- Joe Trasolini NDP 6500 - 54.17%
- Dennis Marsden Liberal 3700 - 30.83%
- Christine Clark Conservative 1800 - 15.00%
I am basing this on a turnout of roughly 36%. By-elections tend to get low voter turnouts, something between 25% and 40% seems to typical in BC provincially and federally over the long term.
In the tight race last year for Vancouver Point Grey the turn out was 40%.
- Vancouver Fairview 2008 by-election 26.93%
- Vancouver Burrand 2008 by-election 23.21%
- Surrey Panorama Ridge 2004 52.15%, but this was the date of the worst voters list in BC with more than 1/4 of the voters missing, if we account for that the turnout falls to 40%
My final estimate is very similar to the estimate I made on Friday April 6th.