Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Gary Holman of the NDP was elected with less than 1/3 of the vote

In Saanich North the Islands New Democrat Gary Holman was elected with a very narrow margin, only 379 voters between first and third and a lead of only 1.2 percentage points.  The consequence is that Gary Holman was elected by less than 1/3 of the voters and this is not a common occurrence in BC, only 24 times in over 2100 campaigns in ridings since 1871.

In total 30 candidates have been elected in BC with less than 34% of the vote::
  1. 28.68% Andrew McCreight Creery Prov Party Vancouver City 1924 (multi)
  2. 29.94% Ian MacKenzie Liberal Vancouver City 1924 (multi)
  3. 30.07% Donald Brothers Social Credit Rossland Trail 1958 by
  4. 30.34% David Strachan Liberal Dewdney 1933
  5. 30.90% Christopher McRae Liberal Vanccouver City 1924 (multi)
  6. 31.11% Gordon Gibson Liberal North Vancouver Capilano 1974 by
  7. 31.22% Franics Browne Canadian Labour Party Burnaby 1924
  8. 31.26% Cyril Davie Conservative Cowichan Newcastle 1924
  9. 31.24% Irvince Corbett Social Credit Yale 1960
  10. 31.34% John Melvin Bryan Liberal North Vancouver 1924
  11. 31.68% Victor Odlum Liberal Vancouver City 1924 (multi)
  12. 31.89% Jack Wesigerber Reform Peace River South 1996
  13. 32.00% David Anderson Liberal Victoria 1972 (multi)
  14. 32.19% Gerald Anderson NDP Kamloops 1972 
  15. 32.23% Dorothy Steeves CCP North Vancouver 1937
  16. 32.38% Newell Morrison Liberal Victoria 1972 (multi)
  17. 32.63% William Asselstine Liberal Atlin 1933
  18. 32.83% Thomas Menzies People's Party Comox 1920
  19. 32.89% Colin Gabelmann NDP North Vancouver Seymour 1972
  20. 32.93% Leonard Shepherd CCF Delta 1937
  21. 33.20% Kenneth MacDonald Liberal North Okanagan 1924
  22. 33.27% Gary Holman NDP Saanich North and the Islands 2013
  23. 33.46% Frank Putnam Liberal Nelson Creston 1941
  24. 33.58% Samuel Guthrie CCF Cowichan Newcastle 1937
  25. 33.76% Joseph Clearihue Liberal Victoria 1920 (multi)
  26. 33.77% Donald Robinson Social Credit Lillooet 1963
  27. 33.90% James Gorst NDP Esquimalt 1972 
  28. 33.93% Allan Williams Liberal West Vancouver Howe Sound 1972
  29. 33.93% John Melvin Bryan Liberal Mackenzie 1937
  30. 33.97% Jackie Pement NDP Bulkley Valley Stikine 1991
Candidates on this list in the last 40 years are in bold and underlined
BC long had multi member ridings, the results shown here are the actual percentage multiplied by the number of candidates to be elected as an equivilent to a single member election. 
Results for 1952 and 1953 elections are not listed because a preferential ballot was used

The results in Saanich North the Islands in 2013 are very much out of snyc with the norm of elections in BC, especially in the last 40 years.

By Party
Liberals     14
NDP/CCF/CLP  10
Socred/Reform 4
Others        3

The results clump by election with 18 of 30 being in one of three elections
Election
1924  8 of 48
1972  6 of 55
1937  4 of 48
By-elect 3
1920  2 of 47
1933  2 of 48
1941  1 of 48
1960  1 of 52
1963  1 of 52
1991  1 of 75
1996  1 of 75
2013  1 of 85

Out of the last 13 elections, only in three of them does someone make this list.

 The 1924 election saw three strong parties contest it.  In 1972 four parties managed to win seats and the two smallest ones had regional strength.   1937 also saw three strong parties but 1941 was even closer but did only had one result on this list.  

What will 2017 bring?   If the Green Party is stronger and serious party on the right emerges, the chances of candidates winning with less than 1/3 of the vote becomes much more likely.   





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