Friday, February 13, 2009

A more detailed prediction of the 2009 election

Here is what I see happening at the moment:

  • Liberals - 865 000 votes and 63 seats - 47%
  • NDP - 680 000 votes and 21 seats -37%
  • Greens - 235 000 votes and 0 seats - 13%
  • Others - 60 000 votes and 1 seat

This is based on the new ridings, the trends I can see in polls in the province and the application of the idea of the impact of non voters to the process.

I see the NDP winning seven of their seats by less than 5%, the Liberals 14 and Vicki Huntingdon win hers by less than 5%. This is 22 ridings that are close.

The range I see possible for the parties:

  • Liberals - 53 to 69
  • NDP - 16 to 31
  • Ind - 0 to 1
  • Greens - 0 to 1

I see no scope for an NDP win in this election.
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