liberals," she said.
© The Delta Optimist 2008
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