Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Final Prediction Port Moody Coquitlam By-election

Here is my prediction of the outcome of the Port Moody- Coquitlam by-election:

  • Joe Trasolini   NDP          6500 - 54.17%
  • Dennis Marsden  Liberal      3700 - 30.83%
  • Christine Clark Conservative 1800 - 15.00%

I am basing this on a turnout of roughly 36%.   By-elections tend to get low voter turnouts, something between 25% and 40% seems to typical in BC provincially and federally over the long term.

In the tight race last year for Vancouver Point Grey the turn out was 40%.

  • Vancouver Fairview 2008 by-election 26.93%
  • Vancouver Burrand 2008 by-election 23.21%
  • Surrey Panorama Ridge 2004 52.15%, but this was the date of the worst voters list in BC with more than 1/4 of the voters missing, if we account for that the turnout falls to 40%
I get no sense of a higher turn than expected turn out for Port Moody Coquitlam.   I also get no sense that anyone thinks that Joe Trasolini can lose so I get no sense of urgency for anyone in the campaign.  Any suspense is all with the Chilliwack-Hope race.

My final estimate is very similar to the estimate I made on Friday April 6th.
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