Thursday, April 14, 2011

Prediction of the Election

The debates have come and gone and I do not see that they have had much impact on the election.

As to the campaigns, no one is having a great campaign and saying or doing anything to resonate with the public.   

The polls seem to indicate the Conservatives and Liberals are up nationally and in Ontario.   The NDP seems to be down nationally buy up in Quebec.   The Bloc polling numbers are down nationally but holding in Quebec - I am not sure how to reconcile that.

All the candidates are in place now.

So here is my attempt at prediction based on being half way through the campaign

  • Prov   Cons   Libs   NDP   Bloc   Oth
  • North   1      1      1
  • Nfld    1      5      1
  • NS      4      5      2
  • PEI     1      3
  • NB      7      2      1
  • Que    10     16      3    45     1
  • Ont    56     43     14
  • Man    10      2      2
  • Sask   12      1      1
  • Alta   28
  • BC     24      3      9
  • TOTAL 148     81     33    45     1
Some notes:
I figure the NDP will either win Edmonton Strathcona or one of the two Saskatchewan seats, I am hedging on a seat in Saskatchewan, but in the overall number the result is one NDP seat.

I am certain Winnipeg North will be held by the Liberals because of their candidate, betting against Kevon Lamoureux is not a good bet.

I am only 75% certain of my Ontario numbers, I am working hard to get my confidence higher.

I am 60% confident in my Quebec numbers, I know the Bloc looks low I am not entirely certain of that.   I am out of my depth in Quebec and I doubt I will get enough detailed knowledge to make a better prediction.

In Atlantic Canada I expect half a dozen seats to do down to the wire on election night.  I am splitting those seats three for the Conservatives and three for the Liberals at the moment.   

BC I am in an odd situation, my statistical analysis gives the NDP  and Liberals one more seat and the Conservatives lose two, but based on who I think is leading I get the numbers above.  I expect several seats to be very close on election night.

I will be doing a more detailed analysis of ridings in Ontario over the next 24 hours, this may change things.
Post a Comment