Thursday, June 23, 2011

CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll out

This not a large poll, 1211 people contacted, 983 saying they were committed voters.    The bell curve on the margin of error is flatter than I like with a +-3.1% for a 95% confidence level.

Headline Results

  • Conservatives 41.8% +2.2 from election
  • NDP 28.0% -2.6 
  • Liberals 22.8% +3.4 
  • Greens 3.7% -0.2
  • Bloc 3.4% -2.6

This poll shows a net shift back to the two traditional national parties of 6.6 percentage points.   The top three parties are capturing an even larger portion of support in the country than during the election, they are at 92.6% of the national support.  

Total support for top three parties in the last four elections

  • 2011 - 89.16%
  • 2008 - 82.09%
  • 2006 - 83.98%
  • 2004 - 82.04%

The last time the top three parties took more than 90% of the vote was in 1988 with 95.32%.   The current political landscape is in many ways much more like the era from before the 1993 election.   A return to a political landscape with three major parties taking more than 90% of the vote will mean that we are likely to mainly see majority governments.

There is nothing much to talk about in the regional results as they are so small.   The only one I would note is the shift in Ontario.  In the election the NDP and Liberals were very close to each other but this latest poll has an 11.4 percentage point gap between them in favour of the NDP.

The national decline of the NDP in the poll and the rise of the Liberals is only going to cause more fighting between the two parties, which of course will benefit the government.
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