Wednesday, November 3, 2010

When does the NDP hold their leadership race?

It would seem to be obvious now that Carole James will be gone as NDP leader before the next election, the question is when and how the NDP times their leadership race.  

It looks like there will be a new Liberal leader sometime in the spring of 2011.   If the NDP waits till then to see who they would be facing, this would mean they would be holding their leadership convention in the late fall of 2011.  This would seem to allow for enough time for the new NDP leader to make their mark in the 18 months in the run up to the election.  

So when does Carole James announce she is stepping down?  During the Liberal leadership race?   Likely not the best timing as it would mean people would have to declare before knowing who the Liberal leader would be.   My best guess is that she will announce her resignation in early June 2011 with a convention to be held in late November of 2011.

What this effectively means that the people running for the NDP leadership will be campaigning for a year with much of that time in secret.   I am not sure what sort of an impact this will have on the parliamentary caucus, but it should improve membership.   Given the low NDP membership at the moment, it would not be a hard task for an early but well organized campaign team to start taking over constituency associations.   Signing up 4000 to 5000 people in specific ridings would give the team the control of 50 or more associations.

The first sign that there is something going on will be that the NDP membership is rising and some CAs have upset people because their CA has been 'hijacked'
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