Thursday, November 24, 2011

Berry Penner resigning

Barry Penner is officially resigning early in the new year to take a new job.   He had stepped down as AG in August but had said he would remain an MLA till the next election.

This means there will be another by-election in BC.  

Chilliwack - Hope is a riding the BC NDP has not hope of winning, they will not be a factor in this election.

2009 Election Results
Liberal Barry Penner    8985 53.28%
NDP Gwen O'Mahoney      5638 33.43%
Cons Hans Mulder        1198  7.10%
Green Guy Durin          951  5.64%
PF Dorothy-Jean O'Donnell 93  0.55%

2005  Election Results for Chilliwack Kent
Liberal Barry Penner          11368 57.14%
NDP Malcolm James              6534 32.84%
Green Hans Mulder              1651  8.30% 
Moderates David Anderson        240  1.21%
Youth Coalition Colin Wormworth 103  0.52%

2001 Election Results for Chilliwack Kent
Liberal Barry Penner   13814 74.88%
NDP Malcolm James       2155 11.68%
Green Larry Commodore   1511  8.19%
Marijuana David Ferguson 968  5.25%

1996 Election Results for Chilliwack
Liberal Barry Penner 9273 37.90%
NDP Rollie Keith     5989 24.48%
Ind Bob Chisholm     5736 23.44%
Reform Bill Wimpney  3237 13.23%
Green Steve Kisby     232  0.95%

1991 Election Results for Chilliwack
Liberal Bob Chisholm    8601 38.83%
SoCred John Jansen      7619 34.40%
NDP Gladys Doreen Brown 5688 25.68%
Green Steve Kisby        241  1.09%

I have no idea if the Hans Mulder, 2009 Conservative candidate, is the same person as the Hans Mulder that was the Green candidate in 2005.

The 1991 and 1996 Chilliwack riding is now two ridings, so the results from those years are not entirely comparable.    Bob Chisholm, who was elected as a BC Liberal in 1991 left the party and ran as an independent in 1996.

This riding is the sort of place the BC Conservatives should do well, in fact it is the place they have to do well in the coming by-election to have any relevance in the 2013 general election.   This by-election is John Cummins single chance to make a break through.

The right in BC has suffered several times in the last 20 years because they could not win a by-election when they had to.   

The Matsqui by-election on February 14th 1994 that the Liberals won was the final death of the Social Credit party.   Social Credit had to win this seat that they won in the 1991 election.

The Abbotsford by-election on May 3rd 1995 was the election BC Reform had to win to be able to be a serious major party in BC.   They lost and became a small rural rump that atrophied after the 1996 election to nothing. 

The third crucial life and death one was the December 7th 1999 Delta South by-election.   Bill Vander Zalm put all his effort into getting elected there as leader of the BC Reform Party but went down to a stunning defeat.  That was the end of any right wing alternative to the Liberals in BC till now.  

If the BC Conservatives do not win, they should accept that there is no place for them in BC politics.

If in Chilliwack Hope the BC Conservatives run a serious social conservative, we could see the BC Liberal vote boosted by people that have voted NDP in the past to ensure the Conservative does not win.    The rise of the BC Conservatives could lead to NDP friendly voters making strategic votes for a BC Liberal in the next election.

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